Time trend and change point of reference evapotranspiration over Iran

Identifying changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) can help in future planning of crop water requirements and water resources for high water-use efficiency. This study analyzes the ET_o trends on a seasonal and annual timescale by applying various statistical tools to data from 41 Iranian weather stations during the period between 1966 and 2005. The Mann–Kendall test after removal of significant serial correlation was used to determine the statistical significance of the trends, and the change point in the ET_o time series was determined using the cumulative sum technique. The results showed that (1) the significant increasing trends of annual ET_o were observed at seven stations which are located in different parts of Iran, (2) the stations located at the southeast, northeast, and northwest corners of Iran experienced the highest positive change of annual ET_o, and (3) the changes in seasonal ET_o were most pronounced in the winter season, both in terms of trend magnitude and the number of stations with significant trends.     

Vertical profiles of aerosol black carbon in the atmospheric boundary layer over a tropical coastal station: Perturbations during an annular solar eclipse

Altitude profiles of aerosol black carbon (BC) in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over a tropical coastal station, Trivandrum have been examined on two days using an aethalometer attached to a tethered balloon. One of these days (15th January, 2010) coincided with a (annular) solar eclipse, the longest of this century at this location, commenced at 11:05 local time and ended by 15:05, lasting for 7 min and 15 s (from 13:10:42), with its maximum contact occurring at ~ 13:14 IST with ~ 92% annularity, thereby providing an opportunity to understand the eclipse induced perturbations. Concurrent measurements of the ABL parameters such as air temperature, relative humidity and pressure were also made on these days to describe the response of the ABL to the eclipse. BC profiles, in general, depicted similar features up to an altitude of ~ 200 m on the eclipse day and control day, above which it differed conspicuously with profiles on eclipse day showing increasingly lower concentration as we moved to higher altitudes. Examination of the meteorological profiles showed that the altitude of maximum convection rapidly fell down during the eclipse period compared to that on control day indicating a rather shallow convection on eclipse day. Comparison of diurnal variations of BC at the surface level showed that the rate of decrease in BC during daytime on the eclipse day was smaller than that on the control day due to the reduced convection, shallow ABL and consequent reduction in the ventilation coefficient. Moreover the time of the nocturnal increase has advanced by ~ 1:30 h on the eclipse day, occurred at around 19:30 IST in contrast to all the other days of January 2010, where this increase usually occur well after 20:30 IST, with a mean value of 21:00 IST. This is attributed to the weak sea-breeze penetration during the eclipse day, which led to an early onset of the land breeze.     

Estimation of green grass/herb biomass from airborne hyperspectral imagery using spectral indices and partial least squares regression

The main objective was to determine whether partial least squares (PLS) regression improves grass/herb biomass estimation when compared with hyperspectral indices, that is normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and red-edge position (REP). To achieve this objective, fresh green grass/herb biomass and airborne images (HyMap) were collected in the Majella National Park, Italy in the summer of 2005. The predictive performances of hyperspectral indices and PLS regression models were then determined and compared using calibration (n = 30) and test (n = 12) data sets. The regression model derived from NDVI computed from bands at 740 and 771 nm produced a lower standard error of prediction (SEP = 264 g m⁻²) on the test data compared with the standard NDVI involving bands at 665 and 801 nm (SEP = 331 g m⁻²), but comparable results with REPs determined by various methods (SEP = 261 to 295 g m⁻²). PLS regression models based on original, derivative and continuum-removed spectra produced lower prediction errors (SEP = 149 to 256 g m⁻²) compared with NDVI and REP models. The lowest prediction error (SEP = 149 g m⁻², 19% of mean) was obtained with PLS regression involving continuum-removed bands. In conclusion, PLS regression based on airborne hyperspectral imagery provides a better alternative to univariate regression involving hyperspectral indices for grass/herb biomass estimation in the Majella National Park.     

Mapping beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest structure with airborne hyperspectral imagery

Estimating forest structural attributes using multispectral remote sensing is challenging because of the saturation of multispectral indices at high canopy cover. The objective of this study was to assess the utility of hyperspectral data in estimating and mapping forest structural parameters including mean diameter-at-breast height (DBH), mean tree height and tree density of a closed canopy beech forest (Fagus sylvatica L.). Airborne HyMap images and data on forest structural attributes were collected from the Majella National Park, Italy in July 2004. The predictive performances of vegetation indices (VI) derived from all possible two-band combinations (VI_(i,j) = (R_i − R_j)/(R_i + R_j), where R_i and R_j = reflectance in any two bands) were evaluated using calibration (n = 33) and test (n = 20) data sets. The potential of partial least squares (PLS) regression, a multivariate technique involving several bands was also assessed. New VIs based on the contrast between reflectance in the red-edge shoulder (756–820 nm) and the water absorption feature centred at 1200 nm (1172–1320 nm) were found to show higher correlations with the forest structural parameters than standard VIs derived from NIR and visible reflectance (i.e. the normalised difference vegetation index, NDVI). PLS regression showed a slight improvement in estimating the beech forest structural attributes (prediction errors of 27.6%, 32.6% and 46.4% for mean DBH, height and tree density, respectively) compared to VIs using linear regression models (prediction errors of 27.8%, 35.8% and 48.3% for mean DBH, height and tree density, respectively). Mean DBH was the best predicted variable among the stand parameters (calibration R² = 0.62 for an exponential model fit and standard error of prediction = 5.12 cm, i.e. 25% of the mean). The predicted map of mean DBH revealed high heterogeneity in the beech forest structure in the study area. The spatial variability of mean DBH occurs at less than 450 m. The DBH map could be useful to forest management in many ways, e.g. thinning of coppice to promote diameter growth, to assess the effects of management on forest structure or to detect changes in the forest structure caused by anthropogenic and natural factors.     

Hydrological drought in the west of Iran and possible association with large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns

Drought is a slow‐onset, creeping natural hazard which is an inevitable part of normal climate fluctuation especially in arid and semiarid regions, and its variability can be explained in terms of large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Standardized streamflow index (SSFI) was utilized to characterize hydrological drought in the west of Iran for the hydrological years of 1969–1970 to 2008–2009. The linkage of atmospheric circulation patterns (ENSO, NAO) to hydrological drought was also used to reveal relations of climate variability affecting hydrological drought. River discharges exhibited negative anomalies during the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) which caused the extreme and severe droughts in the study area, being strongest during the hydrological years of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009. The analysis also indicated the teleconnection impact of ENSO on the hydrological drought severity in the first half of the hydrological year especially between November and March. Moreover, the concurrent and lag correlations revealed a weak relationship between the SSFI drought severity and the NAO index. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bianchi type-V bulk viscous string cosmological model in Saez-Ballester scalar-tensor theory of gravitation

In this paper, a spatially homogeneous and anisotropic Bianchi type-V cosmological model is considered in a scalar-tensor theory of gravitation proposed by Saez and Ballester (in Phys. Lett. A 113:467, 1986) when the source for energy momentum tensor is a bulk viscous fluid containing one dimensional cosmic strings. The field equations being highly non-linear, we obtain a determinate solution using the plausible physical conditions (i) the scalar of expansion of the space-time is proportional to shear scalar (ii) the baratropic equation of state for pressure and density and (iii) the bulk viscous pressure is proportional to the energy density. It is interesting to observe that cosmic strings do not survive in this model. Some physical and kinematical properties of the model are also discussed.     

Bianchi type-II Bulk viscous string cosmological model in self-creation theory of gravitation

A spatially homogeneous and anisotropic LRS Bianchi type-II space-time is considered in the frame work of second self-creation theory of gravitation proposed by Barber (Gen. Relativ. Gravit. 14:117, 1982) in the presence of bulk viscous fluid containing one dimensional cosmic strings. A determinate solution of the field equations is presented using special variation for Hubble’s parameter given by Berman (Nuovo Cimento B 74:182, 1983) and some physically plausible conditions. The solution represents a bulk viscous string model in the second self-creation cosmology. We have also discussed some physical and kinematical properties of the model.     

Optimization of design parameters for controlled rocking steel braced dual-frames

A controlled rocking concentrically steel braced frame(CR-CSBF) is introduced as an alternative to conventional methods to prevent major structural damage during large earthquakes. It is equipped with elastic post-tensioned(PT) cables and replaceable devices or fuses to provide overturning resistance and dissipate energy, respectively. Although CR-CSBFs are not officially legalized in globally valid codes for new buildings, it is expected to be presented in them in the near future. The main goal...     

Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently?

Observations have shown that the Indian Ocean is consistently warming and its warm pool is expanding, particularly in the recent decades. This paper attempts to investigate the reason behind these observations. Under global warming scenario, it is expected that the greenhouse gas induced changes in air–sea fluxes will enhance the warming. Surprisingly, it is found that the net surface heat fluxes over Indian Ocean warm pool (IOWP) region alone cannot explain the consistent warming. The warm pool area anomaly of IOWP is strongly correlated with the sea surface height anomaly, suggesting an important role played by the ocean advection processes in warming and expansion of IOWP. The structure of lead/lag correlations further suggests that Oceanic Rossby waves might be involved in the warming. Using heat budget analysis of several Ocean data assimilation products, it is shown that the net surface heat flux (advection) alone tends to cool (warm) the Ocean. Based on above observations, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled positive feedback mechanism for explaining the consistent warming and expansion of IOWP. Warming over IOWP induces an enhancement of convection in central equatorial Indian ocean, which causes anomalous easterlies along the equator. Anomalous easterlies in turn excite frequent Indian ocean Dipole events and cause anti-cyclonic wind stress curl in south-east and north-east equatorial Indian ocean. The anomalous wind stress curl triggers anomalous downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, thereby deepening the thermocline and resulting in advection of warm waters towards western Indian ocean. This acts as a positive feedback and results in more warming and westward expansion of IOWP.