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1.
The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence. 相似文献
2.
The influence of emergent and submerged macrophytes on flow velocity and turbulence production is demonstrated in a 140 m reach of the River Blackwater in Farnborough, Hampshire, UK. Macrophyte growth occurs in patches and is dominated by Sparganium erectum and Sparganium emersum. In May 2001, patches of S. erectum were already established and occupied 18% of the channel area. The flow adjusted to these (predominantly lateral) patches by being channelled through a narrower cross‐section. The measured velocity profiles showed a logarithmic form, with deviations attributable to topographic control. The channel bed was the main source of turbulence. In September 2001, in‐stream macrophytes occupied 27% of the channel, and overhanging bank vegetation affected 32% of the area. Overall flow resistance, described by Manning's n, showed a threefold increase that could be attributed to the growth of S. emersum in the middle of the channel. Velocity profiles showed different characteristic forms depending on their position relative to plant stems and leaves. The overall velocity field had a three‐dimensional structure. Turbulence intensities were generally higher and turbulence profiles tended to mirror the velocity profiles. Evidence for the generation of coherent eddies was provided by ratios of the root mean square velocities. Spectral analysis identified deviations from the Kolmogorov ?5/3 power law and provided statistical evidence for a spectral short‐cut, indicative of additional turbulence production. This was most marked for the submerged vegetation and, in some instances, the overhanging bank vegetation. The long strap‐like leaves of S. emersum being aligned approximately parallel to the flow and the highly variable velocity field created by the patch arrangement of macrophytes suggest that the dominant mechanism for turbulence production is vortex shedding along shear zones. Wake production around individual stems of S. emersum close to the bed may also be important locally. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Katherine M. Papastephanou Stephen M. Bollens Anne M. Slaughter 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2006,53(25-26):3078
Cross-shelf distribution and abundance of copepod nauplii and copepodids were measured during three summer upwelling seasons (2000–2002) in a coastal upwelling zone off northern California. These 3 years varied considerably in the intensity of winds, abundance of chlorophyll, and water temperature. The cruises in 2000 were characterized by relaxation conditions, with generally high levels of chlorophyll and high water temperature. The cruises in 2001 and 2002 were dominated by strong and persistent upwelling events, leading to lower chlorophyll and water temperatures. The copepod assemblage was dominated by Oithona spp., Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp., with Metridia pacifica (lucens), Microsetella rosea, Oncaea spp. and Tortanus discaudatus also common during all 3 years. The cross-shelf distribution of copepods was generally shifted offshore during upwelling and onshore during relaxation events, although some variability between species occurred. Abundance of all life stages generally exhibited a negative correlation with cross-shelf transport averaged over at least 1–4 days and lagged by 0–3 days, indicating lower abundances during and immediately after active upwelling. However, copepod nauplii seemed to respond positively to wind events lasting 1–5 days followed by a period of relaxation lasting 6 or 7 days. These rapid rates of change in abundance are probably too great to be due to in situ growth and reproduction alone; physical processes must also play a role. These results suggest a highly dynamic relationship between copepods and upwelling events off northern California, with species-specific responses to upwelling to be expected. 相似文献
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A series of transient tests were conducted to determine the seafloor coupling characteristics of a new ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) developed for the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR). The OBS comprises a large recording package and a separate sensor package that is deployed from the recording package. In addition to the coupling characteristics of both the sensor and the recording packages, the seismic energy radiated from the main recording package as a result of motion of the recording package was measured. The observed vertical coupling resonances of both the recording package and the sensor package are in good agreement with those predicted by a simple model of soil-structure interaction. The most important result of this study is that significant energy is radiated from the recording package in response to horizontal motions of the recording package. When the sensor package is 1 m from the recording package, the amplitude of the recorded signal is similar to that recorded in the recording package. In the field, this effect will result in distortion of seismic signals and increased background noise recorded by the sensor package if the recording package is disturbed by seafloor currents or biological activity. The amplitude of this signal attenuates by approximately a factor of two as sensor/recorder separation is increased from 1 to 6 m, suggesting that an improved response can be achieved by increasing the separation between the recording package and the sensors. This effect is much less severe for vertical disturbances of the recording package. 相似文献
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R. E. Kirk K. Robertson R. B. Whitmarsh P. R. Miles 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1991,13(2):153-160
A technique has been devised for firing arrays of bottom shots on the ocean bed in depths upto 4000 m or more. Ten kilogram explosive charges are dropped from the surface while the shooting ship is navigated acoustically. They are detonated at preset times by an electronic timer which initiates an electrical detonator, detonating cord and cast PETN/TNT explosive. Ranges to ocean bottom seismographs, and the shot instants, can be calculated from the arrival-time differences of the direct and surface-reflected water waves. The accuracy, which is dependent on water-depth and range, was better than 22 m in range and 14 msec in shot instant for our experiments. 相似文献
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Retrograde fluid infiltration in the high-grade Modum Complex South Norway: evidence for age,source and REE mobility 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Ingrid Anne Munz David Wayne Håkon Austrheim 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,116(1-2):32-46
The high-grade metamorphic basement of the Modum Complex, South Norway,exhibits retrogradation and alteration due to late stage fluid infiltration.Extensive alteration zones of albite-and calcite-rich veining occur especiallywithin and around numerous metagabbros. The gabbros, intruded at 1224±15Ma, are now partly altered to amphibolites due to the subsequent high-grade metamorphism.Two generations of albite-rich rocks have been recognized: (1) a fine-grained, foliated type;(2) a coarse-grained, crosscutting type. Both types show a typical greenschist facies mineralassemblage; albite ± actinolite ± chlorite ± talc. The calcite veins/dykesrepresent a younger generation of veins than both albite-rich types. U–Pb data for spheneof type (1) yielded an age of 1080±3 Ma, determining a point on the retrogradeP-T-t path of the Modum Complex. Increasing albitisation of themetagabbros leads to a decrease in(143ND/144Nd)oand an increase in (87Sr/86)o.Albite- and calcite-rich samples show negative Nd and positive Sr, suggesting that fluids which interacted with the metagabbros originated from a crustal reservoir. The Nd and Sr isotopic data show disequilibrium at the microscale as well as at the macroscale. Negative Sm–Nd model ages of the albite-rich rocks demonstrate that rare-earth elements (REEs) were mobile and fractionated during albitisation. 相似文献