利用国防科技大学全球中期数值天气预报模式(YinHe Global Spetral model,YHGS)产品驱动WRF对2018年7月4日华中地区暴雨过程进行模拟,并与ERA-interim资料作初始场模拟结果对比,评估YHGS模式产品在此次暴雨过程预报中的应用能力。结果表明:(1)WRF-YHGS对2018年7月4日华中地区暴雨过程有一定的预报能力,其模拟的大尺度环流形势、水汽收支量变化趋势与WRF-ERA有着很好的一致性,YHGS模式产品驱动中尺度数值预报是可行的。(2)WRF-YHGS模拟效果较WRF-ERA差,但大雨量级WRF-ERA湿偏差较大,两组试验各物理量模拟结果存在一定差距,且随着积分时间的增加差异逐渐增大。(3)WRF-YHGS、WRF-ERA模拟结果的差异主要来自YHGS与ERA初始场中差异较大的次天气尺度运动和YHGS全球模式预报场误差两个方面。
A heavy rainfall event in south China was simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
with three microphysics schemes, including the Morrison scheme, Thompson scheme, and Milbrandt and Yau scheme
(MY), which aim to evaluate the capability to reproduce the precipitation and radar echo reflectivity features, and to
evaluate evaluate their differences in microphysics and the associated thermodynamical and dynamical feedback. Results
show that all simulations reproduce the main features crucial for rainfall formation. Compared with the observation, the
MY scheme performed better than the other two schemes in terms of intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall. Due to
abundant water vapor, the accretion of cloud droplets by raindrops was the dominant process in the growth of raindrops
while the contribution of melting was a secondary effect. Riming processes, in which frozen hydrometeors collect cloud
droplets mainly, contributed more to the growth of frozen hydrometeors than the Bergeron process. Extremely abundant
snow and ice were produced in the Thompson and MY schemes respectively by a deposition process. The MY scheme
has the highest condensation and evaporation, but the lowest deposition. As a result, in the MY scheme, the enhanced
vertical gradient of condensation heating and evaporation cooling at low levels produces strong positive and weak
negative potential vorticity in Guangdong, and may favor the formation of the enhanced rainfall center over there. 相似文献