Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Uncertainty analysis of CO_2 flux components in subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation

We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ...     

阿尔金断裂西段首期GPS观测资料处理及初步结果

本文介绍了中国科学院青藏高原研究所在阿尔金断裂西段进行GPS观测的剖面布设和首期观测情况.利用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对首期观测数据进行了处理,并将结果归算到区域参考框架下.GAMIT计算得到的\"准观测值\"均满足所须精度,其中单天解标准化均方差小于0.3,基线的平均相对精度为1.8×10-9.GLOBK在区域参考框架...     

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF TEMPORAL-SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS IN TROPICAL OCEANS

The singular value decomposition (SVD) of air-sea interaction in the tropical western,central,and eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans has been conducted by using theNCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis 1000 hPa monthly wind field and COADS monthly sea surfacetemperature (SST).Comparisons of the results suggest that these areas can be divided into threetypes from the viewpoint of air-sea interaction:tropical central-eastern Pacific belongs to monistictype,in which ENSO is the sole important process;tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceansbelong to dualistic type,in which in addition to ENSO.there should be an another importantprocess;tropical Atlantic Ocean belongs to pluralistic type,in which the process is complicatedand the ENSO cycle is not evident.     

大亚湾的环境研究

大亚湾自然条件优越,生物资源丰富,是当前广东经济开发的“热点”。本文从生态环境的角度讨论大亚湾的环境质量问题,并指出今后大亚湾的经济开发应注意环境保护问题。     

密度权稳健估计

利用观测量分布函数作为权函数的计算公式,分析了密度权法的抗差性和收敛速率,证实了用密度权法处理含粗差数据是行之有效的。     

中国台湾南部及其周边岛屿现今地壳形变的位错模型

通过建立非震形变的位错模型,用混合全局反演方法,拟合了中国台湾南部1990-1995年间的GPS观测资料.根据地质构造和地震观测,构筑了包括6个刚性块体和19个断层的简单模型.反演结果表明,菲律宾海板块以(69±2)mm/a,方向为317°±2°的速度与欧亚板块会聚,其中约一半的会聚率在台东纵谷消耗掉,另外部分则平均分配在其西边的块体交界处.菲律宾海板块和中央山脉地质区均向西北方向挤压,过了中央山脉后,块体运动呈扇形分布,与应力方向一致.西部麓山地质区与滨海平原地质区交界处的断层均以逆冲分量为主,由南向北倾角逐渐变小,断层宽度一般为10km左右,均表现为强锁定,历史上的大地震多发生在这个地区.     

OBE理念下GIS空间分析课程思政教学设计与实践

以成果导向教育(Outcome Based Education,OBE)和课程思政理念为指导进行课程设计与实践,是地理信息科学专业应用型人才培养的发展趋势.围绕专业人才培养目标和课程教学目标,以反向设计为原则,结合专业毕业要求,确定课程学习成果,然后以成果为导向,设计实施教学改革,将思政元素有机融入专业教学中,培养学生...     

攀西地区特色水果的市场定位

攀西地区具有发展各类果树得天独厚的自然资源优势。根据攀西特色水果的特点和产业发展的条件,在大区域背景下,分析了攀西地区特色水果在国内市场的竞争优势,明确了攀西地区特色水果的市场定位:大力发展早熟枇杷、石榴和晚熟芒果及深加工,以品质的优良、上市时间的优势占领高端市场,把资源优势转化为产品优势和经济优势。在此基础上,提出了攀西地区特色水果发展中需要重视的问题。     

论桩基施工中流砂现象处理

地下水流动对土体产生渗透力；当渗透力大于土体的抗剪强度，土体破坏，也就是当施工造成地下水水力坡度超过砂层的临界水力坡度即产生流砂现象．运用水文地质工程地质学方面的原理其处理方法有两类：—是莫尔一库仑法：即c法和φ法；二是临界水力坡度法(Ic法)．