The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

Infiltration at the Tai rain forest (Ivory Coast): Measurements and modelling

Infiltration experiments have been performed at three sites along a well-known catena under virgin tropical rain forest using a portable sprinkling infiltrometer. Experimentally determined infiltration curves are presented. Infiltration curves are also simulated on the basis of the Mein-Larson equation. The parameters for this model have been obtained from the infiltration curves (saturated conductivity) and simple soil moisture determinations (fillable porosity). The agreement between experimentally determined and modelled infiltration is reasonable, provided (a) saturated conductivity as derived from the experimental data is corrected, (b) a storage parameter, also derived from the experimental data, is added to the Mein-Larson model, and (c) the decline in soil porosity with depth is either small or occurs abruptly at shallow depth. Comparison of observed infiltration rates with rainfall intensity shows that Horton Overland Flow has to occur naturally at least on the middle and lower section of the catena. Despite the fact that most parameters can be estimated in principle from basic soil data, it remains advisable to obtain sprinkling infiltrometer field measurements, because of soil variability due to dynamic surface conditions, macroporosity, air entrapment, and irregularity of the wetting front.     

淇、卫河流域“96·8”致洪暴雨过程的数值模拟

应用LASGREMM模式 ,对淇、卫河流域“96·8”致洪暴雨过程进行了模拟预报分析。结果表明 ,LAS GREM模式不仅能较准确地预报淇、卫河流域暴雨落区 ,而且可以进一步分析天气过程的特点及演变情况     

Soil respiration in tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna, SW China

With the static opaque chamber and gas chromatography technique, from January 2003 to January 2004 soil respiration was investigated in a tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna, SW China. In this study three treatments were applied, each with three replicates: A (bare soil), B (soil+litter), and C (soil+litter+seedling). The results showed that soil respiration varied seasonally, low from December 2003 to February 2004, and high from June to July 2004. The annual average values of CO2 efflux from soil respiration differed among the treatments at 1% level, with the rank of C (14642 mgCO2· m-2. h-1)＞B (12807 mgCO2· m-2. h-1)＞A (9532 mgCO2· m-2. h-1). Diurnal variation in soil respiration was not apparent due to little diurnal temperate change in Xishuangbanna. There was a parabola relationship between soil respiration and soil moisture at 1% level. Soil respiration rates were higher when soil moisture ranged from 35% to 45%. There was an exponential relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature (at a depth of 5cm in mineral soil) at 1% level. The calculated Q1o values in this study,ranging from 2.03 to 2.36, were very near to those of tropical soil reported. The CO2 efflux in 2003was 5.34 kgCO2· m-2. a-1 from soil plus litter plus seedling, of them 3.48 kgCO2· m-2. a-1 from soil (accounting for 62.5%), 1.19 kgCO2· m-2. a-1 from litter (22.3%) and 0.67 kgCO2·m-2. a-1 from seedling (12.5%).     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Chemical forms of heavy metal contaminants in sediments of Miyun reservoir

The chemical forms, spatial distribution and sources of As, Hg, Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments of the Miyun reservoir were studied. The results of sequential extraction demonstrate that most of As, Pb and Zn were bound to the residual fraction, Hg was associated with the sulfide fraction while Cd was associated with the carbonate fraction and the residual fraction. On the vertical profiles the concentrations of the heavy metals in total and each fractions mostly decreased with increasing depths in sediments, suggesting that the heavy metals input from the upstream watershed increases yearly. Summation of the residual fraction, the sulfide fraction and the carbonate fraction accounts for 60.03%―85.60% of the total heavy metal contents in the sediments, which represent the geochemical background values of the elements and relate closely to soil erosion. Results of the main factor analysis show that most sediments of the reservoir come from the upstream soil erosion, the point source pollution and domestic waste. Moreover, the microbial activities taking place on the sediment-water interface are also one of the major factors to cause the increasing content of the organic matter fraction and the iron-manganese oxide fraction. Environmental change of the reservoir water could make the removability of the heavy metals increase, leading to the increase of their concentrations in pore water in sediments, and imperiling water quality of the reservoir.     

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

陆态网络腾冲台连续重力观测质量分析

对陆态网络腾冲台2012-07-01~2013-06-30连续重力观测资料进行处理,获得该台站观测精度及噪声水平。结果表明,腾冲台1~100s噪声水平在9×10^-8ms^-2左右,100s~100min噪声水平在0.3×10^-8ms^-2左右,白噪声水平为0.509×10^-8ms^-2,对O₁波、M₂波等主要潮波振幅因子测量精度达到SG-053超导重力仪的观测量级,其中M₂波振幅因子测量精度最高（为0.000 18）。腾冲台可为川滇地区强震和腾冲火山活动监测、震前重力变化及相关研究提供高精度、可靠的连续重力观测资料。     

结合被动微波和光学遥感的“超级寒潮”广东 地表温度特征及其对马铃薯生长的影响

利用被动微波可穿透云层的优势,基于GCOM-W1/AMSR2（Global Change Observation Mission-Water/ Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2）星载被动微波传感器的多通道亮度温度数据,反演了2016年1月下旬“超级寒潮”过程的广东省每日地表温度,分析了寒潮过程中广东省地表温度的时空变化特征。结果表明：在寒潮前后,广东省地表温度呈现出明显的先下降而后上升的趋势,寒潮过程带来的地表最低温度在广东北部大部分地区达到了277 K（4℃）,西南大部分地区为280~282 K（7~9℃）,其余大部分地区278~279 K（5~6℃）;降温幅度在广东南部地区达到了8~12 K（8~12℃）,北部大部分地区为5~7 K（5~7℃）。此外,利用归一化植被指数（NDVI）对植被生长的指示作用,基于HJ-1 A/B卫星的CCD传感器的多通道反射率数据,计算了近3年冬季广东省典型马铃薯种植区域马铃薯叶片的NDVI值,结果表明：马铃薯叶片的NDVI值在此次寒潮过程后出现了明显的下降,大部分地区（55.4%）马铃薯NDVI降低了0.1~0.2,部分地区（17.2%）马铃薯NDVI下降了0.2~0.3;进一步对比此次“超级寒潮”后同时段的前2年数据,发现寒潮后马铃薯叶片NDVI相对于正常年份也低了0.2,表明马铃薯叶片NDVI下降的主要原因是寒潮带来的低温,而不只是马铃薯的正常老化现象。NDVI的降低表明大部分地区马铃薯生长受到了抑制,马铃薯生长状况的这一变化也通过现场调查得到了证实。     

Case Study of Fog Predictability for an Event with Cold-Front Synoptic Pattern

Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism of fog formation associated with synoptic-scale circulation. One frequent synoptic pattern of fog formation in this area is associated with cold front passage(cold-front synoptic pattern, CFSP). This paper explored the predictability of a typical CFSP fog event from the perspective of analyzing key characteristics of synoptic-scale circulation determining fog forecasting performance and the possible mechanism. The event was ensemble forecasted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two groups of ensemble members with good and bad forecasting performance were selected and composited. Results showed that the predictability of this case was largely determined by the simulated strengths of the cold-front circulation(i.e., trough and ridge and the associated surface high). The bad-performing members tended to have a weaker ridge behind a stronger trough, and associated higher pressure over land and a weaker surface high over the sea, leading to an adverse impact on strength and direction of steering flows that inhibit warm moist advection and enhance cold dry advection transported to the focus region. Associated with this cold dry advection, adverse synoptic conditions of stratification and moisture for fog formation were produced, consequently causing failure of fog forecasting in the focus region. This study highlights the importance of accurate synoptic-scale information for improved CFSP fog forecasting, and enhances understanding of fog predictability from perspective of synoptic-scale circulation.