第23周太阳活动峰年北京天文台太阳射电观测

An introduction to the instrumonts to be used for solar radio observations in Beijing in Solar Cycle 23 is made in this paper. They are 10cm solar radio telescope which has been used for a long time,and 1.0～2.0GHz,2.6～3.8GHz and 5.2～7.6GHz spectrometers. The former two spectrometers has passed a test,showing high guality,and the 5.2～7.6GHz one will be in operation from 1999. It is believed that highl gualified data should be obtained in the next solar cycle.     

粗糙神经网络在森林火灾预警中的应用

利用神经网络和粗糙集处理不确定性问题的优势，提出一种粗糙集结合神经网络进行森林火灾预测模型。通过与传统预测模型相比较，证明了该方法的有效性。     

森林火险气象指数及其构建方法回顾

森林火灾是威胁地球生态的主要灾害之一。为实现对林区起火可能性大小、火灾强度、火灾蔓延速度以及火灾扑救难易程度进行评估和预测，国内外专家学者利用森林火灾与气象条件之间的关系研制了诸多森林火险气象指数的构建方法。作者对近几十年来国内外森林火险气象指数的研究工作进行回顾和总结，得出广泛应用的火险指数可以归纳为指数查对法、综合指标法和统计回归法等3种类型，究其原理和使用效果，各有优缺点。在实际使用过程中，需要结合我国的气候和环境特点进行适用性修正和完善。     

陕北春季森林火灾气象条件分析

通过对1989~2004年间陕北春季森林火灾发生期气象资料进行研究分析,指出春季2~5月份林火期气候特征、森林火灾易发期天气环流特征,林火的发生与冷空气活动密切相关。在春季森林火灾期地面气象要素也呈现出一定的变化规律。     

泰安市世行贷款二期项目区地下水监测研究

为合理开发利用地下水资源提供科学依据,确保地下水资源可持续利用,防止由于超采地下水而诱发环境危害,对泰安市世行贷款二期项目区地下水动态变化规律、水资源的分布特征进行了分析研究,提出了地下水合理开发利用的建议.     

近28a河南主要农业气象灾害及其影响

利用河南1978-2005年农作物受灾面积资料和新中国成立以来的产量资料，分析了河南主要农业气象灾害的变化特征和对农业生产的影响，结果表明，28a来河南农作物受灾面积呈上升趋势，其阶段性变化为20世纪70年代后期至80年代前期较少，80年代中后期至21世纪初明显增多，最近几年又明显减少。气候条件对农业生产的影响以50年代最有利，80年代次之，70年代较差，60年代最差。     

Change of Gas Hydrate Reservoir and Its Effect on the Environment in Xisha Trough since the Last Glacial Maximum

In this article, Milkov and Sassen’s model is selected to calculate the thickness of the gas hydrate stable zone (GHSZ) and the amount of gas hydrate in the Xisha (西沙) Trough at present and at the last glacial maximum (LGM), respectively, and the effects of the changes in the bottom water temperature and the sea level on these were also discussed. The average thickness of the GHSZ in Xisha Trough is estimated to be 287 m and 299 m based on the relationship between the GHSZ thickness and the water depth established in this study at present and at LGM, respectively. Then, by assuming that the distributed area of gas hydrates is 8 000 km2 and that the gas hydrate saturation is 1.2% of the sediment volume, the amounts of gas hydrate are estimated to be ~2.76×1010 m3 and ~2.87×1010 m3, and the volumes of hydrate-bound gases are ~4.52×1012 m3 and ~4.71×1012 m3 at present and at LGM, re- spectively. The above results show that the thickness of GHSZ decreases with the bottom water tem- perature increase and increases with the sea level increase, wherein the effect of the former is larger than that of the latter, that the average thickness of GHSZ in Xisha Trough had been reduced by ~12 m, and that 1.9×1011 m3 of methane is released from approximately 1.1×109 m3 of gas hydrate since LGM. The released methane should have greatly affected the environment.     

Instability characteristics of the East Asian Monsoon recorded by high-resolution loess sections from the last interglacial (MIS5)

The selection of high-resolution loess sections is needed in order to determine the climatic variability of the East Asian Monsoon during the last interglacial. Two sequences of S1 on the eastern and west-ern sides of the Liupan Mountain were both composed of five paleosol layers and four loess layers,indicating that there were five strong summer monsoon events and four strong winter monsoon events in MIS5. This corresponds with other records of the East Asian Monsoon,along with NGRIP and the North Atlantic records,implying that the climate of the Northern Hemisphere was very instable during the last interglacial. Two layers of paleosols and one layer of loess had developed during MIS5a and MIS5c. Compared with MIS5e,the climate in MIS5a and MIS5c fluctuated more intensively on a millen-nial scale,whereas the climate was relatively stable in MIS5e.     

西藏改则西北部喀湖错把拉湖区13kaBP以来的湖泊沉积与环境演化

通过对藏北喀湖错把拉湖区湖积剖面的研究,建立了该区13kaBP以来的沉积序列,并将13kaBP以来的气候划分为2个干冷期和2个湿润期。其中2个湿润期和第二旋回的干冷期可分别与北半球第一、二新高温期和第二新冰期大致对比,基本反映了末次冰消期以来全球气候变化的一般规律,青藏高原腹地对于全球气候变化的响应是比较敏锐的。     

磁法在煤火探测中的应用

对采自宁夏汝箕沟煤田上覆盖层的原岩样品在温度作用下的磁性变化进行了系统研究.通过分析煤火区不同燃烧阶段围岩的温度变化情况,对原岩样品进行了模拟“燃烧”试验,试验结果表明,岩石磁性在不同温度作用条件下存在明显差异,从而从岩石磁性的角度讨论了磁法勘探圈定煤田火烧区的可行性.最后,采用人机交互法对地面实测磁异常剖面进行反演,有效地圈定了煤火区着火点的位置及范围.