Scenario-based assessment and management of water resources in mid-Himalayan micro-watersheds with limited data availability

Abstract

A conceptual hydrological water balance model has been developed and employed to assess the water availability in a mid-Himalayan watershed and analyse the dynamics of water supply and its utilization under different scenarios arising out of present and future developments. The model was calibrated and validated using daily runoff and rainfall data at different locations in the watershed. The water availability in streams and springs to meet the human, animal and crop requirements was assessed, and was found to vary in different quarters of the year with inequalities existing in different parts of the watershed. The model was successfully applied to analyse the impact of land-use changes and weather aberrations on water availability in the present and future scenarios. The drought scenarios are more critical in causing water scarcity in a given location, compared to the impact of land-use changes. The findings can be applied for assessing, planning and allocation of water resources among different sectors of water use in hilly areas and to make informed decisions during critical periods of water scarcity.     

Dynamics in land-surface conditions on the Tibetan Plateau observed by Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR)

Abstract

A time series analysis of 152 VV-polarized Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath Mode (WSM) images collected over the central part of the Tibetan Plateau is presented for the period from April 2005 to September 2007. The signatures of a grassland and a wetland are studied to identify the impact of three land-surface states on the backscatter (σ°). The considered land-surface states are soil moisture, soil temperature and vegetation biomass represented by Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Comparison of the σ° time series with these land-surface states via a multivariate regression shows that the grassland σ° are well represented by the soil moisture dynamics, while the wetland σ° also has a strong correlation with soil temperature. Further, we found that the contribution of the NDVI to the explanation of the temporal σ° variability is limited for both the grassland and wetland.     

Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment

Abstract

The combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year.     

Locating Convection in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: A Gis-Based Analysis of Radar Reflectivities and Comparison to Lightning-Based Observations

Researchers have utilized radar reflectivity returns and lightning flashes separately and together to locate convection with tropical cyclones (TCs). Most studies utilizing both datasets have examined TCs over the ocean, while landfall observations have been limited to a few TCs. This study employs a GIS to delineate regions of high radar reflectivity values within 45 landfalling TCs. The percentage of convective regions contained within each quadrant placed relative to storm motion and deep-layer vertical wind shear is calculated. These percentages are then compared to those from previous studies of quadrant-based lightning flash locations. Results indicate that the GIS-based radar analysis may be identifying TC regions that are electrically active. Both the radar- and lightning-based analyses show that convection shifts from the right to the front of the storm as forward velocity increases. Convection is located left of the shear vector when storm motion is 45-135° counterclockwise from the shear vector, and downshear when shear-minus-motion angles are 315-45°. Additionally, storms that became extratropical within 72 hours of landfall had more convection forward of the circulation center and left of the shear vector, and may produce less lightning than the remaining TCs.     

反射率因子和径向速度共同约束反演多普勒雷达风场

多普勒雷达可以提供降水回波区的风场信息。为了充分运用雷达资料分析中小尺度天气过程,本文假设反射率因子在短时间内的运动满足拉格朗日守恒,提出了采用连续两次的反射率因子回波和径向速度数据共同约束的方法来反演风场,在反演过程中避免了对径向速度的分布进行假设。针对连续两个时次之间反射率回波运动中产生的不同程度的误差做了模拟风场试验,结果表明,当回波运动随机误差不超过40%时,反演结果较为可靠。另外,本文还利用此风场反演方法进行两次中尺度天气过程的实例分析。结果表明,该方法反演的风场与实际风场结构相符,具有一定的应用价值。     

天气雷达站址选择的有效地理视距分析

本文在详细介绍了雷达遮蔽角图和雷达等射束高度图的制作原理和方法的基础上,分析了天气雷达的有效地理视距,开发了天气雷达有效地理视距分析系统。该系统能自动绘制雷达遮蔽角图和等射束高度图,并能对天气雷达候选站址的有效地理视距进行分析,这能为寻求天气雷达最佳候选站址带来方便。     

基于自动气象站的深圳近10年城市气候变化特征研究:2011—2020年

利用广东省深圳市30个自动气象站观测数据对深圳市近10年的气候变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:（1）深圳市2011—2020年的平均气温增长率约1.47 ℃/(10 a),比上一个10年显著增加,气候变暖并未停滞;（2）受城市化的影响,深圳市气温日较差在较大范围内呈减小趋势,但在少数地区却反常地呈现了上升趋势;（3）深圳的地面风速总体呈下降趋势,其中发达地区风速下降更快;（4）2011—2020年深圳市的平均相对湿度呈上升趋势,最高每年增长1.33%;（5）统计深圳各区不同时次的极端降雨量数据可以发现,未发展地区的极端降雨量增速较大,年总降水量的增长率也较高,增长率最高为42.41 mm/a,而其他地区的6 h以内的滑动降水量极大值均呈下降趋势;（6）利用多个自动气象站长时间序列数据,可以对深圳局地气候变化特征进行更加精细化的分析,这对国家基本站而言是一种有益的补充,有助于更加深刻地发掘城市化与气候变化的关系。      

基于区域自动站数据的兰州地区降水精细化特征

基于2012—2019年兰州地区146个区域自动气象站小时降水数据,从不同时间尺度分析兰州地区近8 a降水精细化特征。结论如下:(1)2012—2019年,兰州地区年均降水量总体呈"北少南多、外多内少"的空间分布特征;年降水量具有明显的年际变化,2018年降水异常偏多46%,而2015、2017年降水异常偏少,尤其2015年偏少30%。(2)兰州地区降水主要集中在7—8月,受环流形势影响,7—8月南部降水明显多于北部,其余月份南北降水差异不明显。(3)兰州地区降水量和降水范围分别表现为"朝少夕多"、"夜大日小"的日变化特征;受海拔高度影响,城区降水量总体比山区小,且因热岛效应,城区降水主要集中在午后至傍晚前后,多为对流性降水,而山区降水日分布较为均匀,整体日波动较小。(4)安宁区短时强降水发生频次最高,但短时强降水频发的站点出现在皋兰县六合站和永登县徐家磨村站,永登县是兰州地区短时强降水预报需重点关注的地区。     

基于区域自动站数据的兰州地区降水精细化特征

基于2012—2019年兰州地区146个区域自动气象站小时降水数据,从不同时间尺度分析兰州地区近8 a降水精细化特征。结论如下:(1)2012—2019年,兰州地区年均降水量总体呈"北少南多、外多内少"的空间分布特征;年降水量具有明显的年际变化,2018年降水异常偏多46%,而2015、2017年降水异常偏少,尤其2015年偏少30%。(2)兰州地区降水主要集中在7—8月,受环流形势影响,7—8月南部降水明显多于北部,其余月份南北降水差异不明显。(3)兰州地区降水量和降水范围分别表现为"朝少夕多"、"夜大日小"的日变化特征;受海拔高度影响,城区降水量总体比山区小,且因热岛效应,城区降水主要集中在午后至傍晚前后,多为对流性降水,而山区降水日分布较为均匀,整体日波动较小。(4)安宁区短时强降水发生频次最高,但短时强降水频发的站点出现在皋兰县六合站和永登县徐家磨村站,永登县是兰州地区短时强降水预报需重点关注的地区。     

基于Hilbert-Huang变换的探地雷达信号增强及复信号分析

阐述了Hilbert-Huang变换原理,着重讨论了EMD分解应满足的条件及具体分解过程.以黑麋峰抽水蓄能电站进厂交通隧洞实测GPR剖面为例,应用EMD分解去除部分噪声,再利用Hilbert变换求取GPR剖面复信号,提取瞬时振幅、瞬时相位、瞬时频率3个参数,绘制出相互独立的瞬时参数剖面图,根据不同地质状况进行多参数综合解释.结果表明,该方法避免了使用单一时距剖面分析所造成的解释偏差,能够更好地对异常信息做出反映,提高了GPR数据的解析精度.