不同降雨条件下黄土高原浅层滑坡危险性预测评价

黄土地区浅层滑坡发育非常广泛,由于其具有分布规律性差、前期变形迹象小、分布范围大、面小点多等特征,目前还无法进行有效预测,因此给黄土地区工程安全带来严重威胁。根据无限边坡模型,结合降雨入渗-土体强度衰减规律和GIS（地理信息系统）技术,构建了不同降雨条件下黄土地区浅层滑坡发育危险性评价模型,并将该评价模型应用到延河一级支流幸福川流域,预测在有效降雨量30、50、100、200 mm条件下,该流域浅层滑坡发育程度,并与当前较为流行的SINMAP模型(地形稳定性模型)进行对比。结果表明：①不稳定和潜在不稳定浅层滑坡主要分布在末级河流的两侧和源头,稳定和较稳定区域主要分布在一级河流河道两侧和塬面上;通过对比分析,SINMAP模型计算的结果与本文建立的模型在降雨强度30 mm时的计算结果较为一致。②在本文建立的模型评价结果中,随着有效降雨量的增加,F_s（稳定性系数）<1.00的不稳定区域所占比例逐渐增加,从30 mm的1.12%到200 mm的4.79%;相反,稳定区域则出现逐渐减少的趋势。③根据已发生灾害点的分布,随着有效降雨量的增加,研究区域已发生的灾害点分布在F_s<1.25的比例明显增加,从30 mm的62%到200 mm的88%,在SINMAP评价模型中,研究区域已发生的灾害点的64%分布在不稳定和潜在不稳定区域内,说明本文所建立的评价模型具有一定的精度。通过与SINMAP评价模型对比,本文建立的模型主要采用基于降雨入渗规律,而SINMAP评价模型主要基于降雨汇流过程,因此在利用过程中应根据区域特征选择利用。     

Assessment of gully erosion rates through interviews and measurements: a case study from northern Ethiopia

Gullying has been widespread in the Ethiopian Highlands during the 20th century. It threatens the soil resource, lowers crop yields in intergully areas through enhanced drainage and desiccation, and aggravates flooding and reservoir siltation. Knowing the age and rates of gully development during the last few decades will help explain the reasons for current land degradation. In the absence of historical written or photographic documentation, the AGERTIM method (Assessment of Gully Erosion Rates Through Interviews and Measurements) has been developed. It comprises measurements of contemporary gully volumes, monitoring of gully evolution over several years and semi‐structured interview techniques. Gully erosion rates in the Dogu'a Tembien District, Tigray, Ethiopia, were estimated in three representative case‐study areas. In Dingilet, gullying started around 1965 after gradual environmental changes (removal of vegetation from cropland in the catchment and eucalyptus plantation in the valley bottom); rill‐like incisions grew into a gully, which increased rapidly in the drier period between 1977 and 1990. The estimated evolution of the total gully volume in the other areas show patterns similar to those of the Dingilet gully. Average gully erosion rate over the last 50 years is 6·2 t ha^?1 a^?1. Since 1995, no new gullies have developed in the study area. Area‐specific short‐term gully erosion rates are now on average 1·1 t ha^?1 a^?1. The successful application of the AGERTIM method requires an understanding of the geomorphology of the study area and an integration of the researchers with the rural society. It reveals that rapid gully development in the study area is some 50 years old and is mainly caused by human‐induced environmental degradation. Under the present‐day conditions of ‘normal’ rain and catchment‐wide soil and water conservation, gully erosion rates are decreasing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于分布式大流域径流模型的中国西北黑河流域水文模拟

水资源短缺是中国西北干旱地区长期的问题,区域人口增加、城市化扩张,加之气候变化的影响进一步加剧了西北地区水资源短缺,也使生活用水、灌溉用水、工业用水和维持生态系统稳定的用水危险加剧.采用分布式大流域径流模型(DLBRM)模拟黑河流域水文(中国第二大内陆河,流域面积128 000 km2)来理解区域的冰川和积雪融化水、地下水、地表水、蒸散发等方面的分布,评估气候变化对水文的影响和冰川退缩对中游和下游来水量的影响.模拟结果表明,黑河流域的大部分产流那源于黑河上游地区的祁连山.模拟1990-2000年黑河河流日流量变化结果认为,黑河中游正义峡给下游的供水为10×108m3,其中地表径流占51%,层间流占49%.中游地区沙土具有较高的蒸腾发能力,近一半的地表水被蒸发掉.模拟实践证明,分布式大流域径流模型可以结合气候变化、水资源管理方面的成果,改进流域水文模拟的精度.     

Links between NAO fluctuations and inter-annual variability of winter-months precipitation in the Seine River watershed (north-western France)

The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales.     

微山湖流域高氟地下水的成因分析

依据2006—2016年间采集的区内475件地下水无机分析数据以及钻探岩心易溶盐测试数据,详细研究了微山湖流域高氟地下水的分布特征和富集机制。结果表明:微山湖流域高氟地下水的分布有明显的东西分区特征,湖西冲积、湖积平原区有大范围的高氟地下水,在深度0—40 m的浅层孔隙地下水中,氟含量以1~2 mg/L为主,仅现代黄河影响带地下水氟含量小于1 mg/L,金乡、单县、嘉祥局部超过3 mg/L,最大值9.5 mg/L;在深度150—400 m的深层孔隙地下水中,氟含量以1~1.5 mg/L为主,菏泽—单县条带氟含量超过2 mg/L,最大值3.5 mg/L。微山湖东冲积、洪积平原浅层孔隙地下水、深层岩溶地下水氟含量均小于1 mg/L。湖西冲积、湖积平原沉积物中可溶性氟含量随深度增加而降低。微山湖流域湖西高氟地下水形成受物质来源、淋滤和蒸发浓缩等三方面因素共同控制,CaF_2的溶解平衡是控制地下水F–含量的重要因素。     

Watershed delineation using hydrographic features and a DEM in plain river network region

Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing regional‐scale spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater–surface water interactions using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model

Interaction between groundwater and surface water in watersheds has significant impacts on water management and water rights, nutrient loading from aquifers to streams, and in‐stream flow requirements for aquatic species. Of particular importance are the spatial patterns of these interactions. This study explores the spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater discharge to a river system in a semi‐arid region, with methods applied to the Sprague River Watershed (4100 km²) within the Upper Klamath Basin in Oregon, USA. Patterns of groundwater–surface water interaction are explored throughout the watershed during the 1970–2003 time period using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model tested against streamflow, groundwater level and field‐estimated reach‐specific groundwater discharge rates. Daily time steps and coupling are used, with groundwater discharge rates calculated for each model computational point along the stream. Model results also are averaged by month and by year to determine seasonal and decadal trends in groundwater discharge rates. Results show high spatial variability in groundwater discharge, with several locations showing no groundwater/surface water interaction. Average annual groundwater discharge is 20.5 m³/s, with maximum and minimum rates occurring in September–October and March–April, respectively. Annual average rates increase by approximately 0.02 m³/s per year over the 34‐year period, negligible compared with the average annual rate, although 70% of the stream network experiences an increase in groundwater discharge rate between 1970 and 2003. Results can assist with water management, identifying potential locations of heavy nutrient mass loading from the aquifer to streams and ecological assessment and planning focused on locations of high groundwater discharge. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial scale effect on seasonal streamflows in permafrost catchments on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The scale issue is of central concern in hydrological processes to understand the potential upscaling or downscaling methodologies, and to develop models for scaling the dominant processes at different scales and in different environments. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau was selected. Its hydrological processes were monitored for 4 years from 2004 to 2008, measuring the effects of freezing and thawing depth of active soil layers on runoff processes. To identify the nature and cause of variation in the runoff response in different size catchments, catchments ranging from 1·07 to 112 km² were identified in the watershed. The results indicated that the variation of runoff coefficients showed a ‘V’ shape with increasing catchment size during the spring and autumn seasons, when the active soil was subjected to thawing or freezing processes. A two‐stage method was proposed to create runoff scaling models to indicate the effects of scale on runoff processes. In summer, the scaling transition model followed an exponential function for mean daily discharge, whereas the scaling model for flood flow exhibited a linear function. In autumn, the runoff process transition across multiple scales followed an exponential function with air temperature as the driving factor. These scaling models demonstrate relatively high simulation efficiency and precision, and provide a practical way for upscaling or downscaling runoff processes in a medium‐size permafrost watershed. For permafrost catchments of this scale, the results show that the synergistic effect of scale and vegetation cover is an important driving factor in the runoff response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.