中国中西部发展中城市的增长极作用

为了分析增长极在中部崛起和西部开发中可能发挥的作用,对我国中西部地域相连、经济水平接近的山西、河南、安徽、湖北、湖南、江西、广西、四川、重庆、陕西10个省(直辖市、自治区)的942个市县2000~2007年非农业GDP和就业增长的空间溢出效应进行了检验。模型估计表明,中西部地区各市县非农业经济增长的主要决定因素是自身的投入,同时,中心城市也存在明显的扩散和回流效应。地级市的非农业GDP增长对县级市有扩散效应,意味着城市间经济有一体化趋势,但是地级市的就业增长对县级市有抑制作用;地级城市对相对更不发达的县镇的GDP和就业增长同时具有带动作用;相邻的县级市相互间有较强的促进作用,但是对邻近县镇却有抑制倾向。     

带加强层超高层建筑结构基于能力谱法的抗震设计

带加强层结构在加强层处的刚度发生剧变,从而引起侧向荷载下结构内力分布及变形的相应变化,地震作用下此类结构容易形成薄弱层,因而抗震性能较差。同时,带加强层的建筑物很多属于超限复杂高层建筑结构,无法直接套用规范方法进行抗震设计。根据带加强层高层建筑结构的受力变形特点及国内外研究者的研究成果,结合模态推覆分析理论和能力谱抗震设计方法,本文对带加强层高层建筑结构的受力变形性能作了详细的分析,提出此类结构基于能力谱法的抗震设计方法。此法采用受力层间侧移角作为性能指标,并针对加强层和普通楼层采用了不同的性能水准量化值,根据结构特点以底部和加强层上部两层楼作为薄弱层进行验算,最后通过算例验证所提方法的可行性。     

衡水冀16井水位异常变化调查与分析

衡水冀16井水位2014年10月27日突升之后并维持在高值变化,在高值变化的同时出现多次阶升阶降变化形态。此井井深为1700.41米,突升幅度为0.0588m,以前从未出现过上述情况,该异常变化是否是前兆异常?为了确定异常性质,从供电系统、观测仪器、对比观测、环境干扰等方面进行调查和分析,最终排查出是泄流口排水池堵塞造成水位变化,不是地震前兆异常,对异常变化机理进行初步分析,为判断水位异常变化积累了经验。     

利用重磁资料研究莺-琼盆地构造分界及其两侧断裂特征

莺-琼盆地(即莺歌海盆地和琼东南盆地)位于印支地块与华南大陆交汇处,该区域地质构造复杂,为南海西北走滑型和伸展型陆缘的交汇区,也是印澳-欧亚板块碰撞“挤出-逃逸构造区”和“古南海俯冲-拖曳构造区”.莺-琼盆地的北部以红河断裂带中1号断裂为界,前人对其认识比较统一,但莺-琼盆地南部由于地质和地球物理资料较少、研究程度低,以致其构造格局及分界位置不明确.通过对重、磁资料的处理,认为在莺-琼盆地分界的北段存在明显的重力异常和磁力异常梯级带,该梯级带与1号断裂位置相对应;在其南段存在明显的重力异常和磁力异常高值带,推断该高值带为一“中建凸起”,结合重、磁对应分析技术确定了该“中建凸起”的分布范围.采用重、磁异常归一化总水平导数垂向导数技术识别出控制莺-琼盆地分界两侧的断裂构造,在分界以西断裂走向主要为北北西向,分界以东主要为北东向.通过地质和地球物理综合研究认为莺-琼盆地的北段以1号断裂为界,南段以“中建凸起”为界.     

Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains

Abstract

This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Garcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220.     

The Characteristics and Causes of Land Subsidence in Tanggu Based on the GPS Survey System and Numerical Simulation

Land subsidence is a severe hazard threatening Tanggu, a flat lowland area, and evidences of land subsidence can be seen throughout the city. A new reasonable GPS network was set up in this area from 2008 to 2010. The monitoring data show that land subsidence was serious and two main subsidence cones were obviously formed in the region. One emerged at Hujiayuan, with the maximum rate reaching 60 mm/a, and the influence region enlarged prominently from 2005 to 2010. The other one occurred at Kaifaqu, which became obvious only after 2005, and it showed a decreasing tendency with time. To analyze the causes of ground settlement, a correlation between groundwater withdrawal and land subsidence was firstly made. The results confirmed that over-exploitation of groundwater was the major cause for the severe settlement in Hujiayuan. Meanwhile, the subsidence of Kaifaqu was also related to groundwater withdrawal before 2005. However, the relationship became unconspicuous after 2005. To find the cause of this abnormity, a three-dimensional finite element numerical model, coupled with groundwater flow and subsidence, was built. The simulation results indicate that the subsidence induced by high-rise buildings is serious, but the affected range is limited and it also shows a decreasing trend with time, corresponding to the subsidence characteristics at Kaifaqu. Therefore, more attention should be paid to this hazard induced by engineering construction besides groundwater withdrawal, as more high-rise buildings are under construction in Tanggu.     

杭州湾北岸岸滩变化对海平面上升的响应——以龙泉—南竹港岸段为例

相对海平面上升引发的海岸潜在侵蚀是海岸带资源利用与规划的重点关注内容.基于杭州湾北岸龙泉—南竹港岸段实测断面资料,利用历史岸线后退和淹没法则计算法分析了该地区的海岸变化对海平面上升的响应.结果表明:近10 a来岸滩呈侵蚀后退趋势,年侵蚀速率为3.7～5.7 m/a,相对海平面上升对岸滩迁移后退的贡献为2％～6％;未来1...     

基于分布式光纤传感技术的流速测量方法研究

简要介绍了分布式光纤传感技术的流速测量方法的主要仪器设备。在研究加热光纤与流水之间传热过程的基础上,推导了流速与光纤稳定温升、加热功率等参数之间的基于分布式光纤传感技术的流速测量方法的理论方程。设计了模型试验,对不同流速与加热功率下,光纤温升情况进行了试验研究。在试验数据分析的基础上,研究了静水与流水中光纤温升情况,结果表明：所有温升曲线都可以分为上升和稳定两个阶段,流水中的光纤温升明显低于静水中的光纤温升,两者的差值随着功率及流速的不同而不同。加热功率越大,两者温差越大;流速越大,温差越大。研究了加热功率对静水中光纤温升的影响,通过分析发现：静水中的光纤稳定温升与加热功率之间存在着良好的线性关系。重点分析了在一定功率下,流速与光纤稳定温升之间的关系,结果表明光纤稳定温升与水流速度呈非直线的反比关系。最后,对该方法进行了讨论,提出了下一步研究建议。     

震前云下增温异常及其时段特征

利用卫星热红外图像资料做地震短临预报, 主要依据的是地表大气增温异常在卫星图像上的亮温反映。 但在阴云密布的天气条件下, 这种预报方法却受到了限制, 因为卫星无法探测到地面或水面是否有增温异常。 通过气象资料分析, 得知云层或其他气象条件引起的降温并不能改变震前地表温度增加的趋势。 某些地震之前虽然震中及其附近地区天空阴云密布, 地面增温幅度却可高达十几度。 云下增温曲线可划分为3个时段(即A、 B、 C段), 其中A段与C段分别为增温前与震后的温度变化曲线, 多与日照时间呈正相关关系, 特别是A段的这种关系更具普遍性。 然而, 反映震前地面增温特征的B段却与日照时间没有明显的相关性, 可见这种持续增温、 与云量无关的波状增温等都主要不是由日照或气象条件引起的, 而是一种与地下应力作用、 气体释放、 瞬变电场等有关的震兆现象。 因此, 提高对云下增温的系统观测能力, 是改善热红外地震预报的有效途径。     

Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas

The Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by high density of population and rapidly developing economy. There are low lying coastal plain and deltaic plain in this region. Thus, the study area could be highly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise caused by global warming. This paper deals with the scenarios of the relative sea level rise in the early half period of the 21st century in the study area. The authors suggested that relative sea level would rise 25 50 cm by the year 2050 in the study area, of which the magnitude of relative sea level rise in the Yangtze River Delta would double the perspective worldwide average. The impacts of sea level rise include: (i) exacerbation of coastline recession in several sections and vertical erosion of tidal flat, and increase in length of eroding coastline; (ii) decrease in area of tidal flat and coastal wetland due to erosion and inundation; (iii) increase in frequency and intensity of storm surge, which would threaten the coastal protection works; (iv) reduction of drainage capacity due to backwater effect in the Lixiahe lowland and the eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, and exacerbation of flood and waterlogging disasters; and (v) increase in salt water intrusion into the Yangtze Estuary. Comprehensive evaluation of sea level rise impacts shows that the Yangtze River Delta and eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, especially Shanghai Municipality, belong in the district in the extreme risk category and the next is the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay, the third is the abandoned Yellow River delta, and the district at low risk includes the central part of north Jiangsu coastal plain and Lixiahe lowland.