京津冀城市群虚拟水贸易的近远程分析

虚拟水贸易能重新分配区域间的水资源。在京津冀协同发展的背景下,厘清京津冀城市群与外部的虚拟水贸易及城市群内部的虚拟水流动,有助于深入理解该地区的水资源供需现状及问题,为制定虚拟水贸易相关策略、实现区域水资源优化配置、保障区域水资源安全提供决策支持。本文基于2010年全国区域间投入产出表,测算了京津冀城市群各省（市）水足迹及与全国各省域单元的虚拟水贸易量。从近远程视角定量评估城市群地区对内、外部水资源的依赖程度,并分析虚拟水贸易的距离特征。研究发现：① 京津冀城市群各省（市）各部门用水系数显现出差异性,农业部门用水强度最高,直接用水与完全用水系数分别超过300 m ³/万元和400 m ³/万元;② 京津冀城市群内部各省（市）人均消费水足迹差异大,北京、天津、河北的人均水足迹分别为405 m ³、565 m ³、191 m ³;③ 京津冀城市群的消费水足迹遍布全国各省域单元,近程水足迹与远程水足迹分别为91.4亿m ³、198.5亿m ³,其中,近程水足迹主要来源于本省（市）,西部地区对远程水足迹的贡献最大;④ 京津冀城市群的虚拟水输入总体偏向来源于距离较近的省域单元,北京、天津、河北水足迹距离来源地的平均距离分别为1049 km、1297 km、688 km;⑤ 北京和天津为虚拟水贸易的净流入区,对外部水资源的依赖性强;河北为虚拟水贸易的净流出区,为京津冀城市群及其他地区供给水资源,虚拟水净流出进一步加剧了河北的水资源短缺。未来,受人口增长、经济发展等因素影响,京津冀城市群的水资源压力将进一步加剧,提高用水效率、升级产业结构、提倡低水足迹消费模式、实行虚拟水战略是实现京津冀城市群可持续发展的有效途径。     

社会-生态系统适应性治理研究进展与展望

社会—生态系统（SES）由社会子系统、生态子系统及两者的交互作用构成,具有不同于社会系统或生态系统单独具有的结构、功能和复杂特征。社会—生态系统适应性治理旨在通过适应性的社会权利分配与行为决策机制,使社会—生态系统能够在动态条件下可持续地保障人类福祉。适应性治理理论的形成受到“公共池塘资源管理”“韧性”和“治理”3方面理论的影响,并为“转型治理”与“协作治理”提供了建构基础。该理论具有以下3个主要目的：① 理解和应对社会—生态系统多稳态、非线性、不确定性、整体性以及复杂性;② 建立非对抗性的社会结构、权利分配制度以及行为决策体系,匹配社会子系统与自然子系统;③ 通过综合方法管理生态系统,使其可持续提供生态系统服务。因此,面对人类行为主导地表过程的“人类世”,实现适应性治理有助于应对社会—生态系统的复杂性与不确定性。鉴于中国的生态环境正处于迅速变化时期,且中国与世界各国间的相互影响日益复杂,未来研究可重点关注以下3个方面：① 理解耦合系统的多元互动过程,增强适应能力;② 强调社会—生态系统的整体性研究;③ 提高环境变化背景下理解和预测系统动态的能力。     

The Symbolic Wolf: A Construal Level Theory Analysis of the Perceptions of Wolves in the United States

Charismatic wildlife can be difficult to manage due to the controversies they generate among stakeholders, which may be rooted in their symbolic meaning. Using construal-level theory, we coded the images of gray wolves mentioned by respondents to a national survey (n?=?621) and an issue public survey (n?=?447) as symbolic (abstract) or corporeal (concrete). We analyzed the relationship between these representations of wolves and several perceptions that may perpetuate social conflict. Most people thought of wolves abstractly, and abstract thoughts were associated with positive feelings toward wolves and agreement with existence beliefs regarding wolves. Concrete representations were associated with identifying as a gun or property rights advocate, hunter, or farmer/rancher. Given these disparate views of wolves, engaging stakeholders through collaborative processes designed to foster a shared understanding of this species, while addressing the concerns of those groups, could be useful in reducing conflict concerning wolf management.     

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.     

Understanding the Past and Present and Predicting the Future: Farmers’ Use of Multiple Nutrient Best Management Practices in the Upper Midwest

Understanding what drives farmers’ voluntary adoption of nutrient and soil best management practices has important consequences for many environmental outcomes including water quality. We build on research revealing the need for simultaneous use of multiple nitrogen best management practices to achieve water quality improvement goals. Using social, economic and attitudinal variables we predict the use of multiple nitrogen best management practices at three time points: current use (2013), past use (before 2013), and likelihood of use on their largest field in the next three years. Our empirical analysis uses structural equation modeling with latent variables and 2014 farmer survey data from three Midwestern US states. Most farmers in our sample used at least one of the six best management practices. Our results reveal that farmers’ attitudes, use of information sources, and conservation program participation affect the number of nitrogen best management practices concurrently in use at multiple time points.     

The Natural Resource Management Planning Portal: Perspectives for NRM Planning and Reporting

Natural Resource Management (NRM) is often conducted as a partnership between government and citizens. In Australia, government agencies formulate policy and fund implementation that may be delivered on-ground by community groups (such as Landcare). Since the late 1980s, over AUS$8b of Commonwealth investment has been made in NRM. However, quantitative evidence of environmental improvements is lacking. The NRM Planning Portal has been developed to (1) provide an online spatial information system for sharing Landcare and agency data; and (2) to facilitate NRM priority setting at local and regional planning scales. While the project successfully federates Landcare NRM activity data, challenges included (1) unstructured, non-standardized data, meaning that quantitative reporting against strategic objectives is not currently possible, and (2) a lack of common understanding about the value proposition for adopting the portal approach. Demonstrating the benefit of technology adoption is a key lesson for digital NRM planning.     

Strain analysis of a seismically imaged mass‐transport complex,offshore Uruguay

Strain style, magnitude and distribution within mass‐transport complexes (MTCs) are important for understanding the process evolution of submarine mass flows and for estimating their runout distances. Structural restoration and quantification of strain in gravitationally driven passive margins have been shown to approximately balance between updip extensional and downdip contractional domains; such an exercise has not yet been attempted for MTCs. We here interpret and structurally restore a shallowly buried (c. 1,500 mbsf) and well‐imaged MTC, offshore Uruguay using a high‐resolution (12.5 m vertical and 15 × 12.5 m horizontal resolution) three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection survey. This allows us to characterise and quantify vertical and lateral strain distribution within the deposit. Detailed seismic mapping and attribute analysis shows that the MTC is characterised by a complicated array of kinematic indicators, which vary spatially in style and concentration. Seismic‐attribute extractions reveal several previously undocumented fabrics preserved in the MTC, including internal shearing in the form of sub‐orthogonal shear zones, and fold‐thrust systems within the basal shear zone beneath rafted‐blocks. These features suggest multiple transport directions and phases of flow during emplacement. The MTC is characterised by a broadly tripartite strain distribution, with extensional (e.g. normal faults), translational and contractional (e.g. folds and thrusts) domains, along with a radial frontally emergent zone. We also show how strain is preferentially concentrated around intra‐MTC rafted‐blocks due to their kinematic interactions with the underlying basal shear zone. Overall, and even when volume loss within the frontally emergent zone is included, a strain difference between extension (1.6–1.9 km) and contraction (6.7–7.3 km) is calculated. We attribute this to a combination of distributed, sub‐seismic, ‘cryptic’ strain, likely related to de‐watering, grain‐scale deformation and related changes in bulk sediment volume. This work has implications for assessing MTCs strain distribution and provides a practical approach for evaluating structural interpretations within such deposits.     

基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。     

国土空间规划中水源涵养功能生态保护红线备选区的识别

水源涵养功能重要性是生态保护红线划分工作中重要的评价指标之一。通过对以往生态系统水源涵养功能区划分的指标及其区域导向的系统梳理,在进一步明晰国土空间规划中水源涵养功能生态保护红线区域指向的基础上,按照国土空间规划关于“三区三线”自下而上试划的要求,探讨了水源涵养重要性生态保护红线划分及其评价的改进方法。选取中国典型喀斯特区域六盘水市作为研究案例区,分别用环保部2015版与2017版《生态保护红线划定技术指南》中的模型法、NPP法以及本研究提出的改进方法,对六盘水市水源涵养功能生态保护红线进行了试划。对比三种方法的划定结果可以看出,改进方法因评价数据精度的提高减少了《生态保护红线划定技术指南》方法的区域损失,提高了区域判别的精准性,可望为国土空间规划中生态保护红线的划定提供科学依据。     

干旱半干旱区水资源承载力评价及空间规划指引——以宁夏西海固地区为例

以宁夏西海固地区为例,在区域尺度水资源超载状态分析基础上,构建了栅格尺度水资源承载力评价指标体系和计算方法,阐释了水资源承载力空间格局、特征及其与人口经济要素的空间关系,并提出空间规划与发展路径指引。干旱半干旱区栅格尺度的水资源承载力评估指标体系包括5项一级指标和12项二级指标,案例实证研究与校验表明：指标体系与评估模型具有可操作性,可为空间规划与管制提供更有效的决策支撑;西海固地区栅格尺度的水资源承载力划分为强、较强、中等、较弱以及弱5个等级,强和较强等级区主要位于清水河河谷平原,是黄河扬水灌区与地下水资源富集区的叠加区域,较弱和弱等级区集中分布于黄土丘陵区、六盘山及其余脉山地区。在水资源承载力空间差异分析的基础上,因地制宜地制定空间开发指引,建立“节流为主、开源为辅”的水资源保障体系,有助于构建与区域水资源条件相适应的人口产业布局模式。