Controls of hydrocarbon generation on the development of expulsion fractures in organic-rich shale: Based on the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Jiyang Depression,Bohai Bay Basin,East China

The development of expulsion fractures in organic-rich shale is closely related to hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from kerogen. Organic-rich shales from the upper part of the fourth member and the lower part of the third member of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation in the Jiyang Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, East China, are used as an example. Based on thin sections, SEM and thermal simulation experiments, the characteristics of hydrocarbon generation and the conditions supporting the development of expulsion fractures were explored. The key factors influencing these fractures include the presence of kerogens, their distribution along laminae and around particle boundaries, their exposure to heat and the build-up in pressure due to confinement by low permeability. The development of excess pore fluid pressures and intrinsic low rock fracture strength are the main influencing factors. Pressurization by rapid generation of hydrocarbon provides impetus for fracture initiation and cause bitumen to migrate quickly. The shale laminae results in distinctly lower fracture strength laminae-parallel than laminae-normal and this directs the formation of new fractures in the direction of weakness. When pore fluid pressure increases, maximum and minimum principal effective stresses decrease by different proportions with a larger reduction in the maximum principal effective stress. This increases the deviatoric stress and reduces the mean stress, thus driving the rock towards failure. Moreover, the tabular shape of the kerogen aids the generation of hydrocarbon and the initiation of expulsion fractures from the tip and edge. The resulting fractures extend along the laminae when the tensile strength is lower in the vertical direction than in the horizontal direction. Particle contact boundaries are weak and allow fractures to expand around particles and to curve as the stress/strength regime changes. When pore fluid pressure fields at different fracture tips overlap, fractures will propagate and interconnect, forming a network. This paper could provide us more detailed understanding of the forming processes of expulsion fractures and better comprehension about hydrocarbon expulsion (primary migration) in source rocks.     

气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC 《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。     

变暖背景下北极海冰减少在冬季北半球高纬大陆降雪增加中的作用

过去的几个冬季中,北美、欧洲、西伯利亚和东亚大部分地区经历了冷冬和强降雪,而这与北极海冰的快速减少有关。尽管北极海冰减少在冷冬和强降雪中的作用仍存在争议,但这种新兴的气候反馈在未来变暖背景下是否会持续仍值得关注。中等排放情境下的气候模式模拟结果揭示,欧洲东北部、亚洲中部北部、北美北部的冬季降雪增加会成为贯穿21世纪的一个稳健的特征。21世纪这些区域冬季降雪增加的主要原因是北极秋季海冰的减少（很大的外部强迫）,而冬季北极涛动的变化（北半球主要的自然变化形态）对降雪增加的作用很小。这一结果不仅体现在多模式平均上,而且每个单独模式的结果依然如此。我们认为海冰-降雪之间的强反馈作用可能已经出现,并且在接下来的几十年中这种强反馈作用可能会增强,北半球高纬地区的强降雪事件也会增加。     

近50年来黑河山区汇流区温度及降水变化趋势

利用有关水文气象观测资料、史料和树轮资料,对黑河山区汇流区降水近50年来的变化特征及其与全球气候变暖的对应关系、变化的可能成因及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：黑河山区汇流区降水对全球气候变暖响应比较明显,近50年来黑河山区汇流区降水随全球气温升高呈缓慢增加的趋势。由于西太平洋副热带高压与全球气温变化有着密切的关系,而西太平洋副热带高压的增强和扩大有利于东亚夏季风向北推进至更北,从而使祁连山中西部降水增加。因此,总体来说,全球气候的变暖有利于黑河山区汇流区降水的增加。目前,黑河山区汇流区正处于1980年代开始的历史上有资料记载以来的第5个温暖期和第3个暖湿期,预计在相当一段时期内,黑河山区汇流区降水将随着全球气候的进一步变暖,继续维持这种缓慢增长的状况。     

水文实验研究进展

阐述了水文实验的概念与内涵,归纳了水文实验的研究方法及其特点,系统地回顾了国内外流域水文实验的发展历程,梳理了应用实验方法进行植被截留与阻滞作用、降水径流关系、非饱和带水分运移以及气候变化和人类活动影响下的水文过程研究的进展,分析了当前水文实验发展的不足,提出未来水文实验的发展方向:传统的实验流域着重于地表水研究,没有深入水文循环系统的内部,应将水文实验的研究范围从地表扩展为关键带部分,并加强跨流域的补给、径流与排泄关系研究;多学科交叉的综合观测实验与协同研究是水文实验的发展趋势;当前水文实验的系统性与规范性仍显不足,应重视水文实验站网建设,加强水文实验的规范性,以促进实验数据交换和研究成果对比。     

Uniform and graded bed-load sediment transport in a degrading channel with non-equilibrium conditions

Bed-load transport plays a critical role in river morphological change and has an important impact on river ecology.Although there is good understanding of the role of the variation of river bed grain size on transport dynamics in equilibrium conditions,much less is understood for non-equilibrium conditions when the channel is either aggrading or degrading.In particular,the relative role of different grain sizes in the promotion and hindering of the transport of coarse and fine fractions in a degrading channel has yet to be investigated.The current study attempts to provide new understanding through a series of flume experiments done using uniform and graded sediment particles.The experiments revealed coarser grain-size fractions for a poorly-sorted sediment,relative to uniform-sized sediment,reduced the transport of finer grains and finer fractions enhanced the transport of coarse grains.This hinderingpromotion effect,caused by relative hiding and exposure of finer and coarse fractions,increased with bed slope and decreased with relative submergence.In particular,as relative submergence increased,the graded fractions tended towards behaving more like their unifo rm-sized counterparts.Also,the bed-load parameter of the graded fractions increased more with a rise in bed slope than observed for the uniformsized counterparts.These results revealed,for degrading channel conditions,such as downstream of a dam,bed-load equations developed for uniform bed sediment are inappropriate for use in natural river systems,particularly in mountain streams.Furthermore,changes in river bed composition due to activities that enhance the input of hill-slope sediment,such as fire,logging,and agricultural development,are likely to cause significant changes in river morphology.     

Ground Surface Temperature History in Poland in the 16th–20th Centuries Derived from the Inversion of Geothermal Profiles

Ground Surface Temperature (GST) history in Poland was derived from the inversion of temperature-depth profiles in over 20 wells. Temperature histories for the period 1500 A.D. through 1977 A.D. agree well with the instrumental record of the surface-air temperature available for the last two centuries. A statistical correlation of the reconstructed histories (from the well temperature data) with the instrumental record (air temperature) from the homogeneous Warsaw series is high (>0.8). Functional space inversion (FSI) of the temperature data with depth shows that beginning in the early 19th century, temperatures warmed by 0.9 ± 0.1°C following a long period of colder climate before. The last number could be a minimal as higher warming was calculated using a simple model based on surface temperature for the observational period (homogenized Warsaw surface temperature series, Lorenc, 2000) and POM (pre-observational mean; Harris and Chapman, 1998) of –1.53^oC below the 1951–1980 mean temperature level.     

2022年夏季中国高温干旱气候特征及成因探讨

2022年夏季,中国中东部发生了极端高温干旱气候异常,给经济、农业、人民生活造成了严重影响。本文回顾了此次高温干旱气候异常的时空特征,分析了其主要成因。2022年夏季,中国中东部区域平均的极端高温频次、日最高温度平均值、高温日数等指标均达到了1979年以来的最大值,区域平均降水则达到了1979年以来的最低值。此次气候异常主要是由于夏季中国中东部受强大的高压系统控制,与偏强的西太副高、中纬度的西风带扰动以及热带海温的影响有关。此外,本文探讨了全球增暖趋势对极端高温事件增多的影响,以及未来中国地区高温和干旱事件的可能变化。     

ENCLOSURE EXPERIMENTS ON AND LACUSTRINE PRACTICE FOR ELIMINATING MICROCYSTIS BLOOM

Microcystis bloom, one of the most objectionable characteristics of eutrophication in tropical and subtropical waters, occurred in Donghu Lake (East lake) of Wuhan every summer from the 1970s up to 1984, but from 1985 up to now failed to occur there. The cause of its disappearance rema-ined in obscurity until recently. In situ enclosure experiments in the lake for three years showed that the stocking of the filter-feeding silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) and big-head carp (Aristichthys nobilis ) played a decisive role in eliminating Microcystis bloom from the lake; but that recurrence of the bloom is possible under certain conditions. This paper presents the details and the results of enclosure ex-periments. The authors‘ analysis of fish biomass data obtained by echo-sounding and the fishery produc-tion of the lake over the years, revealed that the recurrence of Microcystis bloom can be prevented so long as the combined biomnss of silver carp and big-head carp remains at or exceeds 50 g per cubic meter of lakewater, as was the case in the lake‘s 1985 fish yield of 1015 t.     

Warmer-Get-Wetter or Wet-Get-Wetter? A Criterion to Classify Oceanic Precipitation

In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of observed global oceanic precipitation during 1979–2010 are investigated. It is found that the global trend in precipitation during this period varies at a rate of 1.5%/K of surface warming while the rate is 6.6%/K during 2006–2010. The precipitation is highly correlated with Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in both the temporal and the spatial patterns since the strong 1997–98 El Nino event. Considering the distributions of precipitation and SST, seven oceanic regions are classified and presented using the observed Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) data and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures, version 3(ERSST.v3) data. Further examining the mechanisms of the classified oceanic precipitation regions is conducted using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite, GFDL-ESM-2G model precipitation and SST data and Hadley Center sea ice and SST version 1(Had ISST1) data. More than 85% of global oceanic precipitations are controlled by either one or both of the warmer-get-wetter mechanism and wet-get-wetter mechanism. It is estimated that a 0.5 SST signal-to-noise ratio, representing the trend of SST time series to the standard deviation, is a criterion to distinguish the mechanism of a region. When the SST ratio is larger than 0.5, the precipitation of this region is controlled by the warmer-get-wetter mechanism. SST, rather than the humidity, is the pivotal factor. On the other hand, when the SST ratio is less than 0.5, the precipitation is controlled by the wet-get-wetter mechanism. The SST variability is a significant factor contributing to the precipitation variation.