南海热带气旋路径集合预报试验

利用3种不同模式的初始资料，通过它们生成得到16个不同的初始场，分别对2004年南海及其周边地区9个热带气旋个例进行集合预报试验，最后筛选得到了7个南海热带气旋初值集合成员，由此初步探讨了南海热带气旋初值集合成员的生成方法。结果表明，采用不同模式的初始资料生成得到初值集合成员的方法用于集合预报，对南海热带气旋路径预报有一些明显的改进。     

西安市气候变暖与城市热岛效应问题研究

选取1961—2003年西安站和周围4站月平均气温资料, 利用西安站与周围4站气温距平滑动平均变化趋势的差异, 发现该站平均气温有两个明显的上升期, 热岛效应使西安站平均升温1.07 ℃, 并建立了西安市城市热岛效应模型。在此基础上分离了气候变暖过程中由于城市热岛效应引起的增温作用。     

全球资料同化中误差协方差三维结构的准确估计与应用Ⅱ:背景误差协方差调整与数值试验分析

利用NMC方法针对背景误差协方差的方差、三维相关与特征长度来揭示T213L31模式的误差主要特点,并与传统更新矢量方法的计算结果进行了对比与调整。结果表明NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果在大体特征上基本吻合,但细节上的差异不可忽视,特别是对背景误差方差与特征长度的估计存在显著的差异,其主要原因是NMC方法倾向于高估天气尺度波的背景误差,而低估次天气尺度到中尺度波的背景误差。通过对背景误差方差、特征长度的调整,显著改善了背景误差功率谱的分布特点,使得NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果更为吻合。通过三维变分同化与最优插值中观测与背景误差相对重要性的比较,发现两者结果基本一致,但三维变分同化在850 hPa以下的温度场和300 hPa以上的风场统计结果都表现出背景误差相对于观测误差偏小的特点。背景误差相对于观测误差偏小有助于保证分析场中质量场与风场平衡,消除了大气底层和高层质量场与风场不匹配现象。在数值试验中,针对不同的背景误差均方差与特征长度的特点,分析了分析增量和预报效果的差异,结果表明,准确的背景误差估计与优化工作改善了预报效果,使得北半球三维变分同化的120 h预报效果整体好于现有最优插值。     

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.     

中国云南哀牢山含海蓝宝石伟晶岩的起源和成岩模拟实验研究

The Ailaoshan aquamarine-bearing pegmatites are associated with Proterozoic metamorphic rocks in the southern portion of the Ailaoshan fault-folded complex.The gem-bearing pegmatite mineralization zones of the region occur in areas generally consistent with the regional tectonic trend.The pegmatites are found in metamorphic rocks,migmatites and in the inner/outer contact zones of gneissoid granites. The Rb-Sr isochron drawn for the pegmatites is 26～31 Ma,(i.e.in Himalayan).The homogenization temperatures of melt and liquid inclusions in minerals vary from 185 to 920℃,which are comparable to the inclusions observed in banded migmatites and ptygmatic quartz veins in the surrounding metamorphic rocks. The mineralization fluids of the pegmatite were rich in HCO_3 and CO_2,and their compositional assemblages are comparable to metamorphic fluids.Results of H,O,C,Si etc.isotopic analyses and REE,and Be analyses indicates that the sources of mineralization components that formed the pegmatites are closely associated with metamorphic fluids and the enclosing metamorphic rocks. A pegmatite structure simulation experiment was conducted at high temperature and pressure(840℃and 1,500×105Pa.),with various metamorphic rock samples in a water-rich and volatile-rich environment.When the liquidus was reached,the temperature was gradually decreased at the rate of 5～10℃/day over a time period of three months.SEM energy-dispersive spectrum analyses were performed on the experimental products.A series of pegmatoid textures were observed including zonal texture,megacryst texture,drusy cavities,crystal druses,and vesicular texture along with more than ten types of minerals including plagioclase,microcline,quartz and biotite.Different metamorphic rock melts generated different mineral assemblages.Experiment results revealed that the partial melting of metamorphic rocks could form melts similar to pegmatite magmas. Based upon the geological characteristics,geochemistry,and pegmatite texture simulation experimental results,it is concluded that the mineralization components of Ailaoshan aquamarine-bearing pegmatites came from metamorphic rocks.The petrogenetic model for the origin of pegmatites is related to ultrametamorphism and metamorphic anatexis.     

塔里木河流域冰川洪水对气候变暖的响应

In past 50 years, the air temperature fluctuation was raising trend in Tarim River Basin. The annual mean temperature has increased by 0.3℃ in the whole Tarim River Basin, and by 0.6℃ in the mountain areas. With global warming, the frequency of unstable and extreme climatic events increased, glaciers retreating accelerated and snow meltwater increased have resulted in the more frequency of snow-ice disasters such as glacier debrisflow and glacier flash flood etc. Since 1980s, in the process of intense climate warming, glaciers melting intensified, ice temperature rose and glaciers flows accelerated, and lead to more glacial lakes and extending water storage capacity and stronger glacial lake outburst floods occurrence. It is proposed that the monitoring and evaluating of the impact of climate change on water resources and floods should be enhanced.     

Uniform and graded bed-load sediment transport in a degrading channel with non-equilibrium conditions

Bed-load transport plays a critical role in river morphological change and has an important impact on river ecology.Although there is good understanding of the role of the variation of river bed grain size on transport dynamics in equilibrium conditions,much less is understood for non-equilibrium conditions when the channel is either aggrading or degrading.In particular,the relative role of different grain sizes in the promotion and hindering of the transport of coarse and fine fractions in a degrading channel has yet to be investigated.The current study attempts to provide new understanding through a series of flume experiments done using uniform and graded sediment particles.The experiments revealed coarser grain-size fractions for a poorly-sorted sediment,relative to uniform-sized sediment,reduced the transport of finer grains and finer fractions enhanced the transport of coarse grains.This hinderingpromotion effect,caused by relative hiding and exposure of finer and coarse fractions,increased with bed slope and decreased with relative submergence.In particular,as relative submergence increased,the graded fractions tended towards behaving more like their unifo rm-sized counterparts.Also,the bed-load parameter of the graded fractions increased more with a rise in bed slope than observed for the uniformsized counterparts.These results revealed,for degrading channel conditions,such as downstream of a dam,bed-load equations developed for uniform bed sediment are inappropriate for use in natural river systems,particularly in mountain streams.Furthermore,changes in river bed composition due to activities that enhance the input of hill-slope sediment,such as fire,logging,and agricultural development,are likely to cause significant changes in river morphology.     

Geophysical phenomena during an ionospheric modification experiment at Tromsø, Norway

We present an analysis of phenomena observed by HF distance-diagnostic tools located in St. Petersburg combined with multi-instrument observation at Tromsø in the HF modified ionosphere during a magnetospheric substorm. The observed phenomena that occurred during the Tromsø heating experiment in the nightside auroral E_s region of the ionosphere depend on the phase of substorm. The heating excited small-scale field-aligned irregularities in the E region responsible for field-aligned scattering of diagnostic HF waves. The equipment used in the experiment was sensitive to electron density irregularities with wavelengths 12–15 m across the geomagnetic field lines. Analysis of the Doppler measurement data shows the appearance of quasiperiodic variations with a Doppler frequency shift, f_d and periods about 100–120 s during the heating cycle coinciding in time with the first substorm activation and initiation of the upward field-aligned currents. A relationship between wave variations in f_d and magnetic pulsations in the Y-component of the geomagnetic field at Tromsø was detected. The analysis of the magnetic field variations from the IMAGE magnetometer stations shows that ULF waves occurred, not only at Tromsø, but in the adjacent area bounded by geographical latitudes from 70.5° to 68° and longitudes from 16° to 27°. It is suggested that the ULF observed can result from superposition of the natural and heater-induced ULF waves. During the substorm expansion a strong stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) at the third harmonic of the downshifted maximum frequency was found. It is believed that SEE is accompanied by excitation of the VLF waves penetrating into magneto-sphere and stimulating the precipitation of the energetic electrons (10–40 keV) of about 1-min duration. This is due to a cyclotron resonant interaction of natural precipitating electrons (1–10 keV) with heater-induced whistler waves in the magnetosphere. It is reasonable to suppose that a new substorm activation, exactly above Tromsø, was closely connected with the heater-induced precipitation of energetic electrons.