'Trees, forests and communities': some historiographical approaches to environmental history on Africa

Focusing on the contested issue of trees and forests, this paper looks at various ways in which historians have explored environmental change and human agency in Africa. It looks in particular at the colonial period and positions the case of the Cape Colony (South Africa) in a broader historiographical context. Colonial silviculture involved both the appropriation of the natural forests and the creation of exotic plantations. These policies generated a mixture of reactions from African communities and had varying effects on the environment. Colonial science and the projects it gave rise to have since been critiqued, contributing to the promotion of community-based forestry schemes that try to incorporate indigenous knowledge and ideas about land use.     

北山戈壁荒漠地区1：5万植物地球化学测量效果

北山戈壁荒漠景观区土壤垂直剖面不存在通常的A、B、C分层结构，且掺杂有大量风成沙。在公婆泉地区开展1：5万常规地球化学测量方法研究的同时，进行了植物地球化学测量试验研究。研究表明，两种方法的主要指示元素异常有很好对应性，红沙是我国西部干旱荒漠广大地区开展植物地球化学测量的一种良好采样对象。     

随机地震动模拟的时间序列法及其工程应用

系统研究了AR和ARMA时间序列方法生成给定加速度功率谱人工地震波的新方法，根据相应理论编制了程序，并生成了人工地震加速时程曲线，然后用生成的人工地震波进行结构动力时程分析，与实际地震波分析的结果进行了对比，计算结果表明，本文用于合成人工地震波的方法是可行的，生成的人工波可以用于实际结构的地震反应分析。     

大型双槽渡槽地震反应分析

为了得到比较精确的大型双槽渡槽结构的地震反应，根据渡槽结构复杂、影响动力因素较多等特点，采用8结点空间块体单元对渡槽槽身和槽墩进行有限元离散，分别用耦合自由度和多个弹簧单元分别模拟渡槽槽身横向拉杆、加劲肋和盆式橡胶支座，建立了大型双槽渡槽结构地层反应分析的有限元模型，计算了南水北调水利工程中的双洎河大型双槽渡槽的振动特性，并分别用反应谱法和时程分析法对该渡槽进行了地震反应分析，计算结果可为该渡槽的抗震设计提供参考。     

Petrography and uplift history of the Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite: could it have hosted a supercritical (HDR) geothermal reservoir?

The Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite (Japan Alps) is analogous to the type of deep-seated (3–5 km deep) intrusive-hosted fracture network system that might support (supercritical) hot dry/wet rock (HDR/HWR) energy extraction. The I-type Takidani Granodiorite comprises: porphyritic granodiorite, porphyritic granite, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, hornblende-biotite granodiorite, biotite-hornblende granite and biotite granite facies; the intrusion has a reverse chemical zonation, characterized by >70 wt% SiO₂ at its inferred margin and <67 wt% SiO₂ at the core. Fluid inclusion evidence indicates that fractured Takidani Granodiorite at one time hosted a liquid-dominated, convective hydrothermal system, with <380°C, low-salinity reservoir fluids at hydrostatic (mesothermal) pressure conditions. ‘Healed’ microfractures also trapped >600°C, hypersaline (35 wt% NaCl_eq) fluids of magmatic origin, with inferred minimum pressures of formation being 600–750 bar, which corresponds to fluid entrapment at 2.4–3.0 km depth. Al-in-hornblende geobarometry indicates that hornblende crystallization occurred at about 1.45 Ma (7.7–9.4 km depth) in the (marginal) eastern Takidani Granodiorite, but later (at 1.25 Ma) and shallower (6.5–7.0 km) near the core of the intrusion. The average rate of uplift across the Takidani Granodiorite from the time of hornblende crystallization has been 5.1–5.9 mm/yr (although uplift was about 7.5 mm/yr prior to 1.2 Ma), which is faster than average uplift rates in the Japan Alps (3 mm/yr during the last 2 million years). A temperature–depth–time window, when the Takidani Granodiorite had potential to host an HDR system, would have been when the internal temperature of the intrusive was cooling from 500°C to 400°C. Taking into account the initial (7.5 mm/yr) rate of uplift and effects of erosion, an optimal temperature–time–depth window is proposed: for 500°C at 1.54–1.57 Ma and 5.2±0.9 km (drilling) depth; and 400°C at 1.36–1.38 Ma and 3.3±0.8 km (drilling) depth, which is within the capabilities of modern drilling technologies, and similar to measured temperature–depth profiles in other active hydrothermal systems (e.g. at Kakkonda, Japan).     

Evaluation of predictors of non‐linear seismic demands using ‘fishbone’ models of SMRF buildings

Predictors (or estimates) of seismic structural demands that are less computationally time‐consuming than non‐linear dynamic analysis can be useful for structural performance assessment and for design. In this paper, we evaluate the bias and precision of predictors that make use of, at most, (i) elastic modal vibration properties of the given structure, (ii) the results of a non‐linear static pushover analysis of the structure, and (iii) elastic and inelastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom time‐history analyses for the specified ground motion record. The main predictor of interest is an extension of first‐mode elastic spectral acceleration that additionally takes into account both the second‐mode contribution to (elastic) structural response and the effects of inelasticity. This predictor is evaluated with respect to non‐linear dynamic analysis results for ‘fishbone’ models of steel moment‐resisting frame (SMRF) buildings. The relatively small number of degrees of freedom for each fishbone model allows us to consider several short‐to‐long period buildings and numerous near‐ and far‐field earthquake ground motions of interest in both Japan and the U.S. Before doing so, though, we verify that estimates of the bias and precision of the predictor obtained using fishbone models are effectively equivalent to those based on typical ‘full‐frame’ models of the same buildings. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The importance of plant root characteristics in controlling concentrated flow erosion rates

While it has been demonstrated in numerous studies that the aboveground characteristics of the vegetation are of particular importance with respect to soil erosion control, this study argues the importance of separating the influence of vegetation on soil erosion rates into two parts: the impact of leaves and stems (aboveground biomass) and the influence of roots (belowground biomass). Although both plant parameters form inseparable constituents of the total plant organism, most studies attribute the impact of vegetation on soil erosion rates mainly to the characteristics of the aboveground biomass. This triggers the question whether the belowground biomass is of no or negligible importance with respect to soil erosion by concentrated flow. This study tried to answer this question by comparing cross‐sectional areas of concentrated flow channels (rills and ephemeral gullies) in the Belgian Loess Belt for different cereal and grass plant densities. The results of these measurements highlighted the fact that both an increase in shoot density as well as an increase in root density resulted in an exponential decrease of concentrated flow erosion rates. Since protection of the soil surface in the early plant growth stages is crucial with respect to the reduction of water erosion rates, increasing the plant root density in the topsoil could be a viable erosion control strategy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

The postglacial history of three Picea species in New England, USA

Given the difficulty of separating the three Picea species—P. glauca, P. mariana, and P. rubens (white, black, and red spruce)—in the pollen record, little is known about their unique histories in eastern North America following deglaciation. Here we report the first use of a classification tree analysis (CART) to distinguish pollen grains of these species. It was successfully applied to fossil pollen from eight sites in Maine and one in Massachusetts. We focused on the late glacial/early Holocene (14,000 to 8000 cal yr B.P.) and the late Holocene (1400 cal yr B.P. to present)—the two key periods since deglaciation when Picea has been abundant in the region. The result shows a shift from a Picea forest of P. glauca and P. mariana in the late glacial to a forest of P. rubens and P. mariana in the late Holocene. The small number of P. rubens grains identified from the late glacial/early Holocene samples (<5%) suggests that that species was either absent or rare at most of the sites. The occurrence and distribution of the three species do not reveal any geographic or temporal trend during late glacial time, but the data suggest that they were distributed in local patches on the landscape. The results of this study indicate that the recent population expansion of Picea (1000 to 500 cal yr B.P.) was likely the first time since deglaciation that P. rubens was abundant in the region.     

The Influence of Vegetation Cover on Summer Precipitation in China： a Statistical Analysis of NDVI and Climate Data

This study provides new evidence for the feedback effects of vegetation cover on summer precipitation in different regions of China by calculating immediate (same season), and one-and two-season lagged correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and summer precipitation. The results show that the correlation coefficients between NDVI in spring and the previous winter and precipitation in summer are positive in most regions of China, and they show significant difference between regions. The stronger one-and two-season lagged correlations occur in the eastern arid/semi-arid region, Central China,and Southwest China out of the eight climatic regions of China, and this implies that vegetation cover change has more sensitive feedback effects on summer precipitation in the three regions. The three regions are defined as sensitive regions. Spatial analyses of correlations between spring NDVI averaged over each sensitive region and summer precipitation of 160 stations suggest that the vegetation cover strongly affects summer precipitation not only over the sensitive region itself but also over other regions, especially the downstream region.