热弹性介质中波的一类反射问题的解

研究了热弹性波的一类反射问题,就热弹性波的两种基本形式求得一类直反射问题及一类斜反射问题的解。结果表明,热弹性波的反射系数、折射系数不仅依赖于介质的性质,还依赖于波的频率;热弹性波的复反射系数及复折射系数使其在界面两侧的相位和附加温度场都出现跃变。     

Experimental investigation of suspended particles transport in porous medium under variable temperatures

This paper presents a study on suspended particle transport in porous medium with the aid of a sand layer transportation–deposition testing system to determine the kinetic characteristics of particles in porous medium under variable temperatures. Quartz sand and quartz powder were chosen as the porous medium and particle in the tests, respectively. Four size compositions and two operational modes, that is, temperature reduction mode (changing from 18°C to 5°C) and temperature increment mode (changing from 18°C to 35°C), were adopted. The turbidity and concentration of quartz powder were measured under various conditions. We observed a high temperature‐independent correlation between them. Breakthrough curves under different conditions were analysed using this testing system. The results showed that changes in temperature affected the particle transport process to some extent, and the degree of influence was closely related to the time moment of the temperature change onset. Moreover, we found a hysteresis phenomenon in the breakthrough curve under both temperature reduction and increment conditions. The results also indicated that the temperature effect was particularly significant for smaller particles. The typical curves to represent particle transport process under variable temperatures were put forward according to the results. To explain the test results, four factors, that is, water viscosity, adsorption effect, double layer force, and particle kinetic energy, were considered and categorized as promotion or constraining factors.     

Elastic analysis of ground movements around a tunnel considering a buoyant lining moving upwards

A complex variable solution is derived for the ground movements around a tunnel considering the lining at different positions in the drilled hole in a linear elastic half-plane. The soil displacements for three different convergence patterns are presented and compared. It is shown that the surface settlement trough will become flatter and wider when the lining moves upwards; the horizontal displacements are more concentrated in the region below the lining; and the region influenced by displacements is wider. Most calculated settlement troughs can be well represented by Gaussian curves with simple parameters, but the obtained width parameters are larger than the traditional empirical values. The rigorous solution can be used as a simple tool to understand the fundamental mechanism of the lining buoyancy problem and as a benchmark for numerical procedures based on more sophisticated models. The importance of buoyancy effect on the displacement field should be taken into account.     

Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data

Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)-China Meteorological Administration (CMA) archiving center and the raingauge data,the three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model was employed to carry out probabilistic hydrological forecast experiments over the upper Huaihe River catchment from 20 July to 3 August 2008.The results show that the performance of the ensemble probabilistic prediction from each ensemble prediction system (EPS) is better than that of the deterministic prediction.Especially,the 72-h prediction has been improved obviously.The ensemble spread goes widely with increasing lead time and more observed discharge is bracketed in the 5th-99th quantile.The accuracy of river discharge prediction driven by the European Centre (EC)-EPS is higher than that driven by the CMA-EPS and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-EPS,and the grand-ensemble prediction is the best for hydrological prediction using the VIC model.With regard to Wangjiaba station,all predictions made with a single EPS are close to the observation between the 25th and 75th quantile.The onset of the flood ascending and the river discharge thresholds are predicted well,and so is the second rising limb.Nevertheless,the flood recession is not well predicted.     

Pulsations and apsidal motion in the eclipsing variable system DI Herculis

In 2003–2008, highly accurate photoelectric and CCD observations of the close binary system DI Her were performed in the V band. The light curves of three primary and three secondary eclipses were constructed. These observations, along with the highly accurate photoelectric observations of other authors obtained in different years from 1963 to 1986, have confirmed the difference between the observed (1 _. ^o 3 ± 0 _. ^o 1/100 yr) and theoretical (4 _. ^o 3/100 yr) rates of apsidal motion. Our photometric data are indicative of a possible variability in the system with period P′ = 1.175 days and amplitude A′ = 0 _. ^m 011, which is probably related to the pulsations of one of the components. There may be a third body in the system that produces in-phase variations in the times of primary and secondary minima with a period of 10.5 yr and an amplitude of 1 _. ^m 5.     

Simpson’s Paradox in Natural Resource Evaluation

Reversals of statistical relationships, when two or more groups of data in a cross tabulation are aggregated, were first revealed more than a century ago. The reversal was later named Simpson’s paradox after his reversal examples in a seminal paper drew the attention of the statistical community. However, almost all the published cases have been in sociology and biomedical statistics. Does Simpson’s reversal occur in geosciences? Various examples from petroleum geology and reservoir modeling will be shown in this paper. Boundary conditions for such a reversal will be discussed under a broader framework of sampling analysis. Ecological inference bias, change of support problem, modifiable areal unit problem, and reference class problem will be discussed in relation to the Simpson’s paradox in the framework of spatial statistics. It will be demonstrated that the traditional interpretation of the paradox as a result of disproportional sampling based on a contingency table is not always true in the framework of spatial statistics, and the reversal while theoretically benign is inferentially treacherous. Therefore, emphasis will be on the discussion of combining statistical and scientific inferences in geologic modeling and hydrocarbon resource evaluation under various sampling schemes or support effect with or without a Simpson’s reversal.     

基于超级集合思想的数值预报产品变权集成方法探讨

针对目前地方气象台站能获取的国内外数值预报产品种类多、数量大、质量参差不齐的实际情况,探讨了几种基于超级集合思想的多模式数值预报动态变权集成处理方法.该方法经济、简便、有效,为预报员从海量的数值产品信息中提取更为准确和精细的集成形势场、物理量场、降水预报、冷空气活动预报、集成矩、特征线路图等多种具有较高质量的集成统计新产品,能动态反映各类数值预报模式的预报能力变化,在一定程度上提高了不同时间、不同区域的精细化预报水平和数值产品的利用效率,为业务预报提供了有价值的参考.     

Effect of variable‐density groundwater flow on nitrate flux to coastal waters

A two‐dimensional variable‐density groundwater flow and transport model was developed to provide a conceptual understanding of past and future conditions of nitrate (NO₃) transport and estimate groundwater nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico. Simulation results show that contaminant discharge to the coast decreases as the extent of saltwater intrusion increases. Other natural and/or artificial surface waters such as navigation channels may serve as major sinks for contaminant loading and act to alter expected transport pathways discharging contaminants to other areas. Concentrations of NO₃ in the saturated zone were estimated to range between 30 and 160 mg?L^?1 as NO₃. Relatively high hydraulic vertical gradients and mixing likely play a significant role in the transport processes, enhancing dilution and contaminant migration to depth. Residence times of NO₃ in the deeper aquifers vary from 100 (locally) to about 300 years through the investigated aquifer system. NO₃ mass fluxes from the shallow aquifers (0 to 5.7 × 10⁴ mg?m^?2?day^?1) were primarily directed towards the navigation channel, which intersects and captures a portion of the shallow groundwater flow/discharge. Direct NO₃ discharge to the sea (i.e. Gulf of Mexico) from the shallow aquifer was very low (0 to 9.0 × 10¹ mg · m^?2?day^?1) compared with discharge from the deeper aquifer system (0 to 8.2 × 10³ mg?m^?2?day^?1). Both model‐calibrated and radiocarbon tracer‐determined contaminant flux estimates reveal similar discharge trends, validating the use of the model for density‐dependent flow conditions. The modelling approach shows promise to evaluate contaminant and nutrient loading for similar coastal regions worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hillslope‐scale probabilistic characterization of soil moisture dynamics and average water balance

Probabilistic water balance modelling provides a useful framework for investigating the interactions between soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere. It has been used to estimate temporal soil moisture dynamics and ecohydrological responses at a point. This study combines a nonlinear rainfall–runoff theory with probabilistic water balance model to represent varied source area runoff as a function of rainfall depth and a runoff coefficient at hillslope scale. Analytical solutions of the soil‐moisture probability density function and average water balance model are then developed. Based on a sensitivity analysis of soil moisture dynamics, we show that when varied source area runoff is incorporated, mean soil moisture is always lower and total runoff higher, compared with the original probabilistic water balance model. The increased runoff from the inclusion of varied source area runoff is mainly because of a reduction in leakage when the index of dryness is less than one and evapotranspiration when the index of dryness is greater than one. Inclusion of varied source area runoff in the model means that the actual evapotranspiration is limited by less available water (i.e. water limit), which is stricter than Budyko’s and Milly’s water limit. Application of the model to a catchment located in Western Australia showed that the method can predict annual value of actual evapotranspiration and streamflow accurately. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the spatial and temporal variation of the rainwater harvesting potential (1971–2010) on the Chinese Loess Plateau using the VIC model

Rainwater harvesting could increase the resilience of ecosystems on the Loess Plateau and thus ensure the sustainability of livelihoods that depend on them. As such, it is a key component of strategies for adapting to global climate change. In this study, we used a new method to quantify the rainwater harvesting potential (RWHP) across the whole Loess Plateau and to characterize its spatial and temporal variation over the last four decades on the basis of the variable infiltration capacity model. It was found that that the mean RWHP of the study region was 731.10 × 10⁸ m³, and the average water layer thickness was 114.34 mm. There is considerable scope for rainwater harvesting across the Loess Plateau as a whole, to the extent that it could potentially provide enough water to implement the ‘Grain for Green’ Project. The annual average RWHP decreased slightly from 1971 to 2010, and Hurst exponent analysis indicated that this trend will exhibit long‐term persistence. The annual RWHP was highest in the southeast of the Loess Plateau and lowest in the northwest. Areas with high RWHP values tended to be clustered around the middle reach of the Yellow River. For most areas, there was no significant change between 1971 and 2010. Those areas for which there was a significant decrease in RWHP were primarily located around the upper–middle reaches of the Weihe River, the upper reach of Jinghe River, the eastern Guanzhong Plain, the Qinhe River watershed and the area around Dongsheng. Quantitative assessments of RWHP are likely to be useful for guiding the development and use of innovative rainwater harvesting technologies around the world and could help to relieve the problems caused by water shortages on the Loess Plateau while simultaneously eliminate the major cause of soil erosion. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.