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71.
72.
Gökhan Saygili 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(2):197-207
The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material. 相似文献
73.
J. Michael Duncan 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):70-74
ABSTRACTA core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability. 相似文献
74.
Te Xiao Zi-Jun Cao Xiao-Song Tang 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):146-159
ABSTRACTA simplified reliability analysis method is proposed for efficient full probabilistic design of soil slopes in spatially variable soils. The soil slope is viewed as a series system comprised of numerous potential slip surfaces and the spatial variability of soil properties is modelled by the spatial averaging technique along potential slip surfaces. The proposed approach not only provides sufficiently accurate reliability estimates of slope stability, but also significantly improves the computational efficiency of soil slope design in comparison with simulation-based full probabilistic design. It is found that the spatial variability has considerable effects on the optimal slope design. 相似文献
75.
76.
To better understand the mechanisms relating to hydrological regulations of chemical weathering processes and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) behaviours, high-frequency sampling campaigns and associated analyses were conducted in the Yu River, South China. Hydrological variability modifies the biogeochemical processes of dissolved solutes, so major ions display different behaviours in response to discharge change. Most ions become diluted with increasing discharge because of the shortened reactive time between rock and water under high-flow conditions. Carbonate weathering is the main source of major ions, which shows strong chemostatic behaviour in response to changes in discharge. Ions from silicate weathering exhibit a significant dilution effect relative to the carbonate-sourced ions. Under high temperatures, the increased soil CO2 influx from the mineralisation of organic material shifts the negative carbon isotope ratios of DIC (δ13CDIC) during the high-flow season. The δ13CDIC values show a higher sensitivity than DIC contents in response to various hydrological conditions. Results from a modified isotope-mixing model (IsoSource) demonstrate that biological carbon is a dominant source of DIC and plays an important role in temporal carbon dynamics. Furthermore, this study provides insights into chemical weathering processes and carbon dynamics, highlighting the significant influence of hydrological variability to aid understanding of the global carbon cycle. 相似文献
77.
Yetang Hong Dongsheng Liu Hongbo Jiang Liping Zhou J. Beer Bing Hong Yongxuan Zhu Handing Li Xuetian Leng Xiaoguang Qin Wang Yu Qinghua Lin Yiqiang Zeng 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2000,43(2):217-224
There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar
activity. A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record
to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming
and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years,
are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further
evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries. 相似文献
78.
A. Barrie Pittock 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1980,118(1):643-660
Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments. 相似文献
79.
Jenna Duffin Richard A. Carmichael Elowyn M. Yager Rohan Benjankar Daniele Tonina 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(5):1026-1040
Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1-m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid-wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley-scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle-pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small-scale wavelet power, which is related to pool-riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel-unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys. 相似文献
80.
Evaluating proxies for estimating subaerial beach volume change across increasing time scales and various morphologies 下载免费PDF全文
Proxies, such as changes in beach profiles and shoreline positions, are commonly used in management and research for estimating changes in subaerial beach volume; however, the accuracy of these proxies across increasing time scales and complex morphologies is unclear. Volume changes associated with along‐beach morphologic variability may not be captured well by changes in profiles, while volume changes associated with across‐beach morphologic variability may not be captured well by measuring shoreline change. This study assesses the impacts of morphologic variations, associated with beach cusps and nourishment material, on volume change estimates from profiles and shoreline change at 0.5 to 3.5 year time periods. Results indicate that profiles spaced ≥ 150 m apart and the shoreline‐change proxy will likely estimate volume change inaccurately over periods ≤ 1 year at beaches that are consistently eroding or accreting and contain cusps. However, over longer time periods (1–3.5 years), estimates of volume change from both proxies improved at those types of beaches. Volume changes at the edges of nourishment areas are not captured well by profiles. When the nourishment material is graded to a ramped morphology, which minimizes across‐beach morphologic variability, the shoreline‐change proxy does accurately estimate volume changes. Both proxies estimate volume changes inaccurately at beaches where volume changes oscillate between erosion and accretion on both short and long time scales because the magnitude of small‐scale changes in volume from the formation and erosion of morphologic features, such as cusps and berms, will always be similar to the longer‐term net volume change. This study suggests that decadal records of shoreline change, which are commonly developed using aerial photography, can be used to help identify the best proxy for estimating volume change; however, recent anthropogenic modifications that impact patterns of beach sedimentation, including nourishment, terminal groins, and inlet‐channel dredging, makes decadal records less useful. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献