Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2简

The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.     

基于空间变异修正普通克里金的矿区复杂地形高精度建模

普通克里金法是构建矿区三维地形模型并揭示地表沉陷形变场动态变化规律的有效方法。但普通克里金法存在平滑效应的问题,导致估计值的空间变异程度小于实际,无法真实反映矿区复杂地表形态的空间变化特征。本文结合矿区实际地形采样数据,提出了一种空间变异修正的普通克里金法,并将其应用于矿区复杂地形的高精度建模,并与已有方法在建模精度和空间变异性复现方面进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,空间变异修正的普通克里金法能够很好地处理平滑效应对建模的影响,具有更高的建模精度和空间变异性复现能力,在矿区复杂地形高精度建模应用中具有较强的适用性,可以作为一种可靠的建模工具用于矿区复杂地形沉陷形变场动态变化规律分析。     

The critical scale of fluctuation for active lateral forces in spatially variable undrained clays

This study addresses the phenomenon of the critical scale of fluctuation (SOF) for active lateral force (P_a) in undrained clay when there is a spatial variability in the clay. The phenomenon is significant under shear strength (τ_f) random fields but is insignificant under unit weight (γ) random fields. It is found that the phenomenon of the critical SOF is connected to the nature of the spatial averaging, which is “line averaging” under τ_f random fields and is “area averaging” under γ random fields. The former averaging effect (line) is significantly weaker than the latter (area), so the tendency for the critical slip plane to seek for a favorable location is stronger for the τ_f random field than for the γ random field. Hence, the phenomenon of the critical SOF is more pronounced under τ_f random fields than under γ random fields. The underlying mechanisms for the phenomenon of the critical SOF will be explored in this paper.     

Reliability analysis of piles in spatially varying soils considering multiple failure modes

In most limit state design codes, the serviceability limit checks for drilled shafts still use deterministic approaches. Moreover, different limit states are usually considered separately. This paper develops a probabilistic framework to assess the serviceability performance with the consideration of soil spatial variability in reliability analysis. Specifically, the performance of a drilled shaft is defined in terms of the vertical settlement, lateral deflection, and angular distortion at the top of the shaft, corresponding to three limit states in the reliability analysis. Failure is defined as the event that the displacements exceed the corresponding tolerable displacements. The spatial variability of soil properties is considered using random field modeling. To illustrate the proposed framework, this study assesses the reliability of each limit state and the system reliability of a numerical example of a drilled shaft. The results show the system reliability should be considered for the serviceability performance. The importance measures of the random variables indicate that the external loads, the performance criteria, the model errors of load transfer curves and soil strength parameter are the most important factors in reliability analysis. Moreover, it is shown that the correlation length and coefficient of variation of soil strength can exert significant impacts on the calculated failure probability.     

全球过去千年典型暖期温度空间格局重建

利用过去两千年全球变化研究网络(PAGES 2k network)最新公布的501条代用记录,重建了全球过去千年全年平均温度空间格局的演化特征,对比分析了中世纪暖期及其最暖100年与20世纪现代暖期、中世纪暖期和小冰期最暖30年与20世纪最近30年的年平均温度空间模态异同.结果显示,在世纪尺度上,现代暖期与历史上中世纪暖期的温度异常空间格局大致相同,变化幅度也在大部分区域相当,但从年代际尺度上,最近30年的升温比过去千年中世纪暖期和小冰期两个典型时期都明显.值得一提的是北大西洋中高纬度海温变化与上述特征并不相同,在年代际和世纪尺度上小冰期和中世纪暖期海温均高于20世纪.可能原因是大西洋经圈翻转环流在中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪现代暖期等3个特征时段对太阳辐射、火山活动和温室气体等外强迫的响应不同.     

How is the precipitation distributed vertically in arid mountain region of Northwest China?

Precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China (NWC) shows high spatial and temporal variability,in large part because of the region's complex topography and moisture conditions.However,rain gauges in the area are sparse,and most are located at altitudes below 2000 m,which limits our understanding of precipitation at higher altitudes.Interpolated precipitation products and satellite-based datasets with high spatiotemporal resolution can potentially be a substitute for rain gauge data.In this study,the spatial and temporal proper-ties of precipitation in the arid region of NWC were analyzed using two gridded precipitation products:SURF_CLI_CHN_PRE_DAY_GRID_0.5 (CHN) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43.The CHN and TRMM 3B43 data showed that in summer,precipitation was more concentrated in southern Xinjiang than in northern Xinjiang,and the opposite was true in winter.The largest difference in precipitation between mountainous areas and plains appeared in summer.High-elevation areas with high precipitation showed more stable annual precipitation.Different sub-regions showed distinctive precipitation distributions with elevation,and both datasets showed that the maximum precipitation zone appeared at high altitude.     

1980—2020年中国九大流域蒸散发及其组分时空评估

蒸散发是地表陆气水分交换的纽带,准确量化蒸散发的时空演变格局对于水资源规划与管理至关重要。本文基于GLEAM模型的蒸散发及其组分数据集,借助7个通量观测站数据、120个流域的流域水量平衡及PML_V2蒸散发产品,在中国九大流域系统评估了GLEAM-ET产品,分析了植被恢复背景下,蒸散发（ET）及其组分（植被蒸腾Ec,截留蒸发Ei,土壤蒸发Es）在1980—2020年的时空演变格局。本文主要得到以下结论：① GLEAM-ET产品在中国九大流域具有较好的适用性,其性能与气候类型有关,干旱区效果优于湿润区。此外,GLEAM与PML_V2模型在九大流域相关性较好（R>0.7）,分布格局与变化趋势整体保持一致。② 全国尺度上,ET均值为416.88 mm,增长速率为1.21 mm/a。Ec与ET均呈自东南向西北递减的分布格局,而Es与其相反。Ec、ET在九大流域均呈显著增加趋势（p<0.001）。Ei、Es在季风区流域分别呈显著增加和显著减小趋势;在内陆区流域呈不显著减小（p>0.05）和显著增加趋势。③在植被恢复背景下,ET组分比例发生了变化。Ec占比变化存在南北差异,南方流域Ec占比均减小,北方流域均增加。Ei占比在各流域均增加,Es占比均减小。黄河流域ET组分对植被恢复的响应最为明显,Ec占比增加了5.21%,Es占比减小了5.56%。     

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, these effects are quantified using three methods, namely, multi‐regression, hydrologic sensitivity analysis, and hydrologic model simulation. A conceptual framework is defined to separate the effects. As an example, the change in annual runoff from the semiarid Laohahe basin (18 112 km²) in northern China was investigated. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt test, and precipitation‐runoff double cumulative curve method were adopted to identify the trends and change‐points in the annual runoff from 1964 to 2008 by first dividing the long‐term runoff series into a natural period (1964–1979) and a human‐induced period (1980–2008). Then the three quantifying methods were calibrated and calculated, and they provided consistent estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the human‐induced period. In 1980–2008, human activities were the main factors that reduced runoff with contributions of 89–93%, while the reduction percentages due to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration only ranged from 7 to 11%. For the various effects at different durations, human activities were the main reasons runoff decreased during the two drier periods of 1980–1989 and 2000–2008. Increased runoff during the wetter period of 1990–1999 is mainly attributed to climate variability. This study quantitatively separates the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can serve as a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for climatic variability and its impact on human development during the Neolithic from Loughmeenaghan,County Sligo,Ireland

High‐resolution pollen and geochemical analyses conducted on a sediment profile from a small lake in County Sligo, Ireland, revealed that human development during the Neolithic was influenced by pronounced climatic oscillations. The primeval woodland around the lake experienced a considerable transformation coinciding with the elm decline at 3810 BC. The subsequent increase in summer temperatures and decrease in precipitation favoured wheat cultivation in the lake's catchment area, which was practised for approximately 140 years. A shift towards pastoral farming took place with the establishment of exceptionally dry conditions between 3650 and 3560 BC, when lake level and influx of allochthonous material were notably low. The onset of cool and wet conditions at the transition from the Early to Middle Neolithic possibly caused the initial decline of human activity in the area. Periods of particularly high precipitation during the Middle and early Late Neolithic contributed to the abandonment of the area by the first farmers. Comparison of the proxy record from the study site with other palynological and archaeological records from Ireland suggests that climatic variability on the decadal to centennial scale represented a primary control on the nature and duration of farming practices during the Neolithic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields

Abstract

To advance understanding of hydroclimatological processes, this paper links spatiotemporal variability in gridded European precipitation and large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) time series (1957–2002) using monthly concurrent correlation. Strong negative (positive) correlation near Iceland and (the Azores) is apparent for precipitation in northwest Europe, confirming a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) association. An opposing pattern is found for southwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in winter. In the lee of mountains, MSLP correlation is lower reflecting reduced influence of westerlies on precipitation generation. Importantly, European precipitation is shown to be controlled by physically interpretable climate patterns that change in extent and position from month to month. In spring, MSLP–precipitation correlation patterns move and shrink, reaching a minimum in summer, before expanding in the autumn, and forming an NAO-like dipole in winter. These space–time shifts in correlation regions explain why fixed-point NAO indices have limited ability to resolve precipitation for some European locations and seasons.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Lavers, D., Prudhomme, C., and Hannah, D.M., 2013. European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 310–327.