宏观水力传导度及弥散度的确定方法

根据非饱和水力传导率野外试验的统计数据,利用由随机理论推求的宏观水力传导率、宏观水分特征曲线、宏观弥散度的计算公式,计算了介质的宏观参数,为区域非饱和水分运动和溶质运移问题的分析和预测奠定了基础.     

中国近海TOPEX/Poseidon卫星测高海平面变化的CPCA分析

用复主成分分析方法，对中国近海TOPEX／Poseidon卫星6年的测高的海平面变化资料进行了分析，给出了中国南海，黄海和东海的海平面变化的空间和时间分布特重征，利用小波方法分析了主要主成分时间变化序列的时－频特征，分析结果表明，主要主成分的空间分布特征与海洋环充相对应，南海，黄海和东海的海平面变化存在显著的年际和2个月的非稳态振荡信号，南海具有较明显的半年周期信号，而黄海和东海的半年周期信号不明显。     

Synoptic circulation and stream discharge in the Great Lakes basin, USA

Impacts on water resources caused by human activity, natural climate variation and long-term climate change are unclear in the US Great Lakes region. Improved understanding of the impact of atmospheric circulation on stream discharge variability into the Lakes is thus important. In this analysis, monthly surface and mid-tropospheric circulation patterns suggest that surface pressure variations over Missouri and Illinois are most strongly correlated to discharge. The mid-tropospheric patterns most directly related to discharge place the Great Lakes in a trough-to-ridge flow pattern. The analysis confirms that at this scale, lee shore advection resulting in ‘lake-effect’ precipitation is not very important to regional discharge, and neither are variations in the Pacific–North American teleconnection.     

An abrupt cooling event early in the last interglacial in the northern South China Sea

The high-resolution quantitative analysis of the planktonic foraminifera and the δ¹⁸O records of the section between 96.49– 137.6 mcd at ODP Site 1144 on the continental slope of northern South China Sea reveals an abrupt cooling event of sea surface temperature (SST) during the last interglacial (MIS 5.5, i.e. 5e). The dropping range of the winter SST may come to 7.5°C corresponding to 1.2‰ of the δ¹⁸O value of sea surface water. This event is comparable with those discovered in the west Europe and the northern Atlantic Ocean, but expressed in a more intensive way. It is inferred that this event may have been induced by middle- to low-latitude processes rather than by polar ice sheet change. Since the Kuroshio-index speciesPulleniatina obliquiloculata displayed the most distinct change at the event, it may also be related to the paleoceanographic change of the low-latitude area in the western Pacific Ocean. This event can be considered as one of “Younger Dryas-style coolings” and is indicative of climate variability of the last interglacial stage.     

A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.     

S_q发电机电流的逐日变化和S_q指数

用中国地磁台站的资料,研究了S_q逐日变化的形态学特征,用理论模型计算了磁层环电流、部分环电流、场向电流、磁尾电流、Chapman-Ferraro电流的地磁效应.在消除了这些磁层电流体系的影响之后,得到了电离层潮汐风发电机电流产生的磁场S_q变化.对1973年的资料研究表明,S_q发电机电流的逐日变化主要表现在强度上,即使在磁扰期间,也可以分离出形态稳定的S_q变化.由此提出了一种新的地磁指数——S_q指数,用来描述S_q发电机电流强度的逐日变化.     

土壤空间变异研究中的定量分析

 系统地介绍了用地质统计学方法定童地研究土攘空间变异性的基本原理和方法以及这一领域目前研究的几个重点问题，并简单介绍了我国在这方面的研究现状。     

The Disparity Between the Level of Economic Development and Human Welfare

The lack of correspondence between traditional economic development measures, such as GNP per capita, and human welfare measures, such as the PQLI, has been well documented in the literature. We devised and analyzed an economic development-welfare disparity measure, and found considerable geographic variability, with actual levels of human welfare much less than expected in many Middle Eastern and African countries, given the level of economic development. Exploratory correlation and regression analysis revealed that inequalities in the distribution of economic power and governmental expenditures contributed to the geographic variability. More importantly, each region improved its standing on the development-welfare disparity measure when relevant factors were controlled via multivariate regression.     

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that by the corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 year integrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAP AGCM, i.e., no serious ‘climate drift’ occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM and CGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM is much greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not exist in the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two types: one is the variation of the annual mean, another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type of variability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannual variability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.     

Influence of southern oscillation index on the variability and predictability of Indian monsoon. A reappraisal

The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.