Effects of current climate,paleo-climate,and habitat heterogeneity in determining biogeographical patterns of evergreen broad-leaved woody plants in China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Understanding biogeographic patterns and the mechanisms underlying them has been a main issue in macroecology and biogeography, and has implications for...     

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.     

渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析

随着海洋生态系统模型的发展,生态变量增多,众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题,生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异,本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型,并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明:南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率,其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率,其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出,渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强,是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异,受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响,与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。     

基于均一化观测序列的成山头海表温度气候变化特征分析

文中利用加拿大环境部气候研究中心研发的惩罚最大t检验方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,结合元数据信息,对1960-2017年成山头海洋站海表温度序列进行了均一性检验与订正。利用订正后的海表温度序列对成山头海温气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明,订正前后年平均海表温度趋势发生了明显改变,表现出海温上升趋势较订正前加强的特征,增暖趋势由订正前的0.04℃/10 a上升到0.15℃/10 a,其中最暖的5个年份多发生在1980年以后,分别为1973年、1989年、2002年、2007年和2017年。海表温度总体呈显著上升趋势和明显的年代际波动,20世纪60年代至80年代末为偏冷阶段,之后开始增暖,20世纪90年代至今为偏暖阶段。1960-2017年,成山头的海温突变点在1987年,是一次增暖性突变,与中国大陆的气温突变特征和气温变化阶段性特征非常一致。     

赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾障碍层厚度的季节内和准半年变化

利用2002—2015年ARGO网格化的温度、盐度数据, 结合卫星资料揭示了赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾障碍层厚度的季节内和准半年变化特征, 探讨了其变化机制。结果表明, 障碍层厚度变化的两个高值区域出现在赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾北部。在赤道区域, 障碍层同时受到等温层和混合层变化的影响, 5—7月和11—1月受西风驱动, Wyrtki急流携带阿拉伯海的高盐水与表层的淡水形成盐度层结, 同时西风驱动的下沉Kelvin波加深了等温层, 混合层与等温层分离, 障碍层形成。在湾内, 充沛的降雨和径流带来的大量淡水产生很强的盐度层结, 混合层全年都非常浅, 障碍层季节内变化和准半年变化主要受等温层深度变化的影响。上述两个区域障碍层变化存在关联, 季节内和准半年周期的赤道纬向风驱动的波动过程是它们存在联系的根本原因。赤道东印度洋地区的西风(东风)强迫出向东传的下沉(上升)的Kelvin波, 在苏门答腊岛西岸转变为沿岸Kelvin波向北传到孟加拉湾的东边界和北边界, 并且在缅甸的伊洛瓦底江三角洲顶部(95°E, 16°N)激发出向西的Rossby波, 造成湾内等温层深度的正(负)异常, 波动传播的速度决定了湾内的变化过程滞后于赤道区域1~2个月。     

Snow cover area change and its relations with climatic variability in Kashmir Himalayas,India

Snowmelt makes an essential component of the hydrological system of Kashmir Himalayas. The present study was carried out to examine the status of Snow Cover Area (SCA) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day Snow Cover Product between 2000 and 2016. The intra- and inter-annual variability in SCA and in meteorological parameters was observed and various statistical tests were used to study the interrelationship. Results of statistical analysis indicate decrease in maximum temperature (?0.05 °C/year) and minimum temperatures (?0.02 °C/year) while rise in precipitation (19.13 mm/year). It also showed an increase in annual mean SCA (43.5 sq km) during the study period. The analysis was also carried out on a seasonal basis. The results revealed that in Kashmir Himalayas, climate plays a dominating role in controlling the SCA. The results depict the short-term fluctuations in SCA and show the magnitude of change between two successive values being very large in SCA.     

Seasonal variability of tropical cyclones generated over the South China Sea

The seasonal variability of tropical cyclones (CTCs) generated over the South China Sea (SCS) from 1948 to 2003 is analyzed. It peaks in occurrence in August and few generate in late winter (from January to March). The seasonal activity is attributed to the variability of atmosphere and ocean environments associated with the monsoon system. It is found that the monsoonal characteristics of the SCS basically determine the region of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in each month.     

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.     

Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Natural variability associated with the CARLIT method on the rocky shores of the Ligurian Sea (Italy)

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC, adopted by the European Community in 2000 with the goal of maintaining and improving the aquatic environments, requires that member states achieve and maintain a good ecological status of all water bodies by 2015. In the marine context, the ecological status has to be quantified applying indexes based on appropriate key biological elements, which allow the categorization of water bodies into five Ecological Status (ES) classes. The CARLIT index is a cartographic monitoring tool enabling the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) to be calculated using macroalgae in coastal hard bottoms as a key biological element; at present it is being applied in Spain, France and Italy. To detect actual changes of water quality and, consequently, rely on the application of indexes for the assessment of the ecological status in the marine environment, it is necessary to evaluate their sensitivity to natural variability at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study we present a first quantification of natural (spatial and temporal) variability of EQR‐CARLIT quality assessment in 2006 and 2007 along the Ligurian coast (North‐Western Mediterranean, Italy). The EQR‐CARLIT values recorded along the Ligurian coastline show that natural variability of EQR‐CARLIT is low and that it does not affect the attribution of a given stretch of coast to a particular ES class, in agreement with the major human pressures acting in the area (urbanization, river load, sea‐farming). A small‐scale variability was detected, strengthening the use of cartography of the whole rocky shore, whenever possible, or, alternatively, the assessment of the ecological status for long stretches of coast, to encompass the small‐scale variability due to local factors.     

Surface current field and seasonal variability in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions derived from satellite-tracked drifter data

The muhiyear averaged surface current field and seasonal variability in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions are studied. The data used are trajectories and （1/4） ° latitude by （1/4） ° longitude mean currents derived from 323 Argos drifters deployed by Chinese institutions and world ocean circulation experiment from 1979 to 2003. The results show that the Kuroshio surface path adapts well to the western boundary topography and exhibits six great turnings. The branching occurs frequently near anticyclonic turnings rather than near cyclonic ones. In the Luzon Strait, the surface water intrusion into the South China Sea occurs only in fall and winter. The Kuroshio surface path east of Taiwan, China appears nearly as straight lines in summer, fall, and winter, when anticyclonic eddies coexist on its right side; while the path may cyclonically turning in spring when no eddy exists. The Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan often occurs in fall and winter, but not in summer. The running direction, width and velocity of the middle segment of the Kuroshio surface currents in the East China Sea vary seasonally. The northward intrusion of the Kuroshio surface water southwest of Kyushu occurs in spring and fall, but not in summer. The northmost position of the Kuroshio surface path southwest of Kyushu occurs in fall, but never goes beyond 31 °N. The northward surface current east of the Ryukyu Islands exists only along Okinawa-Amami Islands from spring to fall. In particular, it appears as an arm of an anti- cyclonic eddy in fall.