价值与异质性:选择实验下的滨海游憩环境评价

海岸公园环境管理作为重要的生态经济发展问题,在制定有效政策时,相关信息至关重要,尤其是与娱乐或游憩相关的环境属性经济价值评价。本文以大连沿海公园为研究区域,选取海滩类型、垃圾情况、水质清澈度、拥挤程度四个环境要素,采用三种离散选择模型对游客的环境改善支付意愿(Willingness to pay,WTP)进行了估算。研究发现水质改善和减少垃圾的经济价值最高,分别为40.69元和70.55元,另外,游客对于拥挤程度的改善意愿不明显(–0.12元)。此外,本研究针对公园属性组合对受访者偏好及异质性进行了分析,结果表明,在给定的属性因素中,不同游客个体特征下的WTP存在显著的异质性,女性游客较男性对水质改善有着更高的WTP,游客收入水平与支付意愿也有明显的正相关性,从事游泳和划船活动的游客对水质的WTP较高(59.83元)。这些发现为沿海公园管理者制定有价值的政策提供了有用的信息。     

地质公园保护利用协调的理论模式--以陕西省为例

国家地质公园的建立使得地质遗迹资源的利用得到了重视,但是如何协调好保护与利用之间的关系,则是当前亟需解决的问题。以陕西省的国家地质公园为例,分析了由决策型协调、管理型协调、技术型协调三个层次构成的地质公园保护利用协调的理论模式,并就这三种协调的含义、相互关系和协调方略等进行了论证和分析,最后利用这一思路和模式具体对三个国家地质公园亟需解决的主要问题侧重进行了分析,并提出相关对策、建议。     

A model for the conservation of geological remains as documents

 Geological remains are conserved mainly either together with living beings for the sake of the integrity of nature or for their economical or aesthetic value. However, they also have scientific value for the geologist to reconstruct the earth's past. For this reason we propose a model which is an application of marginal utility theory in economics and takes into account the informational utility of geological remains. Informational utility of geological remains ranges over their geological significance which is induced by the importance of the geological processes that produce them, and over their spatial extensiveness. Our model takes into account also the cost and budget of conservation and proposes to solve the differential equations of informational utility and cost simultaneously in order to obtain the optimum quantity of the remains to be conserved. Received: 9 January 1998 · Accepted: 4 February 1998     

A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.     

测风记录定量诊断方法的研究——等差数列的利用

测风记录的误读，是由分数误及整数误组成，根据基础理论，彩和定量诊断方法来分析并纠正其误。结果表明，左数列的利用可规范第一种误读。     

基础地理信息矢量数据综合处理实用工具的实现

在深入研究开源类库GDAL,ArcEngine组件的基础上,结合实际的生产经验,集成开发了具有编辑、入库、质检综合处理功能的矢量数据处理工具。本文详细阐述了该工具软件的开发思路与实现方法,为海量矢量数据综合处理提供了一个有效实用的解决方案。     

西北干旱区新疆水资源足迹及利用效率动态评估

 水资源足迹是如实反映人类对水资源消费利用的新概念,能深刻揭示社会经济系统对水资源的消费,为干旱缺水地区水资源科学管理提供了一个新视角。以地处西北干旱区的新疆为例,运用水资源足迹概念对1990—2005年新疆水资源足迹进行综合评价,然后采用动态计量的分析方法对水资源利用效率与水资源足迹、城乡消费结构之间的长期关系进行了分析。结果表明:新疆全社会水资源足迹总量从1990年的115.55亿m3增加到2005年的159.57亿m3,增幅38.1%,总体上呈现上升趋势。水足迹强度由1990年的0.42 m3\5元-1下降到2005年的0.06 m3\5元-1,降幅85.5%,说明水资源利用效率有了明显提高。城乡居民的消费水平、消费数量和消费结构发生了较大的变化。水资源利用效率不高与水资源足迹、城乡消费结构之间呈现一种长期稳定的趋势,需要及时采取应对策略与措施加以调控。     

带有习惯形成的最优消费-投资与闲暇选择问题

研究了在带有习惯形成,随机机会集,随机工资和劳动供给弹性的生命周期模型下的消费-投资和闲暇选择问题.在股票支付红利情形下,利用随机微分方程,建立了带有红利情形的证券市场模型.在投资者偏好由不可分离的冯诺依曼·摩根斯坦指数刻画下,给出了投资者最优消费-投资与闲暇选择策略的显式表达式.     

非一致地震激励地下综合管廊振动台模型试验研究(Ⅱ)——试验结果

本文以纵向非一致地震激励试验为主,对地下综合管廊振动台模型试验结果进行了分析,包括模型场地的加速度响应、结构的应变响应、结构和场地加速度响应关系、结构应变响应的原因、结构接头位移响应、结构在纵向非一致激励和一致激励下应变响应的区别。结果分析表明,本试验模型场地及模型结构设计合理,从中得到了关于地下综合管廊非一致地震激励作用下响应规律的一些新内容。     

自然灾害对重庆土地资源可持续利用的影响及对策

重庆作为多种自然灾害主要是气象和山地灾害的多发区,其土地资源可持续利用中存在着许多自然灾害限制因子。伴随着经济的发展、人口的激增与城市化的加速．人类对土地资源的粗放式、掠夺式利用也不断变本加厉,从而诱发和加剧了潜在的自然灾害,而自然灾害的发生又反作用于土地利用,使其现有的生产力下降。文章在分析自然灾害与土地资源利用的相互作用机制的基础上,针对重庆市土地资源利用现状与自然灾害特征,提出了土地资源可持续利用对策。