几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

Problems associated with tourism development in Southern Africa: The case of Transfrontier Conservation Areas

Tourism in Southern Africa is synonymous with the wildlife safari. In the post-colonial era the establishment of so-called ‘peaceparks’ that straddle the borders of states has come to be seen as a key not only to increasing tourism in the Southern African region, but also to the modernizing of conservation policies and the development of rural economies. This paper focuses on the global and continental presence of transfrontier conservation areas, the link between conservation and tourism development, and the current factors that constrain and influence the realization of an ‘African Dream’ — ‘establishment of the greatest animal kingdom’. The unstable political situation in Zimbabwe and how this negatively affects wildlife conservation and tourism in the Gonarezhou part of the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Park, serves as a case study. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Active faulting at the Eurasian, North American and Pacific plates junction

The active faults known and inferred in the area where the major Pacific, North American and Eurasian plates come together group into two belts. One of them comprises the faults striking roughly parallel to the Pacific ocean margin. The extreme members of the belt are the longitudinal faults of islands arcs, in its oceanic flank, and the faults along the continental margins of marginal seas, in its continental flank. The available data show that all these faults move with some strike-slip component, which is always right-lateral. We suggest that characteristic right-lateral, either partially or dominantly, kinematics of the fault movements has its source in oblique convergence of the Pacific plate with continental Eurasian and North American plates. The second belt of active faults transverses the extreme northeast Asia as a continental extension of the active mid-Arctic spreading ridge. The two active fault belts do not cross but come close to each other at the northern margin of the Sea of Okhotsk marking thus the point where the Pacific, North American and Eurasian plates meet.     

The Singapore River thematic zone: sustainable tourism in an urban context

This paper explores the concept of sustainable tourism and how it applies to urban destinations such as Singapore. As tourism is an important industry in Singapore, in terms of employment, business activity and an income generator, the Singapore Tourism Board is continuously looking at potential avenues to make Singapore a competitive destination. We examine the use of thematic zones in Singapore as a strategy to achieve its ambition of becoming a tourism capital of the world. By focusing on a case study of the Singapore River thematic zone (one of the 11 thematic zones identified by the Singapore Tourism Board), we assess the viability of thematic zones in ensuring sustainable urban tourism. The paper closes with some theoretical reflections and policy implications arising from our key findings.     

A 3D BEM-FEM methodology for simulation of high speed train induced vibrations

This work presents an efficient methodology for the analysis of vibrations in a railroad track system, induced by the passage of conventional and high-speed trains. To this end the Boundary Element Method is used to model the soil-tie system within the framework of impulse response techniques. Conventional Finite Element Methods along with Newmark's integration is used for the modeling of the rail system. The two methods are coupled at the tie-rail interface and the solution is obtained following a staggered, time marching scheme in an efficient manner. The methodology accounts for Soil-Structure Interaction and traveling wave effects. In addition, this work identifies the parameters that affect the efficient modeling of railroad track systems as they pertain to the proposed solution methodology.     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Studies on wind environment around high buildings in urban areas

High buildings or architectural complex in urban areas remarkably distort the urban surface wind fields. As the air flow approaches,local strong wind may appear around the buildings. The strong wind makes the pedestrians on sidewalks, entrances and terrace very uncomfortable and causes the pedestrian level wind environment problem. In this studies, hot-wire wind measurement, wind scouring in wind tunnel and numerical computation were carried out to evaluate the wind environment of tall buildings in the prevailing flow conditions in Beijing areas. The results obtained by three techniques were compared and mutually verified. The conclusions drawn from three approaches agree with each other. Also the advantages and limitations of each method were analyzed. It is suggested that the combination of different techniques may produce better assessment of wind environment around high buildings.     

The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of urban heat island variation in Beijing city and surrounding areas and impact factors based on remote sensing satellite data

Based on the land surface temperature (LST), the land cover classification map,vegetation coverage, and surface evapotranspiration derived from EOS-MODIS satellite data, and by the use of GIS spatial analytic technique and multivariate statistical analysis method, the urban heat island (UHI) spatial distribution of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities and its driving forces are studied in Beijing city and surrounding areas in 2001. The relationships among UHI distribution and landcover categories, topographic factor, vegetation greenness, and surface evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results indicate that: (i) The significant UHI occur in Beijing city areas in the four seasons due to high heat capacity and multi-reflection of compression building, as well as with special topographic features of its three sides surrounded by mountains,especially in the summer. The UHI spatial distribution is corresponding with the urban geometry structure profile. The LST difference is approximately 4-6℃ between Beijing city and suburb areas, comparatively is 8- 10℃ between Beijing city area and outer suburb area in northwestern regions. (ii) The UHI distribution and intensity in daytime are different from nighttime in Beijing city area, the nighttime UHI is obvious. However, in the daytime, the significant UHI mainly appears in the summer, the autumn takes second place, and the UHI in the winter and the spring seem not obvious. The surface evapotranspiration in suburb areas is larger than that in urban areas in the summer, and high latent heat exchange is evident, which leads to LST difference between city area and suburb area. (iii) The reflection of surface landcover categories is sensitive to the UHI, the correlation between vegetation greenness and UHI shows obviously negative.The scatterplot shows that there is the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R2 = 0.6481).The results demonstrate that the vegetation greenness is an important factor for reducing the UHI,and large-scale construction of greenbelts can considerably reduce the UHI effect.     

Internet‐Based GIS Mapping in Support of K‐12 Education

Internet‐based mapping provides a powerful alternative for successfully establishing GIS technology in the K‐12 education community, while simultaneously avoiding the traditional barriers associated with desktop GIS. Internet‐based GIS can support standards‐based inquiry methods of teaching and learning while providing basic analysis tools for studying and exploring geographic or scientific data in the classroom.     

夜间灯光遥感对城市发展类动能与相似性评估

评估城市发展水平与制定城市规划和城市发展政策息息相关.已有研究表明人口、国内生产总值(GDP)等统计数据和夜间灯光遥感数据能够用来衡量城市发展水平,但大多研究只关注城市发展总量,忽视了发展速度对城市发展的影响.因此,本文基于2012年—2019年Suomi NPP-VIIRS(Suomi National Polar-...