EXPERIMENTAL APPLICATION OF A THINNING SCHEME FOR THE ASSIMILATION OF SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA IN GRAPES-3DVAR

To reduce the spatial correlation of representation error in observations and computational complexity, we propose a thinning scheme that can extract typical observations within a certain range. This scheme is applied to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) with three-dimensional variation (3DVAR) to study the effect of the thinning radius on the assimilation results. The assimilation experiments indicate that when the ratio of the model resolution to the observational resolution is 1:3, the simulated results for precipitation are relatively good and have a relatively high equitable threat score (ETS). Moreover, the analysis errors in the temperature and the specific humidity are the smallest, the dependence of the norm gradient vector of the objective function on the number of iterations is slow, gentle, and close to 0, and the minimization results in improved conditions.     

Remote sensing and GIS based determination of groundwater dependent ecosystems in the Western Cape, South Africa

Finding the location of groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is important in determining the extent of restrictions that need to be placed upon the abstraction of groundwater. Remote sensing was combined with geographical information system (GIS) modelling to produce a GDE probability rating map for the Sandveld region, South Africa. Landsat TM imagery identified the areas indicating the probable presence of GDEs and GIS assisted in their delineation. Three GIS models were generated: a GIS model predicting landscape wetness potential (LWP model) based on terrain morphological features; the LWP model was modified to highlight groundwater generated landscape wetness potential (the resulting GglWP model); and a groundwater elevation model was interpolated, combining groundwater level measurements in boreholes in the region with digital elevation model data. Biomass indicators generated from Landsat were classified and combined with the GIS models, followed by field verification of riverine and wetland GDEs. The LWP model provided the most accurate results of the three models tested for GDEs in this region.

提高月降水量预报精度的一种尝试

用原始数据建立的多元自回归预报模型,虽然对气压,气温,绝对湿度的预报精度很高,但对月降水量的预报粗度较低,改用自典型相关因子建模,大大提高了月降水量的预报精度,对气压,气温,绝对湿度的预报亦有所改进。     

Historical fluxes of metal and metalloids in an aquatic ecosystem affected by land-use change and mining activities in northwestern Mexico

Freshwater reservoirs are essential owing because of their ecological, economic, and social importance. They are particularly vulnerable to contamination, as of metal and metalloids, derived from anthropogenic activities like mining. The temporal variations in trace element concentrations (arsenic (As), mercury (Hg), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn)), enrichment, fluxes, and possible sources were evaluated by studying two sediment cores from the La Angostura (ANG) Reservoir (northwest Mexico), using ²¹⁰Pb geochronology. The enrichment factors showed from null to minor enrichment for most elements, but moderate to severe enrichment of mercury (Hg). Most trace element concentrations had a detrital origin, and notable Hg concentration increases since the past decade were associated with severe drought periods, likely resulting from wildfires. The observed sediment concentrations of As and Hg can cause adverse effects on biota in the ecosystem since they are above the probable effect level (PEL). Development of strategies for metal attenuation in this reservoir is recommended and metals should be controlled until specific ecotoxicological studies are performed.     

太湖典型植物氨基酸组成特征及其对水环境的影响

在太湖两个不同湖区(东太湖和贡湖)各选择了8种不同类型的典型水生植物和1种陆生植物全株作为研究对象,采用邻苯二甲醛柱前衍生-反相高效液相色谱法对其中15种氨基酸的组成特征进行了分析,并探讨了植物来源氨基酸对湖泊水环境的影响.结果表明东太湖区域植物体中总可水解氨基酸(THAAs)的平均含量为861.6±182.96μmol/g,贡湖区域植物体中THAAs平均含量为700.0±232.3μmol/g;不同类型植物体中THAAs的含量大小依次为:沉水植物、浮叶植物挺水植物陆生植物;其中天冬氨酸、谷氨酸、精氨酸、丙氨酸和赖氨酸是THAAs的主要组成部分,这5种氨基酸的摩尔浓度占氨基酸总量的50%以上;太湖植物中THAAs所含的氮元素对植物总氮的贡献在30.7%~94.7%之间,是植物体氮元素的主要组分,也是内源氮输入的主要来源.东太湖区域采集的植物样品中各氨基酸的浓度比例与东太湖水体氨基酸组成差异较大,但与沉积物氨基酸组成较吻合,表明东太湖植物来源的有机质和氨基酸是沉积物中有机质和氨基酸的重要来源.     

基于SWAT模型的南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染模拟

本文利用SWAT模型结合实测数据,对南四湖流域2001-2010年年均非点源氮磷污染进行模拟,分析了南四湖流域非点源氮磷负荷空间分布特征,计算各河流流域对南四湖湖区污染的贡献率,并对非点源氮磷污染严重的关键区进行识别.研究表明:(1)先模拟湖东和湖西的两个典型小流域的非点源氮磷污染,并将模型推及整个南四湖流域,该方法不仅提高了计算效率,且得到了较好的模拟结果.通过对比发现,湖东的模拟效果要好于湖西,一定程度上说明SWAT模型在起伏较大的地区能取得更高的精度.(2)南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染严重,几乎所有区域的氮负荷超标,40%以上的区域磷负荷超标严重.湖东非点源氮磷污染较湖西严重,其中洸府河流域是南四湖湖区非点源氮磷污染的主要贡献者.(3)通过对径流量、泥沙负荷、氮负荷、磷负荷的相关分析可以得出,南四湖流域非点源氮负荷以溶解态为主,随径流进入水体;非点源磷负荷以吸附态为主,随泥沙进入水体.     

Modelling regional effects of artificial groundwater recharge in a multilayer aquifer characterized by perched water tables

This paper presents an approach to estimate the effects of a managed recharge experiment in a multilayer aquifer characterized by the presence of perched water tables in the Medina del Campo groundwater body, Douro basin, central Spain. A numerical model was developed to evaluate the effect of artificial recharge on the shallow sector of a regional-scale aquifer and on formerly active wetlands. The model was developed in the Visual MODFLOW Pro v.2011.1 environment in order to represent and analyse the regional impact of this artificial recharge event. Results suggest that the assumption of a single perched system may prove useful in regional contexts where data is limited. From a study site perspective, managed recharge is observed to increase shallow storage along the riverbanks, which is considered valuable for environmental purposes. However, downstream wetlands are unlikely to experience a significant recovery. Furthermore, only a small percentage of artificial recharge is expected to reach the deep regional aquifer. This method can be exported to settings characterized by the presence of perched aquifers and associated groundwater dependent ecosystems.     

RCCC-WBM水量平衡模型在北方典型流域的适用性研究

流域水文模型是开展环境变化影响分析和水资源评价的重要工具。以山西省的5个不同尺度的代表性流域为研究对象,分析了RCCC-WBM模型在山西省的区域适用性。结果表明:RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出山西省径流年内分配特征和年代际变化特点,对典型流域月径流量模拟的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数超过65%,水量模拟误差也较小,该模型在山西省具有较好的适用性,可以用于山西省水资源评价等方面的科学研究。     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

湖沼学是研究内陆水体的多学科整合科学——兼论我国湖沼学发展面临的挑战与机遇

湖沼学是研究内陆水体的多学科交叉综合性科学,自从Forel F.A.于1892年首次对湖沼学做出定义以来已有近130年历史.湖沼学的主要分支学科包括地质湖沼学(包括古湖沼学)、物理湖沼学、化学(生物地球化学)湖沼学和生物湖沼学.湖沼学的关键自然属性是通过跨学科的整合,从水生态系统水平综合分析相关过程与机理,并对生态系统变化进行预测.因此,湖泊学也是支撑水资源与生态系统保护、管理与修复的核心科学.然而,目前我国湖沼学发展面临分支学科发展不平衡、研究碎片化等问题,而人类活动加剧和气候变化对内陆水体生态系统的影响及管理对策是湖沼学研究面临的挑战与机遇.我国湖沼学研究亟需围绕人类活动、气候变化的影响,重点开展以下几个方面的工作:1)水动力与水文地貌特征变化及其环境生态效应; 2)营养盐和有机质生物地球化学循环及其环境生态效应; 3)食物网结构与功能; 4)外来入侵物种的影响与控制对策; 5)与水环境有关的传染病防治; 6)地表水生态评价; 7)生态系统演变机理与退化生态系统修复等.