Interannual Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific in CMIP5 Simulations

Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Nin?o3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux(evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2 M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Nin?o3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.     

基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。     

基于时序遥感的庐山自然保护区植被分类及其变化分析

自然保护区是生物多样性最丰富的区域,针对近年来庐山自然保护区森林生物多样性进行调查,了解保护区内植被的分布及其变化,对于保护庐山境内的林业资源具有重要的意义.论文利用2015-2018年Proba-Ⅴ卫星100m分辨率5d植被指数产品,使用最大值合成法、Hants时间序列谐波分析方法对数据进行平滑降噪处理,并采用随机森...     

新疆森林公园的分布及旅游开发初探

新疆森林公园的分布以山地为主,平原为辅,主要集中在天山北坡和阿尔泰山;树种等资源在山地主要有雪岭云杉,新疆落叶松,新疆冷杉等针叶林,平原则主要以胡杨、灰杨等荒漠湖岸林为主,并分布着多种新疆特色的灌木,新疆森林公园起步较晚,但数量稳步增长,并已根据不同层次的需求,进行旅游开发建设,发展势头良好。通过对新疆森林公园的数量、级别、面积及建设时间等基本情况进行分析,进一步对新疆森林公园的现状及功效分析,得出进一步更好的发展森林公园的必要性。最后,提出抓住森林公园“天然养吧”等资源优势,结合龙头景区,因地制宜开发建设,并在开展旅游活动中突出地方特色,不断完善森林公园管理规范,实现资源永续利用的发展建议。     

随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要.本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007-2012年的数据作为训练数据...     

亚洲热带气候态夏季风涌传播特征及其对中国降水的影响

基于1979—2020年逐日的NOAA向外长波辐射资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,以及全球CMAP再分析降水资料,探讨了气候态亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播过程及与我国夏季相应的降水联系。分析结果表明,主汛期亚洲热带气候态夏季风季节内振荡(CISO)活动是亚洲夏季风活动的主要特征,随时间北传的亚洲热带夏季风CISO称为亚洲热带夏季风涌,主要有南亚夏季风涌和南海夏季风涌。亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播可分为四个阶段。在亚洲热带夏季风涌的发展阶段,印度洋区域低频气旋与对流活跃,孟加拉湾和南海热带区域被低频东风控制,我国大部分地区无降水发生,降水中心位于两广地区。当进入亚洲热带夏季风涌活跃阶段,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频气旋和对流活跃,东亚低频“PJ”波列显著,我国降水中心北移到长江以南的附近区域。亚洲热带夏季风涌减弱阶段,孟加拉湾与南海低频气旋消亡,对流减弱,低频西风加强,日本南部附近为低频反气旋控制,我国长江中下游低频南风活跃,降水中心也北移到长江中下游地区,而华南地区已基本无降水,此阶段的大气低频环流场与亚洲热带夏季风涌发展阶段基本相反。进入亚洲热带夏季风涌间歇阶段时,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低...     

有限区域大气-海浪耦合模式的建立及海表粗糙度参数化试验

利用LINUX操作系统下的进程通讯(IPC)技术将中尺度大气模式MM5(V3)与第三代海浪模式WW3进行双向耦合,建立考虑大气-海浪相互作用的风浪耦合模式,在耦合模式中引入3种海表粗糙度参数化方案,通过对一次热带气旋过程的模拟,研究大气-海浪相互作用对热带气旋系统的影响及耦合模式对海表粗糙度参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明:LINUX系统下的进程通讯技术可以方便有效地实现大气和海浪模式的双向耦合,模式运行稳定;耦合模式能够较好的模拟热带气旋的发展和演变过程及其影响下海浪场的分布和演变,模拟结果对海表粗糙度参数化方案较敏感;海浪的反馈作用同时影响了海气间的动力和热力作用过程,不同的海表粗糙度参数化方案下,海浪对两种作用过程不同的影响程度决定了其对气旋系统强度的影响。     

Seagrass as the main food source of Neaxius acanthus (Thalassinidea: Strahlaxiidae), its burrow associates, and of Corallianassa coutierei (Thalassinidea: Callianassidae)

Burrows of the thalassinidean shrimps Neaxius acanthus and Corallianassa coutierei are striking aspects in tropical seagrass beds of the Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia. Burrow construction, behaviour, burrow type and associated commensal community were investigated to clarify the ecological role and food requirements of these shrimps and their commensals. Gut content analysis and stable-isotope data were used to unravel the food sources and the trophic interactions among the commensal community.Individuals of Neaxius acanthus were caught on Bone Batang Island. In narrow aquaria filled with sediment they constructed burrows resembling those found in the field. During burrow construction and maintenance only little sediment was brought to the surface, most was sorted and compacted to create a distinct lining. Maintenance work by single shrimps typically took about 5 min, after which the shrimp walked up to the entrance and rested for a similar period of time. There were no differences in behaviour between day and night. Intrasexual encounters inside the burrow were characterised by a high level of aggression and all resulted in one participant being driven out of the burrow. Intersexual encounters led to coexistence with both animals taking turns in burrow maintenance and guarding the entrance. Offered seagrass leaves were pulled underground, cut into pieces and eventually integrated into the lining. Burrows of Corallianassa coutierei resembled a deep U-shape. Chambers branching off halfway down and at the deepest point contained seagrass fragments. All steep parts of the burrow were lined similar to burrows of N. acanthus.No commensals were found associated with Corallianassa coutierei. However, burrows of Neaxius acanthus in the field typically contained a pair of shrimps, up to 8 individuals of the commensal bivalve Barrimysia cumingii and large numbers of gammarid amphipods. Other animals found associated with the burrow were the goby Austrolethops wardi, a palaemonid shrimp species and two species of tube-building polychaetes, one of which was also found as an epibiont on N. acanthus.Stable-isotope and gut content analyses indicate that the diet of Neaxius acanthus, its commensal Austrolethops wardi, and Corallianassa coutierei is mainly derived from detrital seagrass leaves, with a potential contribution of sediment organic matter and seagrass epiphytes. In contrast the isotopic signature of Barrimysia cumingii suggests the presence of symbiotic sulphide metabolism bacteria. This study underlines that, besides their interactions with the surrounding ecosystem, thalassinid shrimp burrows play an important role as a sub-habitat with a unique associated fauna.     

热带风暴热力非对称结构对其运动的影响

研究了热力非对称结构对0421号热带风暴"海马(Haima)"的移动和强度变化的影响。通过物理量场诊断分析发现,热带风暴(气旋)的热力结构在垂直、水平方向均呈非对称分布。热力因子对热带风暴的影响,主要体现在低层。热带风暴朝其移向前方的风暴内部的非绝热增温中心偏折,并有向此方向加速的趋势。了解热带风暴的热力结构分布特征及其对热带风暴移动的影响,对短期预报热带风暴的移动有一定的指示意义。     

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。