中国旅游资源开发模式与旅游区域可持续发展理念

从旅游资源开发与区域关系的角度，指出国内旅游资源在开发方面存在着不同的理念与方法论模式，导致不同的区域旅游开发效果；从旅游可持续发展的原则出发，旅游区域开发在理论上应该建立多元趋势分析旅游开发理论体系，在实践上应建立鞠域“大旅游”的结构系统，并提出区域旅游开发的一些理论。     

Estimating the seismic displacement of friction pendulum isolators based on non‐linear response history analysis

A procedure for developing equations that estimate the isolator displacement due to strong ground motion is applied to buildings isolated with the friction pendulum system. The resulting design equations, based on rigorous non‐linear analysis, offer an alternative to the iterative equivalent‐linear methods used by current U.S. building codes. The governing equations of the system are reduced to a form such that the median normalized displacement of the system due to an ensemble of ground motions is found to depend on only the isolation period—a function of the curvature of the isolator—and the friction force at incipient slip normalized by peak ground velocity. The normalization is effective in minimizing the dispersion of the normalized displacement for an ensemble of ground motions, implying that the median normalized displacement is a reliable estimate of response. The design equations reflect the significant (20 to 38%) increase in displacement when the excitation includes two lateral components of ground motion instead of just one component. Equivalent‐linear methods are shown to underestimate by up to 30% the exact median displacement determined by non‐linear response history analysis for one component of ground motion, and building codes include at most a 4.4% increase for a second component. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

某滑坡软弱夹层抗剪强度取值方法的研究

文章主要针对软弱夹层抗剪强度取值所存在的争议，通过对贵州新街子滑坡的软弱夹层分别选择比例极限、屈服极限及峰值作为剪应力值，采用最小二乘法获得比例抗剪强度、屈服抗剪强度和峰值抗剪强度。以参数选取中应用较为成熟的反分析方法推求力学性质参数c、φ值作为判据对以上3种参数进行比较。计算结果表明：本滑坡软弱夹层中由于含泥量较大，而且粘塑性较强，屈服抗剪强度和反分析得到的抗剪强度偏差最小，比例抗剪强度偏差最大，峰值抗剪强度居中。并以此3种抗剪强度进行天然状态下滑坡稳定性验算，结果表明选用比例极限抗剪强度与当前滑坡的地质现象不符，选用峰值极限抗剪强度安全储备较低，而选取屈服极限抗剪强度最为合理。用此参数进行设计，滑坡已经得到了良好的治理。在取值研究中认为采用试验与反分析相结合的方法确定滑坡稳定性计算参数是比较合理的。以上结论为滑坡中软弱夹层抗剪强度取值的选择提供了重要的依据。     

Converted-wave seismology in anisotropic media revisited,Part I: Basic theory

We have developed new basic theories for calculating the conversion point and the travel time of the P-SV converted wave (C-wave) in anisotropic, inhomogeneous media. This enables the use of conventional procedures such as semblance analysis, Dix-type model building and Kirchhoff summation, to implement anisotropic processing, and makes anisotropic processing affordable. Here we present these new developments in two parts: basic theory and application to velocity analysis and parameter estimation. This part deals with the basic theory, including both conversion-point calculation and moveout analysis. Existing equations for calculating the PS-wave (C-wave) conversion point in layered media with vertical transverse isotropy (VTI) are strictly limited to offsets about half the reflector depth (an offset-depth ratio, xlz, of 0.5), and those for calculating the C-wave traveltimes are limited to offsets equal to the reflector depth (x/z=l.0). In contrast, the new equations for calculating the conversion-point extend into offsets about three-times the reflector depth (x/z=3.0), those for calculating the C-wave traveltimes extend into offsets twice the reflector depth (x/z=2.0). With the improved accuracy, the equations can help in C-wave data processing and parameter estimation in anisotropic, inhomogeneous media. This work is funded by the Edinburgh Anisotropy Project (EAP) of the British Geological Survey. First author: Xiangyang Li, Mr. Li is currently a professorial research seismologist (Grade 6) and technical director of the Edinburgh Anisotropy Project in the British Geological Survey. He also holds a honorary professorship in multicomponent seismology at the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh. He received his BSc(1982) in Geophysics from Changchun Geological Institute, China, an MSc (1984) in applied geophysics from East China Petroleum Institute (now known as the China University of Petroleum), and a PhD (1992) in seismology from the University of Edinburgh. During 1984–1987, he worked as a lecturer with the East China Petroleum Institute. Since 1991, he has been employed by the British Geological Survey. His research interests include seismic anisotropy and multicomponent seismology.     

2-D crustal Poisson’s ratio from seismic travel time inversion in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region

Based on the inversion method of 2D velocity structure and interface, the crustal velocity structures of P-wave and S-wave along the profile L ₁ are determined simultaneously with deep seismic sounding data in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region, and then its Poisson’s ratio is obtained. Calculated results show that this technique overcomes some defects of traditional forward calculation method, and it is also very effective to determine Poisson’s ratio distribution of deep seismic sounding profile, especially useful for study on volcanic magma and crustal fault zone. Study result indicates that there is an abnormally high Poisson’s ratio body that is about 30 km wide and 12 km high in the low velocity region under Tianchi crater. Its value of Poisson’s ratio is 8% higher than that of surrounding medium and it should be the magma chamber formed from melted rock with high temperature. There is a high Poisson’s ratio zone ranging from magma chamber to the top of crust, which may be the uprise passage of hot substance. The lower part with high Poisson’s ratio, which stretches downward to Moho, is possibly the extrusion way of hot substance from the uppermost mantle. The conclusions above are consistent with the study results of both tomographic determination of 3D crustal structure and magnetotelluric survey in this region. Foundation item: Key Project from China Earthquake Administration and the Project (95-11-02-01) from Ministry of Science and Technology (2001DIA10003). Contribution No. RCEG200401, Geophysical Exploration Center, China Earthquake Administration.     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

基于多源数据融合的山地型旅游区游客时空行为研究

随着旅游者对休闲娱乐类旅游需求的不断增加,山地型旅游区已成为最受欢迎的旅游目的地之一,利用新兴且高效的轨迹记录方式挖掘山地型旅游区游客在小尺度范围内动态的时空行为特征和制约因素,对旅游区线路设计和旅游产品优化尤为重要,也将为山地型旅游区的深化发展和科学管理提供建议。本文以湖北省恩施州恩施大峡谷为案例地,基于“六只脚”平台的GNSS轨迹及位置照片数据,结合GIS在线地图绘制的景区路网和从BigMap平台获取的POI数据,选择GNSS轨迹栅格化的概念模式解析出恩施大峡谷游客轨迹的时空行为特征,尝试探讨与其他类别旅游区时空行为特征的差异,从而总结出山地型旅游区的行为特征,并通过网络点评数据和游记文本等网络文本挖掘行为特征形成的影响因素。研究表明：(1)月份和季相层面,游客行为5月游客量处于峰值,节日效应明显,短假期效应较强;淡旺季游客行为轨迹呈非集聚性,旺季游客量主要受气候条件影响呈不稳定态势;(2)游客行为轨迹于11:00—14:00游客量达到顶峰,日内结束时间相对较早,且兴趣点选择偏向知名度高的七星寨景区;(3)空间分布特征层面,受时空因素控制,单一路径景区轨迹集中度较强;(4)不同性别...     

不同测算方法下行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响分析

行程时间不确定性导致了可达性随时间的变化,相关研究表明忽略行程时间不确定性会高估可达性水平。既有可达性研究往往用行程时间可靠性表示行程时间不确定性,但未考虑不同可达性模型结果的差异以及行程时间可靠性价值。本文结合各OD之间的行程时间分布特征,构建方差型的行程时间可靠性来描述行程时间不确定性,并进一步将行程时间可靠性纳入到广义出行时间成本中,建立了时间距离模型、潜力模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型4种基于位置的可达性测算方法,以比较在不同测算方法下,行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响。深圳的案例研究表明：(1)忽略行程时间不确定性会使全区域的可达性至少被高估5.04%,最大被高估95.04%。潜力模型、时间距离模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型的高估幅度由低到高;(2)行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响存在阈值效应,阈值越高,可达性受影响的程度越小;(3)从空间分布来看,行程时间不确定性对可达性水平高和低的区域都有一定影响。若不考虑行程时间不确定性,可达性高的区域高估值大,而在可达性低的区域,可达性高估的百分比较大,高估百分比中位数的差异程度最大可达77.1%;(4)行程时间不确定性对潜力模型可达性分类的...     

融合用户特征与群体智慧的多目标旅游线路推荐方法

针对旅游线路推荐过程中的数据稀疏与冷启动问题,本文提出了一种融合用户特征与群体智慧的多目标旅游线路推荐方法。首先,通过携程网、望路行程、百度指数等网站获取景点信息与对应的群体智慧数据,包括景点的位置、票价,用户评论、评分、浏览数据等;其次,结合用户特征与群体智慧数据构建景点对不同特征用户的综合吸引力并计算旅游线路吸引力指数;最后,定义旅游线路推荐多目标优化函数并利用多目标遗传算法NSGA2生成线路推荐列表。相较于传统旅游线路推荐方法,本文所提出的方法充分考虑了用户实际需求（消费侧）与景点吸引力（供给侧）,使得用户能够以较少的时间开销,尽可能多地游览热门景点。同时,推荐过程中根据用户的性别、年龄、出行方式、出行时间对用户群体进行划分,使得推荐准确性更高。实验结果表明,该方法考虑的因子可以有效提高用户在路线规划过程中的满意度,所推荐的旅游线路不仅具有更高的综合吸引力指数,还能够有效减少路程时间。此外,推荐结果也更加具有多样性,有助于推动智能化旅游线路推荐的发展。     

峰丛洼地石漠化景观演化与土地利用模式

峰丛洼地石漠化景观格局是土壤分布空间格局的制约下,岩溶生态系统对植被强烈依附性条下,由不同类型人类活动决定的。农耕、放牧和砍伐是最主要的破坏峰丛植被的人类活动;缓坡耕地形成轻度石漠化景观;陡坡地形成中度石漠化景观,因坡面土壤流失,演化为更高等级石漠化景观;峰丛陡坡放牧和砍伐都可能直接形成峰丛上部大面积中-强度石漠化景观,出现峰丛坡面石漠化景观分异,产生不同的土地利用模式。