山区过渡性地理空间人文自然交互性识别与分异解析

山区因其人文自然交互过程具有显著的地域性、时空分异性与不确定性,成为典型的过渡性地理空间,其类型量化识别与分异特征的解析可为山区乡村振兴背景下国土空间高质量发展提供决策依据。本文基于地理不确定性的概念构建时空变率指数,识别出中国山区过渡性地理空间分布与分区,并运用地理探测器解析其地理时空变率的驱动力谱。结果发现：中国山区过渡性地理空间总面积为238.32×10⁴ km²（约占中国陆表面积的1/4）,其地理时空变率从第一阶梯到第三阶梯呈递减趋势;全国山区过渡性地理空间可分为12个分区,其中昆仑—祁连山分区面积最大;人文驱动因子对人口与土地利用的时空变率解析力最强,基础地形因子对植被覆盖时空变率与地理时空变率指数的解析力最为显著,各因子中海拔与夜间灯光的解析驱动力最强。整体而言,人文要素的时空动态均对东南山区过渡性地理空间具有显著的塑造性,而西北山区过渡性地理空间主要受到自然要素的时间变化和人文要素的空间变化所驱动。本文为山区过渡性地理空间的不确定性、多样性与人地关系地域性的定量研究提供了新的见解与启示。     

中国数字创意上市挂牌企业空间格局及其影响因素

基于中国数字创意上市企业、新三板挂牌企业数据,运用核密度估计、标准差椭圆、基尼系数、负二项回归模型等方法探究其空间分布特征及影响因素。研究发现：① 数字创意上市挂牌企业总体呈“东密西疏”的空间结构特征,集聚与扩张共存并以集聚为主,且始终保持京津冀、长三角、珠三角等多核心空间集聚形态,空间分布高度不均衡且区域重心北向迁移显著。② 数字创意上市挂牌企业空间分布具有行业异质性,其集聚区域、集聚强度因产业特性和所有制性质不同而存在差异。③ 数字创意上市挂牌企业的空间分异受到集聚经济、基础设施、正式制度、非正式制度因素中的文化活跃度与企业家创新精神、宏观经济环境因素中的全球连通性、金融集聚水平等因素影响,具有明显“高等级城市偏好”。企业空间分异影响因素因产业特性和所有制不同存在差异。     

单体“海大1号”长牡蛎苗种室内人工培育模式的优化

为提高单体“海大1号”长牡蛎(Crassostrea gigas)的培育效率,本研究以3种培育模式(下降流、上升流和静水)、6个水流量梯度(20、35、50、65、80和95 mL/s)和6个培育密度梯度(2.5、5、7.5、10、12.5和15个/mL)对单体“海大1号”长牡蛎苗种中间培育生长情况进行了研究。研究表明,单体“海大1号”长牡蛎苗种中间培育时,上升流和下降流均比静水培育效果好,培育前5天采用下降流、第6~29天采用上升流时,稚贝生长快、死亡率低;水流量小于65 mL/s时,随水流量的增加,稚贝生长加快,死亡率降低,水流量在65~80 mL/s时,单体牡蛎稚贝生长存活最优,第29天时最大壳高达(1534.81±65.23)μm。单体“海大1号”长牡蛎稚贝苗种中间培育时,随着培育密度的增大,挤迫效应逐渐显现,密度为7.5个/mL时,死亡率相对较低,且稚贝生长速度快,在第29天时稚贝壳高最大可达(1520.63±51.72)μm。基于以上研究结果,建议在规模化单体“海大1号”长牡蛎稚贝中间培育时,采用上升流和下降流相结合的流水培育方式,适当增加水流量,及时疏散密度。本研究优化了单体“海大1号”长牡蛎室内培育模式,为单体牡蛎规模化培育提供了参考方法和理论依据。     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN ESTABLISHING AN INDEX FOR THE EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SATISFACTION

An evaluation index is a prerequisite for scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service. This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators. Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian (China) in 2010, this study investigates the suitability of the fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index. Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators, correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer, then one indicator could be removed, or the two indicators merged. For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers, although clustering reveals attribute correlations, these indicators may not be substituted for one another. Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.     

Bayesian model selection for sand with generalization ability evaluation

Current studies have focused on selecting constitutive models using optimization methods or selecting simple formulas or models using Bayesian methods. In contrast, this paper deals with the challenge to propose an effective Bayesian-based selection method for advanced soil models accounting for the soil uncertainty. Four representative critical state-based advanced sand models are chosen as database of constitutive model. Triaxial tests on Hostun sand are selected as training and testing data. The Bayesian method is enhanced based on transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whereby the generalization ability for each model is simultaneously evaluated, for the model selection. The most plausible/suitable model in terms of predictive ability, generalization ability, and model complexity is selected using training data. The performance of the method is then validated by testing data. Finally, a series of drained triaxial tests on Karlsruhe sand is used for further evaluating the performance.     

Rise and fall of recent Chinese coastal resort development: Case of Beihai Silver Beach, Guangxi, China

Based upon a case study of Silver Beach coastal resort of Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, this article examines the rise and fall of Chinese coastal tourist resort development since the 1980s. It explores the causes for and responses to the decline of Chinese coastal resorts. The data were collected through in-depth interviews with twelve local key information providers, and secondary information sources such as government archives, survey reports, and resort plans. It was found that the rise and fall of Chinese coastal resorts in the last three decades is closely linked to the transitional reform from a central planned economy to a market economy. Three stages of coastal tourism development were identified in a sequence of rapid growth, decline and redevelopment. It was government financial funds and high local government involvement that promoted the rapid expansion of coastal resorts during the 1980s. However, coastal resort decline occurred when transitional reform was intensified and deflationary policy executed after 1992. Institutional failure is found to be the main reason of Chinese coastal resorts decline since the mid-1990s. The government-dominated pattern could not be sustained and should be restructured in forthcoming coastal tourism development in China. Revival strategies should emphasize enhancing market-oriented reform in the declining resorts on both supply and demand sides.     

县域特色产业形成和演化机理研究进展

培育壮大县域特色产业是中国统筹区域城乡发展的战略重点之一, 研究县域特色产业也是区域可持续发展研究的重要内容。本文从理论视角、热点领域、研究方法3 个方面对近年来县域特色产业研究的重点进行了梳理。县域特色产业作为区域优势和产业特点的结合产物, 相关研究的理论视角基本属于人地关系地域系统的基础理论体系, 同时借鉴了生态学、系统学理论观点和分析框架, 为清晰刻画产业内外影响因子的共栖关系和互动效应提供了有效途径。从研究领域上看, 关注点从地方经济发展到全球生产网络、从传统影响因素到新因素, 与时俱进, 但是宏观研究和微观研究相互脱节现象突出, 在一定程度上影响了研究成果的实践指导意义。从研究方法上看, 相关研究正在从以定性描述和逻辑推理为主, 向定性和定量相结合的综合集成方法应用转变, 但受到数据可获取性的限制, 现象和变化趋势的驱动机制分析的技术方法亟待完善。     

Boundary shift of potential suitable agricultural area in farming-grazing transitional zone in Northeastern China under background of climate change during 20th century

Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded： 1） The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2） The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3） The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul~re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.     

转型期中国城市公共服务设施供给模式及其形成机制研究

城市公共服务设施供给模式与社会经济背景紧密相关,改革开放以来,社会经济体制转型促使我国城市公共服务设施供给模式发生变革,其供给主体结构由计划经济时期的单一化政府垄断转向政府公共部门、市场企业组织及社会非营利组织多元参与;在供给主体的制度设计上,供给决策由政治主导转向利益驱动,生产与提供机制由一体化转向垂直分离,垂直层级式管理机制也逐步转型为政府主导下的全方位监督。多元化供给主体及多样化机制组合驱动城市公共服务设施供给模式综合变革,是转型期制度政策因素、市场因素和社会因素共同作用的结果,体现出结构—能动性互动机制。     

贵州雷公山地区摆吉锑矿矿床成因探讨

雷公山地区系多期次构造运动形成的古隆起区,即雷公山复背斜,出露地层为上元古界浅变质岩系。该区位于不同时期逆冲推覆滑脱面发育的昂因断层、西江断层之间,两断层间发育的过渡性剪切带和脆性断裂构造系统,控制了雷公山锑矿带的分布;斜列的次级背斜所显示的构造高