The “Zero-order Model” revisited: Paul Schindler's influence on the development of trace metal scavenging models

In 1975 Paul Schindler produced the first oceanic trace metal scavenging model to explicitly include the role of surface chemistry as a control on trace metal water column residence times. The eighteen years that have elapsed since the publication of Schindler's seminal paper have seen the development of a variety of oceanic scavenging models; yet, the fundamental insight of his Zero-order Model remains the benchmark. This paper describes the role of Paul Schindler's work on surface chemistry in providing a framework for the current generation of trace element scavenging models.     

On the tidal variation of the geopotential

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.     

碳中和目标下关键矿产在清洁能源转型中的作用、供需分析及其建议

在"碳中和"目标的驱动下，全球能源系统向清洁化、低碳化甚至无碳化发展已是大势所趋。针对向清洁能源转型的需求，采用了统计对比、分类汇总、综合分析等方法，分析研究了关键矿产在电池、电网、低碳发电和氢能等行业中的作用和需求。结合当前关键矿产产量的地理集中度高、项目开发周期长、资源质量下降等矿产供应和投资计划不能满足清洁能源转型的需求等问题，提出确保关键矿产多样性供应，推动价值链各环节的技术创新，扩大回收利用，增强供应链弹性和市场透明度，将更高的环境、社会和治理标准纳入主流程及加强生产者和消费者之间的国际合作等建议。     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

On Szebehely's problem for holonomic systems involving generalized potential functions

We consider the problem of finding the generalized potential function V = U _i(q ¹, q ²,..., q ⁿ)q ⁱ + U(q ¹, q ²,...;q ⁿ) compatible with prescribed dynamical trajectories of a holonomic system. We obtain conditions necessary for the existence of solutions to the problem: these can be cast into a system of n – 1 first order nonlinear partial differential equations in the unknown functions U ₁, U ₂,...;, U _n, U. In particular we study dynamical systems with two degrees of freedom. Using adapted coordinates on the configuration manifold M ₂ we obtain, for potential function U(q ¹, q ²), a classic first kind of Abel ordinary differential equation. Moreover, we show that, in special cases of dynamical interest, such an equation can be solved by quadrature. In particular we establish, for ordinary potential functions, a classical formula obtained in different way by Joukowsky for a particle moving on a surface.Work performed with the support of the Gruppo Nazionale di Fisica Matematica (G.N.F.M.) of the Italian National Research Council.     

The petroleum generation potential and effective oil window of humic coals related to coal composition and age

A worldwide data set of more than 500 humic coals from the major coal-forming geological periods has been used to analyse the evolution in the remaining (Hydrogen Index, HI) and total (Quality Index, QI) generation potentials with increasing thermal maturity and the ‘effective oil window’ (‘oil expulsion window’). All samples describe HI and QI bands that are broad at low maturities and that gradually narrow with increasing maturity. The oil generation potential is completely exhausted at a vitrinite reflectance of 2.0–2.2%R_o or T_max of 500–510 °C. The initial large variation in the generation potential is related to the original depositional conditions, particularly the degree of marine influence and the formation of hydrogen-enriched vitrinite, as suggested by increased sulphur and hydrogen contents. During initial thermal maturation the HI increases to a maximum value, HI_max. Similarly, QI increases to a maximum value, QI_max. This increase in HI and QI is related to the formation of an additional generation potential in the coal structure. The decline in QI with further maturation is indicating onset of initial oil expulsion, which precedes efficient expulsion. Liquid petroleum generation from humic coals is thus a complex, three-phase process: (i) onset of petroleum generation, (ii) petroleum build-up in the coal, and (iii) initial oil expulsion followed by efficient oil expulsion (corresponding to the effective oil window). Efficient oil expulsion is indicated by a decline in the Bitumen Index (BI) when plotted against vitrinite reflectance or T_max. This means that in humic coals the vitrinite reflectance or T_max values at which onset of petroleum generation occurs cannot be used to establish the start of the effective oil window. The start of the effective oil window occurs within the vitrinite reflectance range 0.85–1.05%R_o or T_max range 440–455 °C and the oil window extends to 1.5–2.0%R_o or 470–510 °C. For general use, an effective oil window is proposed to occur from 0.85 to 1.7%R_o or from 440 to 490 °C. Specific ranges for HI_max and the effective oil window can be defined for Cenozoic, Jurassic, Permian, and Carboniferous coals. Cenozoic coals reach the highest HI_max values (220–370 mg HC/g TOC), and for the most oil-prone Cenozoic coals the effective oil window may possibly range from 0.65 to 2.0%R_o or 430 to 510 °C. In contrast, the most oil-prone Jurassic, Permian and Carboniferous coals reach the expulsion threshold at a vitrinite reflectance of 0.85–0.9%R_o or T_max of 440–445 °C.     

Hydrology and hydrogeology of Sakaryabaşı Karstic springs, Çifteler, Turkey

The Sakarya River is one of the largest rivers in Turkey and is fed mainly from Sakaryabaşı springs. The Sakaryabaşı springs are located in the Central Anatolia and issue from confined/semi-confined karst having a thermal component and therefore, having quite different hydrogeological characteristics as compared to the Taurus Karst region, a typical example of the Mediterranean type of karst. The karstic carbonate rocks that form the groundwater reservoir are overlain by a thick semi-pervious overburden of mainly clastics of Neogene age. Tectonics is the major factor controlling the occurrence of the karst springs in the area where topography is rather flat. This study aimed at explaining the occurrence and movement of the karst groundwater within the system by use of hydrogeological, chemical, and isotopic tools. Isotopic composition of the waters revealed that all waters in the region are of meteoric origin and the thermal component is due to deep circulation. The catchment area of the hydrogeological system extends to the south and groundwater movement is towards the outlets, which are in a depression along a major fault. The movement of the groundwater, based on analysis of remotely sensed images, is controlled mainly by structural elements.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.