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91.
Yucca Mountain, the proposed site for the high-level nuclear waste repository, is located just south of where the present
water table begins a sharp rise in elevation. This large hydraulic gradient is a regional feature that extends for over 100 km.
Yucca Mountain and its vicinity are underlain by faulted and fractured tuffs with hydraulic conductivities controlled by flow
through the fractures. Close to and parallel with the region of large hydraulic gradient, and surrounding the core of the
Timber Mountain Caldera, there is a 10- to 20-km-wide zone containing few faults and thus, most likely, few open fractures.
Consequently, this zone should have a relatively low hydraulic conductivity, and this inference is supported by the available
conductivity measurements in wells near the large hydraulic gradient. Also, slug injection tests indicate significantly higher
pressures for fracture opening in wells located near the large hydraulic gradient compared to the opening pressures in wells
further to the south, hence implying that lower extensional stresses prevail to the north with consequently fewer open fractures
there. Analytical and numerical modeling shows that such a boundary between media of high and low conductivity can produce
the observed, large hydraulic gradient, with the high conductivity medium having a lower elevation than the water table. Further,
as fractures can close due to tectonic activity, the conductivity of the Yucca Mountain tuffs can be reduced to a value near
that for the hydraulic barrier due to strain release by a moderate earthquake. Under these conditions, simulations show that
the elevation of the steady-state water table could rise between 150 and 250 m at the repository site. This elevation rise
is due to the projected shift in the location of the large hydraulic gradient to the south in response to a moderate earthquake,
near magnitude 6, along one of the major normal faults adjacent to Yucca Mountain. As the proposed repository would only be
200–400 m above the present water table, this predicted rise in the water table indicates a potential hazard involving water
intrusion.
Received: 7 June 1996 / Accepted: 19 November 1996 相似文献
92.
地震和测井资料联合反演储层物性参数的方法 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
为了充分利用测井资料较高的纵向分辨率及其反映井壁周围物性直接准确的特点和地震资料良好的横向可追踪性,针对厚储层和薄储层地震—地质模型分别提出了利用测井和地震资料联合反演纵横波速度和密度参数的方法。理论模型的计算结果表明,反演方法是切实可行的 相似文献
93.
H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331
The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein
as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure,
reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of
the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty
introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the
essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic
input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.
Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable,
consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify
the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables.
As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of
frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996 相似文献
94.
R. M. W. Musson 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(2-3):105-119
Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features. 相似文献
95.
Federico Murrone Fabio Rossi Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510
A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the
hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This
latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework,
involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response
to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing
contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of
the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering
the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system
represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by
information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter
parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model
application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins. 相似文献
96.
概述了同位素封闭体系内的矿物氧扩散和同位素交换机制及其在地质速率计上的应用。火成岩从高温冷却或变质岩从高峰主质温度冷却过程中,由于冷却速度不同,扩散作用导致的矿物晶体内部及晶粒间氧同位素再平衡也有所不同。通过实测岩石中各组成矿物氧同位素比值,模式含量和颗粒半径,据矿物氧扩散和同位素交换模型,可以估算出岩石的冷却速率。 相似文献
97.
金矿床地球化学异常模式研究的新进展 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
论述了近十年来金矿床地球化学异常模式研究的新进展,90年代以前研究和建立了石英脉和蚀变岩型金矿地球化学异常模式,90年代以来,研究和建立了中国主要类型金矿床地球化学导航异常模式,热液金矿床和原生叠加晕理想模式,金矿床包裹体气晕,离子晕及其叠加晕理想模式。 相似文献
98.
99.
100.
Numerical simulations for coupled rock deformation and gas leak flow in parallel coal seams 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Peide Sun> 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2004,22(1):1-17
Based on the new viewpoint of interaction mechanics for solid and gas, gas leakage in parallel deformable coal seams can be
understood. That is, under the action of varied geophysical fields, the methane gas flow in a double deformable coal seam
can be essentially considered to be compressible with time-dependent and mixed permeation and diffusion through a pore-cleat
deformable, heterogeneous and anisotropic medium. From this new viewpoint, coupled mathematical models for coal seam deformation
and gas leak flow in parallel coal seams were formulated and the numerical simulations for slow gas emission from the parallel
coal seams are presented. It is found that coupled models might be close to reality. Meanwhile, a coupled model for solid
deformation and gas leak flow can be applied to the problems of gas leak flow including mining engineering, gas drainage engineering
and mining safety engineering in particular the prediction of the safe range using protective layer mining where coal and
gas outbursts can efficiently be prevented.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献