China’s corridors-in-the-sky design and space-time congestion identification and the influence of air routes’ traffic flow

Journal of Geographical Sciences - With rapid development of air transportation, the airspace structure of the future will need to be flexible and dynamic to accommodate the increase in traffic...     

基于高效统计模型预测9月北极航道沿线海冰范围

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration, both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future. Here, a novel data-driven method, the causal effect networks algorithm, is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction. The whole study area was also divided into two parts: the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice. The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE) and southern region(SSIE) at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65% and 79% of the variances, respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE) is limited at a lead time of 1 month. At lead times of 1–4 months, local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors. When the lead time is more than 4 months, the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE. We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.     

多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估研究

本研究将气象观测信息与网络信息相结合,提出了一种多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估方法：利用长时间气象观测数据分析雪灾的致灾强度时空特征,计算不同年遇型雪灾致灾强度;对门户网站、高速公路网站中节假日道路拥堵的新闻报道进行信息挖掘,获取高速公路暴露度;采用风险矩阵进行雪灾交通风险评估。将该方法应用于河北省,研究结果如下： ① 近5年来全省降雪有所下降,但长时间尺度来看,各地降雪呈波动变化;积雪深度高值区分布在张家口、承德、石家庄地区,但各年代间会有所变化;降雪次数高值区基本固定,在张家口康保、沽源、崇礼以及承德丰宁西北方向。② 暴露度级别高的路段是连接北京与上海、广州、哈尔滨等城市的高速公路,以及重要省市级联络线。③ 受致灾强度与暴露度的综合影响,河北省雪灾高风险路段集中在京港澳高速（石安G4）、京昆高速G5、京承高速G45、长深高速G25、张承高速G95等。这些路段必须做好雪灾风险防范措施。     

基于相似数据聚合与变K值KNN的短时交通流量预测

短时交通流量预测是交通控制和诱导涉及的关键技术问题,由于短时交通流量存在不确定性和时变性,其预测难度较大,是相关研究领域与工程实践中亟待解决的难题。为提高短时交通流量预测的准确性,本文设计与实现了基于相似数据聚合和变K值KNN(KNN-SDA)的短时交通流量预测算法。该算法首先采用互信息法在经过预处理的交通流量数据集提取交通流量序列最佳延迟时间信息,生成状态向量,并构建交通流量历史数据库;然后以本文所提出的相似数据聚合方法完成历史数据的聚合与清洗得到训练数据集;最后通过交叉验证确定每个时刻的最优K近邻数,完成算法实现。实验结果表明,本文提出的变K值KNN-SDA算法在保证执行效率的同时能明显提高短时交通流量的预测精度。     

基于AIS的船舶会遇局面紧迫度量化分析

近年来船舶大型化、高速化的发展以及数量的不断递增,导致船舶碰撞概率大大增加。为更好地保障船舶航行安全,提出船舶会遇局面紧迫度这一概念。该概念表征船舶在当前航行状态下由于一定范围内所有其他船舶的存在而处于的会遇局面的紧迫程度,其旨在帮助船舶驾驶员实时感知并掌握船舶在海上航行时所处会遇局面的状况,从而据此加以判断并及时采取措施规避碰撞风险。建立了船舶会遇局面紧迫度的计算模型,该模型以考虑到本船速度的动态圆形领域为空间约束条件,综合考虑其他船舶相对于本船的方位分布和距离这两个指标的影响,基于信息量量化紧迫度。利用2016年1月1日天津港AIS数据进行紧迫度的计算与分析,计算结果与实际相符,该计算模型能够准确反映船舶在航行过程中所处会遇局面的紧迫程度。利用双线性内插法建立天津港区域紧迫度二维彩色平面分布图,其表达效果优于传统热度图。     

Trajectory analysis at intersections for traffic rule identification

In this paper,we focus on trajectories at intersections regulated by various regulation types such as traffic lights,priority/yield signs,and right-of-way rules.We test some methods to detect and recognize movement patterns from GPS trajectories,in terms of their geometrical and spatio-temporal components.In particular,we first find out the main paths that vehicles follow at such locations.We then investigate the way that vehicles follow these geometric paths(how do they move along them).For these scopes,machine learning methods are used and the performance of some known methods for trajectory similarity measurement(DTW,Hausdorff,and Fréchet distance)and clustering(Affinity propagation and Agglomerative clustering)are compared based on clustering accuracy.Afterward,the movement behavior observed at six different intersections is analyzed by identifying certain movement patterns in the speed-and time-profiles of trajectories.We show that depending on the regulation type,different movement patterns are observed at intersections.This finding can be useful for intersection categorization according to traffic regulations.The practicality of automatically identifying traffic rules from GPS tracks is the enrichment of modern maps with additional navigation-related information(traffic signs,traffic lights,etc.).     

COMPUTATION OF RETURN FLOWS DUE TO NAVIGATION TRAFFICS IN RESTRICTED WATERWAYS

1 INTRODUCTION Movement of navigation traffic in restricted waterway can generate various hydrodynamic phenomena including return flow (RF), surge wave, drawdown and sediment re-suspension which are absent in open water conditions (Schofield and Martin, 1…     

基于陆路交通网的长江三角洲区域可达性评价

In a given district, the accessibility of any point should be the synthetically evaluation of the internal and external accessibilities. Using MapX component and Delphi, the author presents an information system to calculate and analyze regional accessibility according to the shortest travel time, generating thus a mark diffusing figure. Based on land traffic network, this paper assesses the present and the future regional accessibilities of sixteen major cities in the Yangtze River Delta. The result shows that the regional accessibility of the Yangtze River Delta presents a fan with Shanghai as its core. The top two most accessible cities are Shanghai and Jiaxing, and the bottom two ones are Taizhou （Zhejiang province） and Nantong With the construction of Sutong Bridge, Hangzhouwan Bridge and Zhoushan Bridge, the regional internal accessibility of all cities will be improved. Especially for Shaoxing, Ningbo and Taizhou （Jiangsu province）, the regional internal accessibility will be decreased by one hour, and other cities will be shortened by about 25 minutes averagely. As the construction of Yangkou Harbor in Nantong, the regional external accessibility of the harbor cities in Jiangsu province will be speeded up by about one hour.     

利用时空密度聚类的高速公路交通事故黑点路段鉴别

研究高速公路交通事故黑点路段的时空分布规律和关联因素,一直是交通领域的关注重点。本文针对事故统计的交通事故黑点路段鉴别方法存在地理学中的可塑面积单元(MAUP)问题,提出一种基于时空密度聚类的高速公路交通事故黑点路段鉴别方法。该方法改进了传统的DBSCAN空间聚类算法,引入一种顾及时间周期性和事故严重程度的事故时空邻近计算方法,通过密度连接规则自适应鉴别各种时空尺度的交通事故黑点路段。以2012—2016年湖南省的高速公路交通事故为例进行试验,结果表明,本文方法可有效克服不同划分单元的可塑面积单元问题,自适应鉴别不同长度的黑点路段,同时可进一步挖掘黑点路段上交通事故时空聚集模式。     

广州市城市道路交通问题及对策

通过分析广州市城市交通的现状, 认为广州市的交通问题已相当严重, 必须及早对其采取措施。针对目前的行车难、乘车难、停车难、车流量大、污染严重以及管理落后等问题, 提出了严格控制市中心区规模、征收交通影响税、大力发展城市公共交通、限制私人交通的发展、完善静态交通管理以及实现交通管理现代化等措施。