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71.
72.
Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (Xn, n 0) or (Xt, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Yn, n 0) or (Yt, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points. 相似文献
73.
Application of X-ray computed tomography for analyzing cleat spacing and cleat aperture in coal samples 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
S. Mazumder K.-H.A.A. Wolf K. Elewaut R. Ephraim 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2006,68(3-4):205-222
New techniques to determine distributions of cleat aperture, cleat orientation and cleat spacing from CT scans have been developed. For cleat orientation and spacing distributions, two different coal blocks were scanned. The CT scans have been analyzed for the three orthogonal directions. Histograms of the cleat orientations are bimodal, expressing the typical cleat texture of face and butt cleats and bedding perpendicular relaxation fractures. Deviations up to 20° from the peak values in the cleat orientation distributions were used as input for automated image analysis of cleat spacing. Distributions of the cleat spacing measurements are related to the face and butt cleat directions. The term “relevant cleat length” is introduced as a measure to extract the amount of cleat length involved with the cleat spacing measurements. The ratio ranges from 0.03 to 0.38 and expresses the difference in cleat texture in both samples. Cleat spacing versus relevant cleat length shows sample specific patterns for face cleat, butt cleat and bedding. To describe cleat aperture quantitatively, peak height and missing attenuation have been used. The image of a cleat was seen as a convolution of a rectangular fracture profile with a Gaussian point spread function. 相似文献
74.
Robert Shcherbakov Jordan Van Aalsburg John B. Rundle Donald L. Turcotte 《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):53
Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California. 相似文献
75.
Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006). 相似文献
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77.
Chironomid remains from the sediment of Lake Vuolep Njakajaure reflect limnological conditions resulting from changing climate and vegetation throughout the Holocene, but do not strictly follow accepted climate trends or the vegetation history based on regional pollen and macrofossil analyses. Chironomid community changes appear to be influenced by organic nutrient input from the surrounding catchment vegetation and lake hydrology, both of which are indirectly responding to some combination of climate change, hypolimnetic oxygen concentration, and changes in basin morphology. The chironomid-based quantitative mean July air-temperature reconstruction differs from other regional quantitative records; this discrepancy is likely related to limnological conditions particular to Lake Vuolep Njakajaure. Comparison of a northern Swedish temperature transfer function and one from western Canada reveals differences in the mean July air-temperature optima of several common taxa, suggesting that the existing conservative estimates of Holocene climate change in northern Sweden may be underestimated due to the limited temperature gradient captured by the Swedish training set. 相似文献
78.
79.
80.
Paul Augustinus Michael Reid Sofia Andersson Yanbin Deng Mark Horrocks 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(4):789-805
Frozen sediment cores from Lake Pupuke in Auckland City, New Zealand, contain a high resolution decadal to annual scale record
of changing lake paleoenvironments and geochemistry that reflects changing landuse and hydrology in the catchment over the
past c. 190 years. A reliable chronology is available from AMS 14C and 210Pb dating of the sediments, with the timing of the older part of the record supported by the first appearance of pollen of
introduced Pinus and Plantago lanceolata associated with European settlement of Auckland in the early 1840s. Diatom stratigraphy, sediment elemental and carbon isotope
geochemistry reflect changes in sediment sources and lake conditions commensurate with European development of the Lake Pupuke
catchment, in particular enhanced algal productivity controlled by the influx of nutrients after c. 1920 AD. Attempts to prevent
nuisance algal blooms in 1933, 1934 and 1939 using CuSO4 addition produced Cu spikes in the sediment that allowed confirmation of the accuracy of the 210Pb chronology. Hence, the elemental and isotopic composition of the Lake Pupuke sediments reflect the timing of significant
anthropogenic activities, rather than climatic variations, that have occurred within the watershed over the past c. 190 years.
The comparison of records of land use change in the catchment with the multi-proxy record of changes in the sediments usually
allowed unambiguous identification of the signatures of change and their causes. 相似文献