This study develops observed climate-based downscaling transfer functions that are used with general circulation model (GCM) output to assess potential global-change impacts on Upper Colorado Plateau, USA, water resources. Daily automated snow water equivalent stations are used with 700 mb atmospheric circulation to determine empirical transfer functions. Downscaling methodologies using multiple regression and neural networks are evaluated, with the neural network results explaining approximately 70%of the daily snowfall variance. The neural network-based transfer functions are used with the GENESIS GCM to simulate snowfall characteristics in both a 1xCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate. While the total precipitation simulated by the 2xCO2 analysis remains nearly the same as today, less will fall as snow; specifically, snow water equivalence shows significant reduction (except in the Green River Basin) as the snow season is reduced by 58 days on average. 相似文献
ABSTRACT. From the perspective of a human lifetime, the hazards of some nuclear wastes are permanent, so the warnings we place at contaminated nuclear sites must be permanent too. I address questions of how best to provide one hundred centuries of public warning at the first facility for permanent disposal, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. Scenarios of intrusion developed to guide the design of warning markers predicted that most of the changes in the area will be social and cultural. Because blatant and permanent markers will increase, not reduce, the probability of inadvertent intrusion, the most appropriate warning is a “landscape of illusion.” Such a landscape needs not permanent surface markers but underground warning devices beneath a soft surface marker. No warning can guarantee deterrence for 10,000 years, however. 相似文献
In Australia, colluvial soils form large terrains which are often subjected to considerable erosion and mass movement. This study presents a laboratory evaluation of the improvement effected by hydrated lime, milled blast furnace slag and fly ash on a fine grained (erosive) colluvial soil in New South Wales, Australia. Geotechnical tests were conducted to determine the compaction and consolidation characteristics and the compressive and shear strength properties of the blended and natural soil specimens. The effect of these additives on the Atterberg limits and pH levels is also investigated. As large amounts of fly ash and steel slag are produced in New South Wales, it is economically attractive to utilize these industrial by-products for ground improvement rather than employing conventional methods such as lime treatment. This study demonstrates that for the colluvial soil tested, milled slag is the most effective in terms of improving the internal friction angle of the treated soil, while lime is the most suitable for achieving the optimum compressive strength. Non-pozzolanic fly ash is found to be inappropriate as a soil improving agent. The cost of ground treatment using the various additives is also estimated and compared. 相似文献
The understanding of the thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour of a clay barrier is needed for the prediction of its final in situ properties after the hydration and thermal transient in a radioactive waste repository.
As part of the CEC 1990–1994 R&D programme on radioactive waste management and storage, the CEA (Fr), CIEMAT (Sp), ENRESA (Sp), SCK · CEN (B), UPC (Sp) and UWCC (UK) have carried out a joint project on unsaturated clay behaviour (Volckaert et al., 1996). The aim of the study is to analyse and model the behaviour of a clay-based engineered barrier during its hydration phase under real repository conditions. The hydro-mechanical and thermo-hydraulic models developed in this project have been coupled to describe stress/strain behaviour, moisture migration and heat transfer. A thermo-hydraulic model has also been coupled to a geochemical code to describe the migration and formation of chemical species.
In this project, suction-controlled experiments have been performed on Boom clay (B), FoCa clay (Fr) and Almeria bentonite (Sp). The aim of these experiments is to test the validity of the interpretive model developed by Alonso and Gens (Alonso et al., 1990), and to build a database of unsaturated clay thermo-hydro-mechanical parameters. Such a database can then be used for validation exercises in which in situ experiments are simulated.
The Boom clay is a moderately swelling clay of Rupellian age. It is studied at the SCK · CEN in Belgium as a potential host rock for a radioactive waste repository. In this paper, suction-controlled experiments carried out on Boom clay by SCK · CEN are described. SCK · CEN has performed experiments to measure the relation between suction, water content and temperature and the relation between suction, stress and deformation. The applied suction-control techniques and experimental setups are detailed. The results of these experiments are discussed in the perspective of the model of Alonso and Gens. The influence of temperature on water uptake was rather small. The measured swelling-collapse behaviour can be explained by the Alonso and Gens model. 相似文献
The manifold influences of tourism on coastal areas are analysed from three different angles: (1) The development of seaside tourism including the changes of socio-economic and settlement patterns; (2) its cultural impact on the local population; (3) its environmental aspects. Point 1 is described with the help of a model showing four peripheries in space and time: (I) the North Sea and Baltic coasts since the 18th century; (II) Southern Europe during the 19th century; (III) the North African shores around 1950; (IV) the tropical oceans after 1965. Within every periphery, several phases (pioneer, domestic, international) can be distinguished according to the origin of tourists, the investment, the know-how etc. While the beginning of every phase is dominated from abroad, later-on national actors play an increasing role. This applies also to point 2, which refers mainly to developing countries. As for point 3, mass tourism may result detrimentally on water supply, sensitive coastal landscapes, socio-cultural identity etc. Among the questions to be raised are: How far are industrial societies responsible for any negative impacts of tourism, and what are the chances for, and a general consciousness on, a sustainable tourism development? 相似文献