Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.     

从景观生态学构建城市旅游开发与规划的操作模式

本文尝试建立一个关于旅游开发与规划的应用理论模式,以兼顾理论的抽象性和操作性。模式的构建依据地理空间分析方法,同时借用景观生态学斑、廊、基的概念。文中详细论述了该斑廊基网络结构操作模式的基本特点、变换空间分析方法等运行机制,并以不同城市旅游规划、设计实例说明三大操作块的功能和操作意义。     

旅游区位与市场拓展关系的研究——以西安市日本入境市场为例

旅游区位的理论已被广泛地运用到旅游空间的优化和布局中.就旅游区位的5个因子方面分析了日本客源市场的现状、发展前景;并根据对西安入境外国人进行的1008份市场调查问卷、通过数理方法分析比较取得的结果,探讨了以增长极、中心地、点-轴、带状、网状等多层次、多边的西安旅游市场开发的空间布局和旅游线路优化组合的模式.最后就开发西安的日本市场,提出了相应的对策和建议,对细分旅游市场和有针对性的市场促销有一定的参考价值.     

近年国外传统村镇旅游研究进展及启示

近年来,随着传统村镇旅游的日益兴起,有关传统村镇的旅游学研究日益受到学术界重视和关注.总结了国内外关于传统村镇的旅游学研究进展,指出国外研究成果主要集中在传统村镇旅游发展影响研究、传统村镇旅游发展与文化原真性保持之间的关系、传统村镇旅游可持续发展等方面.国内研究与之相比,在研究内容、方法、领域、深度等方面仍有很大差距,有待进一步扩展和深入.今后应注意以下几方面问题:研究内容流于表层,应加强研究领域的延伸和深度的扩展;研究方法、手段较为单一,研究理论和方法焏待提高;理论研究滞后于旅游发展实践的现状焏待改善.     

关于迪庆香格里拉发展旅游产业集群的探讨

当代的国际经济竞争是产业集群的竞争。产业集群现象的大量出现以及成功的发展实践，为欠发达地区实现跨越式发展提供了一条新的发展之路。旅游业的综合性显示着产业集群的优势条件，旅游产业集群化发展是区域旅游业竞争力提升的有效模式。近几年来中国许多地方的旅游业呈现出产业集群化发展趋势，展现了旅游产业集群在区域竞争中的优势。通过运用波特的钻石体系分析了在迪庆香格里拉这样的欠发达地区发展旅游产业集群的有利条件以及面临的问题，并由此提出了香格里拉发展旅游产业集群的对策。     

Indian Ocean tsunamis: environmental and socio-economic impacts in Langkawi, Malaysia

We report the results of a study of the physical characteristics and socio-economic impacts of the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the tourist island of Langkawi, Malaysia. In comparison with many other locations struck by the tsunami, the immediate physical and socio-economic impacts in Langkawi were relatively minor. A detailed survey of the watermark and ground elevations was undertaken in the worst affected area between Sungei Kuala Teriang and Sungei Kuala Melaka. Here, the tsunami reached a maximum elevation of 4.29 m as it crossed the coast, with a maximum flow depth of 2.0 m and a very consistent run-up elevation relative to mean sea level of 300 ± 10 cm. The tsunami inundated inshore areas for 300 m and penetrated inland along creeks for 500–1000 m. Structural damage to buildings was confined to within 50–150 m of the shoreline where about 10% of the houses were completely destroyed and 60–70% suffered significant structural damage. Damage was particularly severe in areas where there was no engineered coastal protection, but while coastal revetments did provide enhanced protection for houses at the waterfront, the coastline in the study area appeared to be more heavily impacted than elsewhere in Langkawi because wave energy was focused on the area by offshore breakwaters built to protect the Langkawi port and airport. Emergency response after the tsunami was rapid and efficient but would have been improved if the local police station had not been rendered inoperative by the first wave, and if a mechanism had been in place to ensure that informal advance warnings transmitted between Phuket (Thailand), Langkawi and Penang (Malaysia) by tourist operators could have been more widely disseminated.     

福建开展森林人家休闲健康游的探讨

通过对国内开展乡村旅游现状的调研,分析了目前福建开展乡村旅游存在的问题,借鉴川、渝、浙等地乡村旅游"农家乐"的成功经验,结合福建依托森林资源特色开展森林人家的主要措施,对如何进一步提升森林人家品牌进行了探讨.     

苏州市乡村旅游发展的竞合分析

由地缘关系、区域联系、区域战略、旅游者行为、乡村旅游地属性等方面确定苏州市主要竞合对象.在分析环太湖旅游圈、长三角旅游圈沿沪线乡村旅游发展的竞合关系后,提出苏州乡村旅游发展应致力于打造"文化太湖"、借助古村落发展农俗文化、重视主要客源地、建立环太湖乡村旅游联盟、建立乡村旅游共生机制等.