不同混合层深度算法的全球适用性对比分析

混合层深度是研究海洋上层动力过程及海气相互作用的一个至关重要的物理量,准确估算混合层深度对上层海洋动力学和热力学的深入研究具有重要的科学意义。本文基于Argo实时观测剖面数据,分海域、分季节对比分析了目前常用的几种混合层深度算法的异同与优缺点。结果表明,理论上最大角度法的精确度最高,曲率法其次,然后是阈值法和最优线性拟合法。最大角度法和曲率法的结果比较接近,实测数据表明曲率法的时空适用性更广。阈值法、最优线性拟合法分别受梯度阈值和密度（或温度）梯度变化的制约,其计算的混合层深度相对较浅。各种算法的差异性随着季节跃层的增强而逐渐减小,且北半球的差异小于南半球。     

A rational method for development of limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on shear wave velocity measurements

This papers presents a new approach for developing a limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on field performance data. As an example to illustrate the new approach, a database that consists of, among many other features, in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction in historic earthquakes is analysed. This database is first used to train a neural network to classify liquefaction/non‐liquefaction based on soil resistance parameters and load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish a limit state, a multiple dimension boundary that separates ‘zone’ of liquefaction from ‘zone’ of non‐liquefaction. The limit state yields cyclic resistance ratio for a given set of soil resistance parameters. Examination of all cases in the database show that the developed limit state has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the occurrence of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction. The developed neural network model can accurately predict the cyclic resistance ratio of soils. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

深井电极交叉供电对自然电位的影响

通过实验论证平凉地震台深井电阻率观测自然电位畸变由电极交叉供电造成,讨论分析不同电极供电对自然电位的影响。结果表明:对测量极供电,会影响自然电位,不会影响电阻率测值;单极供电对自然电位的影响表现为阶跃突跳,并以指数形态恢复,恢复时间约10 h,干扰峰值与供电电流、供电时间等有关;对观测数据进行校正,取得较好效果。     

Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China, 1986–2013

Climate and land‐use changes could strongly affect wind erosion and in turn cause a series of environmental problems. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess potential wind erosion rate (PWER) response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River (NIMRYR), China. The watershed of NIMRYR suffers from serious wind erosion hazards, and over recent decades, wind erosion intensity and distribution has changed, following climate and land‐use changes. To understand these processes in the NIMRYR watershed, the Integrated Wind Erosion Modelling System (IWEMS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) were used to calculate the PWER under different climate conditions and land‐use scenarios, and to assess the influences of climate and land‐use changes on the PWER. The results show the PWER in the whole watershed had a significant declining trend from 1986 to 2013. The results of the relationship among PWER, climate change, and land‐use changes showed that climate change was the dominant control on the PWER change in this watershed. Compared to the period 1986–1995, the average PWER decreased 23.32% and 64.98% as a result of climate change in the periods 1996–2005 and 2006–2013, respectively. In contrast with climate change, the effects of land‐use changes on the average PWER were much lower, and represented a change in PWER of less than 3.3% across the whole watershed. The study method we used could provide some valuable reference for wind erosion modelling, and the research results should help climate and land‐use researchers to develop strategies to reduce wind erosion. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial variations of potential evaporation and the driving mechanism over Tibet during 1961–2001

Potential evaporation (PE) is the basic component of the global hydrological cycle and energy balance. This study detected the temporal and spatial variations of PE and related driving factors in Tibet, China, for the period 1961–2001, based on observed data recorded at 22 meteorological stations. The results showed that (1) Tibet experienced a statistically significant decrease of PE between 1961 and 2001, which started mainly in the 1980s, along with accelerated warming; (2) the mean annual PE in Tibet showed an east–west increasing trend, and the annual PE at most stations presented decreasing trends; (3) an inverse correlation of mean annual PE with elevation was detected (low–high decreasing trend), and the statistical equations to estimate PE were established based on longitude, latitude and elevation; and (4) PE in Tibet can be well expressed by related meteorological variables, with vapour pressure deficit the dominant factor in determining PE.

EDITOR Z. W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

基于LBS和深度学习的旅游景区客流量的高时频预测

为实现精准的旅游景区客流量的高时频预测,本研究构建了一套基于LBS和深度学习模型的预测方法。此方法可通过对LBS数据的转换实现预测的空间范围与时频控制,并通过方法的核心模型——基于双向循环神经网络和GRU算法构建的深度双向GRU(DBi-GRU)模型完成预测。为检验方法的有效性,研究以深圳大梅沙海滨公园为例对方法进行实验测试。实验使用拟合曲线、误差指标及DM检验3种方法评估DBi-GRU模型的预测效果。此外,实验还设置了其他五种深度学习模型作为DBi-GRU的对照模型,测试基于不同深度学习算法的模型之间的预测水平差异。实验结果表明:(1)本研究提出的DBi-GRU模型在景区客流量高时频预测中具有理想的预测效果,在高峰时段的客流量预测方面也具有较高准确性,预测效果明显优于其他深度学习模型;(2)基于双向循环网络的模型的效果普遍优于基于常规循环网络的模型。尤其是基于双向LSTM算法的模型,虽然预测的准确度略逊色于DBi-GRU模型,但在模型性能上与其的差异并不显著;(3)在相同网络参数下,GRU算法较前人采用的LSTM和RNN算法有着更高的预测准确性。本研究为客流量预测领域的研究提供了一种...     

旅游活动对鼎湖山生物圈保护区植被的影响

以鼎湖山生物圈保护区为例,采用敏感水平、群落景观重要值、物种多样性信息指数、阴生种比例、伴人植物比例和旅游影响系数等指标,对旅游活动与植被环境的关系和景区管理水平进行了分析评价。研究表明:(1)旅游影响系数与植被环境质量评价指标之间、植被环境质量各项评价指标之间、旅游影响系数内部各因子之间均存在不同程度的相关性。敏感水平值越大,群落景观重要值、阴生种比例值越小,物种多样性信息指数、伴人植物比例、旅游影响系数值越大;旅游影响系数越大,敏感水平、物种多样性信息指数、伴人植物比例越大,群落景观重要值、阴生种比例越小;旅游影响系数与其各影响因子均呈正相关,即旅游影响系数越大,枯枝落叶层越薄、草本层盖度越小、幼苗量越小、折枝数量越多、垃圾量越大。研究结果与鼎湖山旅游发展的实践基本相符,客观上揭示了旅游活动对植被影响的规律和特点;(2)根据旅游影响系数分级标准,鼎湖山景区质量管理水平总体可定为中上水平,但个别地段存在环境隐患,有必要进一步提高管理水平。     

甘肃省地热资源赋存特征及潜力评价

甘肃省地热资源丰富,其地热资源的开发利用具有较大的潜力。本文介绍了甘肃省地热资源分布概况,结合地区构造、地热水化学特征、地热资源量及开发利用现状探讨了甘肃隆起山地对流型与沉积盆地传导型地热资源的赋存特征,并对两种类型地热资源潜力进行了分析评价。结果表明,沉积盆地地热资源分布于河西、陇西及陇东盆地等,热储类型为裂隙型和孔隙型,热储层自元古宙至新生代均有发育,岩性以砂岩为主;隆起山地型地热资源主要分布于祁连山和西秦岭造山带,热储类型为断裂破碎带,岩性以花岗岩为主;通过潜力计算得知,全省热量开采系数≥0.4的仅占29.17%,表明目前甘肃地热资源开采程度较低,开采潜力较大。     

吉林省通化县迎门岔一带白垩系下统火山碎屑岩稀有稀土矿找矿前景浅析

通化县迎门岔一带1∶20万水系沉积物测量,圈定出“通通-84-HS-10”号异常,异常区内出露的岩性主要为白垩系下统林子头组灰绿色、紫色流纹质凝灰岩、角砾凝灰岩、流纹质晶屑岩屑凝灰岩、灰紫色流纹岩、安山岩等火山碎屑岩。在1∶20万异常区内开展了1∶5万水系沉积物测量工作,圈出重点找矿前景区,并在该区内开展1∶1万土壤测量、高精磁测等工作,通过槽探工程验证,发现含铌钽矿化蚀变带,显示出该地区具有较好的稀有稀土矿找矿前景。