模糊ISODATA聚类算法在声速剖面自动分类中的应用

依据中国海浅海区30′按月历史统计声速剖面数据,通过归一化处理和Akima差值采样得到梯度剖面,建立起各方区按月归化后的声速剖面分层梯度样本集,并采用模糊ISODATA聚类算法对声速剖面进行聚类分析.通过对分类结果和类内总方差和的分析表明,聚类参数m值在1.1～2.1之间,并以最远邻系统聚类法结果为初始类中心的模糊分类效果较好.应用该方法对海洋中的声速剖面进行自动分类和区划对海洋环境的战术应用意义重大.     

基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型

作者针对远洋渔场渔情预报精度偏低的问题,提出一种基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型。该模型利用空间自回归对收集到的渔业历史数据进行预处理,然后通过空间聚类将所有数据样本根据地理位置分划成若干个区域,最后研究每个区域中环境数据与渔获数据之间的数学关系,各自建立栖息地适宜性指数模型(Habitat Suitability Index,HSI),并以印度洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)为例进行验证。结果表明,本模型的均方差为0.1742,与传统线性回归方法的均方差0.2363相比,能更好地表达海洋环境数据与渔获量之间的关系,预测精度显著提高。     

基于高斯混合模型的海冰图像非监督聚类分割研究

为了利用海冰图像识别技术获取海冰冰况信息, 探索了利用高斯混合模型进行海冰图像分割的技术途径, 描述了具体算法, 并利用高斯混合模型的最大期望值（EM）算法以及最小描述长度（MDL）准则对渤海海冰图像进行目标提取。研究结果表明, 该方法可以很好地实现海冰信息的有效提取和海冰图像的有效分割, 从而证明了建立在图像分割技术...     

山西省大同市农业生态气候适宜度评价

文章选择黄土高原边缘,颇具生态地理意义的山西省大同市及所辖7个县区为研究对象,依据该区域1971~2000年的长期实测气象资料,在借鉴前人建立的农业生态气候适宜度动态模型的基础上,经过多次作物实验,尝试性拟合出符合区域特点的典型气候要素适宜度隶属函数;分区计算了农业生态资源指数 、效能指数及利用系数,总结出区域气温及降水量适宜度曲线大致呈 "∩"型分布规律,峰值出现在每年的6~8月之间;日照百分率适宜度曲线呈 "∪"型分布规律,谷值出现在每年的7月。在SPSS统计软件环境中,以各区域累年逐月平均效能指数为分类实体,进行模糊动态聚类,提出研究区农业生态气候适宜度的三种等级模式。     

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.     

改进的最小生成树自适应空间点聚类算法

针对传统的最小生成树聚类算法存在使用全局不变阈值确定噪声边,聚类需要用户根据经验确定初始化聚类参数,如“边权值倍数容差”,“边长变化因子”等,聚类不能发现局部噪声的问题,本文提出了一种改进的最小生成树自适应空间点聚类算法。该算法在无需用户输入参数的前提下,克服主观因素的影响,根据最小生成树边长的数理统计特征定义裁剪因子。算法首先从宏观层面对最小生成树进行首轮删枝操作,消除全局环境下的噪声边,进而根据各子树的边长统计情况,自适应设定局部裁剪因子,进行第二轮删枝操作,消除局部环境下的噪声边。最后,采用1个模拟数据和1个实际应用验证算法的有效性,结果表明本文提出的改进算法在无需人为提供经验参数的环境下能够发现任意形状、不同密度的簇,能够准确的识别出空间点中的噪声数据,从而能够实现空间点数据背后隐藏信息的自动挖掘。     

台湾以东黑潮路径识别与变化规律

为研究对中国台湾以东海域黑潮路径及其变化,本文基于法国空间局AVISO中心提供的1993—2015年的卫星遥感海表流场逐日资料,对121°—125°E,22.4°—25°N海域黑潮路径进行了逐日识别,得到了共计23年累计8400天的台湾以东黑潮流轴的逐日路径,并研究其在不同纬度的流轴位置及其对应的表面黑潮流量的时空变化规律。主要结论如下:(1)采用模糊C-均值聚类法对台湾以东黑潮流轴路径进行聚类分析,发现台湾以东黑潮流轴在24°N以南出现明显摆动,形成正常和偏东两种路径;黑潮流轴存在明显的时间变化,流轴偏东现象年平均大约出现25次,大致每隔3年出现一次偏东较少的现象,各月流轴偏东次数以4、5月最少,10月至次年3月较多;(2)台湾以东黑潮表面流量大小在6.2—8.3×104m2/s之间;总体上来说,纬度越高流量越大,在23.5°N左右范围内存在一个流量低值中心;在24.3°N以北流量总体较大,且增长趋势稳定,同时表面流量大小具有较强的季节和年际变化特征。     

基于DTW与K-means算法的河北场雨及雨型分区特征研究

深入挖掘气象站点的观测降雨数据,研究区域降雨的雨型规律,对于洪涝灾害预警和减灾措施制订有重要意义.本文基于河北省2005-2017年3189个站点逐小时降雨观测数据,进行"场雨"的划定,进而提取历史上各场雨的累积雨量、时长指标.采用数据挖掘技术中的DTW相似性算法进行场雨雨型的自动归类,将场雨分成Ⅰ-Ⅶ共7种雨型,包括...     

The influence of dam and lakes on the Yangtze River streamflow: long‐range correlation and complexity analyses

Employing long‐range correlation, complexity features and clustering, this study investigated the influence of dam and lake‐river systems on the Yangtze River flow. The impact of the Gezhouba Dam and the lake systems on streamflow was evaluated by analysing daily streamflow records at the Cuntan, the Yichang and the Datong station. Results indicated no evident influence of the Gezhouba Dam on streamflow changes. Distinct differences in scaling behaviour, long‐range correlation and clustering of streamflow at the Datong station when compared with those at the Cuntan and Yichang stations undoubtedly showed the influence of water storage and the buffering effect of the lake systems between the Datong station and other two hydrological stations on streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin. Decreased regularity, enhanced long‐range correlation and increased clustering of streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin due to the effect of water storage of the lake systems were corroborated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

临汾盆地现代地震活动特征及其与深部构造关系初探

本文分析了临汾盆地现代地震在时序分布上的阶段性，平面分布上的丛集性，及其震源三维分布与分布地深部构造的关系，指出盆地北部的临汾－洪洞凹陷为该区未来若干年内的主要发震区，而２０－３０ｋｍ深度则是主要发震层次。