GEOMORPHIC THRESHOLDS FOR CHANNEL EVOLUTION IN THE LOWER YELLOW RIVER

Channel evolution refers to boundary changes of rivers affected by fluvial actions. This paper provides an analysis of the development and formation of stream patterns in the lower Yellow River and presents intensive studies of several critical problems relating to channel evolution, including thresholds of channel gradient and longitudinal profile adjustment, channel surface morphology, response of channel pattern to boundary conditions, critical discrimination of cross sections and the discrimination of channel pattern changes using hydrologic parameters.     

The relative contributions of physical and microbiological factors to cohesive sediment stability

The stabilising effects of natural benthic diatom and bacterial assemblages on cohesive sediments were compared with those caused by physico-chemical binding alone. Cohesive sediment beds were reconstructed in 4 annular laboratory miniflumes, using sediment collected at 5–6 m water depth from a local fjord. The sediment was left to stabilise (consolidate) for 1, 2, 5 and 10 days, before being fully resuspended in a series of erosion experiments. The flumes were aerated and subjected to different light/dark conditions; antibiotics were used to isolate diatom from bacteria effects. During consolidation, a constant current velocity was maintained, at a speed well below erosion threshold.     

Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA

To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics.     

INCORPORATING INHERENT MAP ERROR INTO FLOOD-HAZARD ANALYSIS

Maps are an important source of data for planning and land use analysis of flood-prone areas. Map users with inadequate training are not aware that map errors can lead to ineffective decisions. Although inherent errors introduced by transformation, map construction, and symbolization are never identified on maps, they limit the effectiveness of maps as sources of data. Additional vertical and horizontal errors can be introduced during map use. Knowledge of the sources and amounts of such errors should result in more effective decisions regarding flood hazards.     

辽河流域太子河大型底栖动物群落与水环境因子关联性的量化分析

大型底栖动物群落结构与水环境因子具有较强的响应关系,为了量化分析大型底栖动物群落水环境因子适宜状态以及响应关系,在太子河进行3次流域水生态调查,共获得136个站位的生态数据,通过筛选得到水环境驱动因子,并利用加权平均回归分析和临界点指示类群分析的方法,探究大型底栖动物群落物种、不同多样性水平以及功能摄食类群水环境驱动因子的最适值和阈值.结果显示,显著影响大型底栖动物群落结构的水环境因子是溶解氧、电导率、总氮.大型底栖动物敏感种的溶解氧最适值较高,耐污种较低;敏感种的电导率和总氮最适值较低,耐污种较高;大型底栖动物群落多样性水平Shannon-Wiener指数(0-1]区间的溶解氧最适值最低,(3-4]区间的溶解氧最适值最高,各Shannon-Wiener指数区间电导率和总氮最适值排序为:(0-1]区间(1-2]区间(2-3]区间(3-4]区间;在5个功能摄食类群中溶解氧最适值最高和最低分别为撕食者和直接收集者,电导率最适值最高和最低分别为直接收集者和过滤收集者,总氮最适值最高和最低分别为直接收集者和刮食者.大型底栖动物敏感种的溶解氧阈值高于耐污种类群与其他物种,而敏感种的电导率和总氮阈值低于耐污种和其他物种;大型底栖动物群落多样性水平Shannon-Wiener指数(0-1]区间与溶解氧阈值呈负响应关系,而与电导率和总氮阈值呈正响应关系,(1-2]区间、(2-3]区间、(3-4]区间与溶解氧阈值呈正响应关系,而与电导率和总氮阈值呈负响应关系;溶解氧指示的大型底栖动物功能摄食类群为撕食者,且呈正响应关系,而电导率和总氮指示的功能摄食类群都包括过滤收集者、刮食者、撕食者,且呈负响应关系,其中刮食者的电导率和总氮阈值均最高.研究表明,通过分析大型底栖动物群落水环境因子的最适值和阈值,能以数据的形式量化反映大型底栖动物群落与河流水环境因子的响应关系,对河流生态环境的保护和修复具有重要的指导意义.     

Biological Impact of Elevated Ocean CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Concentrations: Lessons from Animal Physiology and Earth History

CO₂ currently accumulating in the atmosphere permeates into ocean surface layers, where it may impact on marine animals in addition to effects caused by global warming. At the same time, several countries are developing scenarios for the disposal of anthropogenic CO₂ in the worlds' oceans, especially the deep sea. Elevated CO₂ partial pressures (hypercapnia) will affect the physiology of water breathing animals, a phenomenon also considered in recent discussions of a role for CO₂ in mass extinction events in earth history. Our current knowledge of CO₂ effects ranges from effects of hypercapnia on acid-base regulation, calcification and growth to influences on respiration, energy turnover and mode of metabolism. The present paper attempts to evaluate critical processes and the thresholds beyond which these effects may become detrimental. CO₂ elicits acidosis not only in the water, but also in tissues and body fluids. Despite compensatory accumulation of bicarbonate, acid-base parameters (pH, bicarbonate and CO₂ levels) and ion levels reach new steady-state values, with specific, long-term effects on metabolic functions. Even though such processes may not be detrimental, they are expected to affect long-term growth and reproduction and may thus be harmful at population and species levels. Sensitivity is maximal in ommastrephid squid, which are characterized by a high metabolic rate and extremely pH-sensitive blood oxygen transport. Acute sensitivity is interpreted to be less in fish with intracellular blood pigments and higher capacities to compensate for CO₂ induced acid-base disturbances than invertebrates. Virtually nothing is known about the degree to which deep-sea fishes are affected by short or long term hypercapnia. Sensitivity to CO₂ is hypothesized to be related to the organizational level of an animal, its energy requirements and mode of life. Long-term effects expected at population and species levels are in line with recent considerations of a detrimental role of CO₂ during mass extinctions in the earth's history. Future research is needed in this area to evaluate critical effects of the various CO₂ disposal scenarios. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨

气象灾害损失与风险大小取决于气象致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性、自然与人为防控在孕灾环境中时空配置格局及交互作用.但对于一定区域与时段而言,后两个因素相对稳定,气象致灾因子多变,其不同时空分布格局很大程度上决定了灾害的地域性及时间变化特征.对致灾因子危险性予以准确诊断是客观评估气象灾害损失与风险大小的基本前提.为此,文中提出了气象致灾因子危险度定义及点面相结合的诊断模型:(1)将危险度定义为事件致灾因子量值与风险阈值场中各级风险水平阈值之间的接近程度;(2)采用随机变量概率分布模型估计各地各种特定概率下的气象事件致灾因子量级,构建气象致灾因子风险阈值场;(3)联合空间相似和距离参量构建危险度诊断模型,以刻划事件致灾因子与各级风险阈值分布形态相似性及数值差异大小,据此计算事件致灾因子与风险阈值场中各级风险阈值的接近程度,以接近度最大为原则确定某过程致灾因子总体危险性水平等级.然后以上海地区风致灾因子危险性诊断为例,计算了上海各地不同风险水平下年最大风速阈值以及各地各级年最大风速的风险水平,构建了上海地区年最大风速的风险阈值场,结果表明:上海沿海地区的南汇、崇明、金山等地为年最大风速高值区,也是一定风险水平下的最大风速高值区,同时又是8级以上强风频发区及高危险区;相对地,本市较内陆的区域,则是年最大风速低值区,也是一定风险水平下的最大风速低值区,同时又是8级以上强风稀遇区及低危险区;一定重现期下最大风速阈值地区分布也有类似规律.最后,应用该模型对影响上海地区热带气旋及其他天气过程共30余个例作出风危险度诊断,结果表明,以1977年9月11日的7708号热带气旋风危险度最高,总体上与风险水平为8年一遇的年最大风速阈值最为接近;1986年8月27日8615号热带气旋与1983年6月3日其他天气过程个例风危险度为第2,总体接近于7年一遇年最大风速阈值;8114号与9711号热带气旋风危险度则与4年一遇年最大风速阈值最为接近;7413号、7503号、7909号、8506号热带气旋的风危险度接近3年一遇年最大风速阈值;而0509号热带气旋"麦莎"、0515号热带气旋"卡努"风危险度总体上接近于2年一遇的年最大风速阈值.其他热带气旋影响个例,其风危险度多数与重现期约2年一遇的年最大风速阈值接近.实际应用结果表明,所提出的这一点面结合的危险度的诊断方法,能较客观定量地评定气象致灾因子的危险性程度.     

Hydrological thresholds of soil surface properties identified using conditional inference tree analysis

There has been limited success in determining critical thresholds of ground cover or soil characteristics that relate to significant changes in runoff or sediment production at the microscale (<1 m²), particularly in semi‐arid systems where management of ground cover is critical. Despite this lack of quantified thresholds, there is an increasing research focus on the two‐phase mosaic of vegetation patches and inter‐patches in semi‐arid systems. In order to quantify ground cover and soil related thresholds for runoff and sediment production, we used a data mining technique known as conditional inference tree analysis to determine statistically significant values of a range of measured variables that predicted average runoff, peak runoff, sediment concentration and sediment production at the microscale. On Chromic Luvisols across a range of vegetation states in semi‐arid south‐eastern Australia, large changes in runoff and sediment production were related to a hierarchy of different variables and thresholds, but the percentage of bare soil played a primary role in predicting runoff and sediment production in most instances. The identified thresholds match well with previous thresholds found in semi‐arid and temperate regions (including the approximate values of 30%, 50% and 70% total ground cover). The analysis presented here identified the critical role of soil surface roughness, particularly where total ground cover is sparse. The analysis also provided evidence that a two‐phase mosaic of patches and inter‐patches identified via rapid visual assessment could be further delineated into distinct groups of hydrological response, or a multi‐phase rather than a two‐phase system. The approach used here may aid in assessing scale‐dependent responses and address data non‐linearity in studies of semi‐arid hydrology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics, controlling factors and importance of deep gullies under cropland on loess-derived soils

Several studies describe the formation and importance of shallow ephemeral gullies under cropland (depth<0.8 m). Some of these gullies may develop into channels with a depth of more than 0.8 m (up to 4 m). Despite their spectacular nature, these deep gullies have not yet been studied in detail. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to analyze the characteristics and the controlling factors of these deep gullies, as well as their importance in terms of sediment production.Comparison of a dataset with 28 deep gullies, formed in the period 1985–2003 and 123 shallow ephemeral gullies formed in the period 1994–1999 in central Belgium indicates that the deep gullies have clearly different morphological characteristics compared to shallow ephemeral gullies. Several factors were analyzed to understand the formation of deep gullies. Plotting runoff contributing area versus slope of the soil surface at the gully head indicates that the topographical threshold for deep gully formation is significantly larger compared to ephemeral gully formation. Deep gullies form on short, steep valley sides and their position is strongly affected by the presence of linear landscape elements. All deep gullies incised on landscape positions with a very erodible soil horizon at shallow depth. Analysis of causative rainfall showed no significant differences in incision thresholds between rills and shallow ephemeral gullies on the one hand and deep gullies on the other hand.The relation between area-specific sediment yield in central Belgium and drainage area, indicates that the development of deep gullies contributes significantly to the sediment output of small rural catchments and causes peaks in the mean area-specific sediment yield that are up to a factor of three higher compared with catchments where shallow ephemeral gullying occurs.     

Contemporary management issues confronting fisheries science

Stock collapses have occurred worldwide. The most frequently cited cause is over-fishing, suggesting that fisheries management has been ineffective in controlling exploitation rates. The progression of a fishery from an over-exploited to a collapsed state involves impairment of the reproductive capacity of the target species, i.e. recruitment over-fishing. In many cases, this occurs by reduction of the spawning stock biomass (SSB) through the systematic elimination of spawning components within a stock complex. While operational definitions of minimum levels of SSB have been developed, they have seldom been applied and never adopted in a Canadian groundfish management context. The answer to the question of how much is enough to perpetuate a stock under exploitation has been illusive. Serebryakov [J. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 47 (1990) 267] has advocated definition of critical levels of SSB based on survival rates (R/SSB). We review his method and discuss the utility of the approach. An alternative approach to the problem of estimating minimum SSB is through a fundamental revision of the traditional stock and recruitment relationship. Explicit theoretical SSB thresholds below which reproduction/recruitment is severely impaired based upon density-dependent mating success (or Allee effects) is considered a superior approach to the question of how much is enough because of its ecological grounding. However, the successful application of this approach will require re-definition of the space/time scales of the management unit. Finally, support is growing for the establishment of closed areas or “no-take zones” as an alternative approach to managing the problems of fishing a stock complex by enabling sub-populations to escape fishing. While the expected benefits of areas protected from fishing are numerous, clear demonstrations of benefits of such areas in marine temperate ecosystems are lacking. In fact, unintended negative consequences may result from such actions.