Hydrological response types for gypsiferous soils in a semi‐arid region during nine years of continuous record

A 9‐year rainfall, sediment yield and runoff generation record from four experimental plots has been studied. Plots are located in the central Ebro Basin over smooth hillslope developed over gypsum and marl Miocene deposits. The hydrological response of these areas is a function of soil properties, final infiltration capacity and permeability of soils and rainfall characteristics, such as intensity and amount. Results show that there are two types of hydrological response in these areas. First is Hortonian like, which takes place during wet periods and it is responsible for the main part of total sediment yield. Second is like saturation excess overland flow, and it appears after long period. The presence of either type is controlled by a double threshold, starting from when runoff is significant. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A STUDY ON THRESHOLDS IN THE CHANGE OF ALLUVIAL FAN AND DELTA OF THE HUANGHE RIVER, CHINA

In the river systems, the environmental change always undergoes a process from quantitative to qualitative change. The upper limit of the qualitative change is called threshold. When the process reaches or goes beyond the limit, the original event series will be replaced by the other event series. Investigations show that the evolution of the Huanghe River alluvial fan and delta has also under gone a process from quantitative to qualitative change. The geometric forms in each process are roughly the same. This threshold of the geometric forms not only provides us a quantitative index for plotting the periodicity of the alluvial fan and delta, but also is of importance for estimation of the trend of natural environmental change.It is shown that there are three periodic alluvial fans of the Huanghe River since the middle Holocene and four periodic delta since 1855 A.D., the thresholds of their geometric forms are from 0.93 to 0.94 and from 1.2 to 1.21 respectively.The changing trend in the past and the na     

A multi-sensor evaluation of precipitation uncertainty for landslide-triggering storm events

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall-triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select from a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide-triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity–duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of 177 reported landslides across the continental United States and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296 mm with an average range of 51 mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8 mm/h and as much as 57 mm/h. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity–duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.     

Thresholds for morphological changes on an exposed sandy beach as a function of wave height

A sandy beach in the south of Portugal (Faro beach, Ria Formosa) was surveyed from the dune crest seaward to 15 m depth 20 times over a period of 26 months. Wave time‐series between surveys were analysed to obtain relationships between wave height and vertical profile variations and to define wave thresholds for important morphological changes. Results show that the active zone of the profile lies between 5 m above and 10·4 m below mean sea level, and that there are clear cross‐shore differences in the vertical variability of the profile. Based on the pattern of vertical variability, the profile was divided into four cross‐shore sectors: A (berm), 20–80 m from the profile origin; B (sub‐tidal terrace), 80–170 m; C (long‐shore bar), 170–360 m; and D, 360–700 m. The relationship between the modulus of the maximum vertical change in each sector and the 99th percentile of significant wave height between surveys was always significant. Calculated thresholds for significant wave height generating important morphological changes were 2·3 m in sector A, 3·2 m in sectors B and C, and 4·1 m in sector D. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic controls on wind erosion and dust generation on west‐central Free State agricultural land,South Africa

The west‐central part of South Africa's Free State Province falls within the transition zone between South Africa's sub‐humid, temperate grasslands to the east, and the semi‐arid Karoo and arid Kalahari to the south and west, respectively. The area is characterized by low rainfall (typically 500 mm or less) with high variability, but environmental conditions allow widespread dryland commercial agriculture (maize, sunflowers and stock farming). However, human activity promotes wind erosion and the area is susceptible to dust emissions. This study is the first to quantify the degree of wind erosion on the agricultural soils in the region under prevailing winter to spring climatic conditions and land management practices. Using arrays of cup anemometers, dust deposition traps and saltation impact sensors (Safires), measurements were made of the key erosivity and erodibility drivers that control the degree of wind erosion. Results demonstrate that significant quantities of dust are mobilized, particularly during the months of September and October. Thresholds of wind erosion are shown to respond particularly closely to changes in surface and aerodynamic roughness (z₀) with the amount of collected dust correlating well with measures of wind erosivity that weight the impact of higher wind speeds. Given the importance of surface roughness in controlling erosion thresholds, results show that the opportunity exists for well designed farming practices to control wind erosion. However, it is likely that climatically driven environmental change will impact on some of the identified controls on erosion (wind power, moisture availability) with the result that the wind erosion hazard is likely to increase within this marginal environment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Thresholds and Fine-Scale Processes in Driving Upper Treeline Dynamics in the Bighorn Mountains,Wyoming

This research investigates whether abrupt changes indicative of a threshold response occurred in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment within upper treeline ecotones in the Bighorn Mountains of north-central Wyoming, with a particular focus on assessing whether treeline advance occurred. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of tree establishment at multiple spatial scales (local and landscape). Increases in the elevational extent of treeline and tree density above timberline were reconstructed for each decade of the 20^th century. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect threshold changes in tree establishment. Marked increases in tree establishment and density occurred at local and landscape scales during the 20th century, particularly during the post-1970 period and in areas above timberline. Varying degrees of treeline advance occurred during this time, yet establishment upslope from timberline was often contingent on the availability of sheltered microsites in the lee of boulders. This highlights the importance of both broad-scale climate inputs and fine-scale site conditions in governing the rate and pattern of tree establishment in high-elevation treeline environments. Overall, the abrupt changes in tree establishment over time and space since 1970 suggest that bioclimatic thresholds can strongly influence ecotonal dynamics at upper treeline.     

The influence of weather on the recreational uses of coastal lagoons in Rhode Island,USA

The recreational uses of coastal lagoons (also known locally as salt ponds) contribute significantly to the important tourism economy of the southern part of the US state of Rhode Island. The lagoons are valued highly for the wide range of recreational services they provide, such as fishing, clamming, rowing, boating, or merely relaxing. Outdoors on or near the water, weather conditions may influence individual recreation decisions strongly. A changing climate is expected to affect weather conditions in Rhode Island, thereby potentially influencing when, how, and how much recreation will take place in the coastal areas of the state. Through direct observations of human activities on coastal lagoons, the sensitivity of coastal recreational uses to changes in weather conditions was assessed. If future changes in climate bring warmer temperatures and more intense wind and rain events, our results suggest that there may be a decrease in relaxing, rowing, and fishing on coastal lagoons when days are hotter and a decrease in rowing and fishing when days are windier. Nevertheless, warmer temperatures also may lengthen the summers, leading to an overall increase in the peak coastal recreation season. However, during the hottest periods, there may be a shift toward more motor boating and away from other uses, motor boaters were more resistant than other users to changes when temperatures increase. Understanding how weather and climate influence coastal recreation could help coastal managers and businesses better plan for the future in Rhode Island and other coastal environments worldwide.     

BP神经网络遥感水深反演算法的改进

针对BP神经网络遥感水深反演算法（简称传统BP算法）的缺点,提出了改进型BP神经网络遥感水深反演算法（简称改进型BP算法）,其基本原理是在模型训练过程中反复运用粒子群算法对BP神经网络的权值和阈值进行优化以弥补传统BP算法的不足。试验表明：改进型BP算法的训练迭代收敛速度明显快于传统BP算法,浅水区的水深反演精度优于传统BP算法,且学习算法对初始权值和阈值不敏感。     

一种改进小波阈值去噪方法的研究

针对传统小波阈值去噪分析的不足,分别从两个方面进行改进：1）根据小波系数在各尺度上的相关性,提出基于Lip指数阈值寻优的新方法;2）用构造的新小波阈值函数处理小波系数,克服了软阈值的高阶不可导和硬阈值函数的不连续,且计算方便。最后使用新方法对一组离散变形数据进行去噪处理,验证了其有效性和优越性。     

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m³/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is −1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL_I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL_I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.