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洪水影响预报和风险预警理念与业务实践 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
我国是世界上洪涝灾害频繁而严重的国家之一,洪水预报预警是防汛减灾工作中重要的非工程措施和洪水防御工作的耳目和参谋。从水文行业的视角,回顾了近年来我国洪水预报预警技术与业务进展,分析了当前洪水预报预警工作面临的新形势和新要求,对比国内外同类行业发展查找了存在的差距,阐述了洪水影响预报和风险预警的定义和理念,从顶层对基于影响预报和风险预警的新一代洪水预报预警系统("国家洪水预报预警系统")总体框架进行了研究和设计,一些关键技术成果在大范围洪水早期预警业务实践中得到了探索应用,取得了较好的效果。 相似文献
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中国的全国区域化探扫面计划(RGNR)迄今已进行了24年,已经覆盖了全国600余万平方千米的国土面积,获得了高质量元素分析的海量数据,通过对这些数据进行的综合研究,笔者发现了比传统意义的分散晕分散流更为宽广的地球化学模式:区域异常、地球化学省、地球化学巨省和地球化学域。这种更为宽广的所谓套合着的地球化学模式谱系实际上是地球上富含各种金属的巨大岩块的内部结构特征在地表的表现,这种“地球化学块体”是原始地球的不均一性以及地球从起始演化到现在的过程中元素的分布再分配的最终结果的体现,笔者从中得到了这种大的地球化学块体能够为大型巨型矿床的形成提供其所必需的足够的物质供应量的新认识。而追索某元素地球化学块体的内部结构则可揭示该元素在地球化学块体中逐步浓集成矿的轨迹。尽管地球化学块体的理论与方法学研究虽然尚在初期阶段,但已为勘查地球化学、矿床学与成矿学开拓了眼界,并提供了新的研究思路。 相似文献
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The major elements, rare earth elements (REE) and trace elements of four basalt samples from central and western Pacific ferro- manganese crust provinces have been analyzed using chemical methods and ICP - MS, respectively. The results indicate that the samples have been extensively altered and that the contents of their major elements have changed significantly. However, the similarity of REE partition patterns and trace element contents of basalt samples to those of fresh oceanic island basalts (OIB) indicate that the basalt samples originated as OIB. Because of low-temperature alteration, the contents of A1203 , Fe203 , MnO, K20 and P205 increased, while MgO and FeO decreased. Active components, such as magnesium and iron, were leached from OIB resulting in the relative enrichment of SiO2. The leaching of active components can cause the relative enrichment of REE, while the precipitation of LREE-rich ferromanganese oxides in vesicles and fissures not only causes an increase of REE contents, but also induces "fractionation" of LREE and HREE. Based on the enrichment mechanism of REE contents, the theoretical quantities of precipitated ferromanganese oxides and the depleted quantities of active components are calculated : the depleted quantities of active components for the unit mass of fresh basalts vary in the range of 0.15 ~ 0. 657, and the precipitated quantities of ferromanganese oxides for the unit mass of fresh basahs vary in the range of 0. 006 ~ 0. 042. Of the major elements, the two most depleted are iron, and magnesium, with 18.28% ~ 70.95% of iron and 44.50% ~ 93.94% of magnesium in the fresh basalts was leached out. Theoretical calculation and geochemistry results both indicate that low-temperature alteration of basalts can supply abundant amount of metals to seawater, and may play an important role in ocean metal circulation. 相似文献
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To study the hyporheic exchange driven by a single peak flood-induced water level fluctuation (i.e., flood wave), a method combining numerical simulation with theoretical derivation was proposed based on the Inbuk Stream, Korea, where flooding occurs frequently. The hyporheic exchanges induced by different flood waves were investigated by varying amplitude (A), duration (T), wave type parameter (r), and rising duration (tp), which were adopted from the real-time stream stage fluctuations. Additionally, the idea of constant upstream flood volume (CUFV) condition for flood waves was put forward, and the effects of “Botan” (T/A) and peak number (N) on hyporheic exchange were studied. The results showed that the hyporheic exchange flux (q) was controlled by the water level h (sine-type) and its change rate v (cosine-type), and was proportional to the polynomial of them q ∝ (ω∙ h + v), where ω is the angular frequency of the flood wave. Based on this mechanism, the influence principles on hyporheic exchanges of the typical flood wave parameters (A, T, r and tp) as well as T/A and N under CUFV condition were clarified. The main characteristic variables of hyporheic exchange, which were maximum aquifer storage and residence time, were positively correlated. They also had positive relations to the integral of the flood wave over time, which increased when the wave became higher, wider, rounder and less skewed. However, when CUFV condition was imposed, the residence time was positively correlated with T/A, whereas the maximum aquifer storage was negatively correlated with T/A. With the increase in N, water exchanged more frequently and some water returned to the stream early, leading to the slight decrease in maximum aquifer storage and residence time. These findings enriched the theory of hyporheic exchange driven by surface water fluctuation and be of great significance to enhance pollutant degradation in the hyporheic zone downstream of reservoirs. 相似文献
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北京市房山区大气污染物时空分布特征及气象影响因素分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用北京市房山区良乡镇和琉璃河镇内的区域自动气象站和环境监测站观测数据,对2013年至2015年PM_(2. 5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2、CO 5种大气污染物浓度变化特征进行了统计分析。结果显示,近3年来,两个镇综合污染物指数呈现逐年下降趋势,各污染物对房山区整体大气污染的贡献率从大至小依次为PM_(2. 5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2、CO,PM_(2. 5)已取代传统大气污染物SO_2成为房山区的主要大气污染贡献体。两个站点各污染物浓度均表现出明显的季节、月、日变化特征。在不同季节条件下,局地气象要素与污染天气发生概率之间有着很好的相关关系。因此,可根据气象要素分级方法找出各季节污染天气发生时最敏感的气象因素,为局地污染天气预报提供参考指标,也为防范空气污染、制定科学的综合管理措施提供科学参考。 相似文献