A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

桥头堡战略下德宏发展“非大众型旅游”的探讨——以瑞丽市珠宝旅游为例

非大众旅游是发展中国家倡导一种新的旅游形式。本文介绍非大众旅游概念及特点,并根据德宏的区位、社会经济、旅游资源条件,阐述非大众旅游在德宏州发展的可行性。瑞丽市在社会经济、旅游资源、旅游市场等方面具备了发展非大众旅游的条件,但目前缺少相应的政策引导。根据瑞丽市珠宝旅游的特点,提出了发展非大众旅游的相关策略,地方政府可以通过政策引导、制定科学的旅游规划等工作,优先发展非大众旅游,促进旅游持续发展。     

STUDIES ON TERRACES AND RIVER SYSTEM CHANGES OF THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER

Ｉ.ＴｈｅＴｅｒｒａｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＵｐｐｅｒＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒＴｈｅｔｅｒｒａｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｕｐｐｅｒＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒａｒｅｍｏｓｔｌｙｄｉｓｐｅｒｓｅｄａｌｏｎｇｔｈｅｗｉｄｅｒｃｏｕｒｓｅｓｉｎｓｅｖｅｒａｌＭｅｓｏｚｏｉｃＣｅｎｏｚｏｉｃｂａｓｉｎｓ(Ｆｉｇｕｒｅ1).1.ＴｅｒｒａｃｅｓｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＮｇｏｒｉｎｇＬａｋｅａｎｄＧｙａｒｉｎｇＬａｋｅＴｈｅｓｕｒｆａｃｅｌａｙｅｒｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｉｎｔｈｅｗｉｄｅａｎｄｓｈａｌｌｏｗｂａｓｉｎｓｗｈｅｒｅｔｈｅＹｅｌｌ…     

Comparison of Kuqa foreland basin with Persian Gulf Basin in salt tectonics

Compared Kuqa foreland basin with Persian Gulf Basin in development of salt layers, salt tectonics, and the relation between salt tectonics and hydrocarbon, it is concluded that the salt diapirs are relative to hydrocarbon. Searching salt diapirs and related traps in Kuqa foreland basin is important. The forming mechanism of salt tectonic in Kuqa foreland basin is different from that of Hormuz Series, but similar to that of Lower Fars Series/Gachsaran Formation. Inspired by the role of salt tectonics of Lower Fars Series/Gachsaran Formation in hydrocarbon accumulation, the authors considered that the exploration below salt layer should be enforced, and the traps below salt layer in the southern part of the Kuqa foreland basin would be found where salt layer is thicker. On the contrary, the traps should be found both above and below the salt layer in front of the northern mountain where salt layer is thin. The Triassic and Jurassic source rocks are rich in this area with great exploration prospective.     

鄂尔多斯盆地泾川地区三叠系延长组烃源岩特征及其沉积环境

泾川地区位于鄂尔多斯盆地西南缘,烃源岩发育情况尚不明确。通过野外地质调查和钻井岩心观察,结合烃源岩测试及元素地球化学资料,对长10—长7烃源岩进行评价,在环境分析的基础上研究影响烃源岩发育的主要因素。结果表明：研究区延长组烃源岩以长73泥页岩为最好,有机质类型以Ⅰ型和Ⅱ1为主,TOC为 0.42%～29%;长10—长7泥岩有机质以Ⅱ2型为主,平均TOC含量低于 2%;Ro为 0.47%～1.08%,有机质基本已成熟。长10—长7烃源岩形成于温暖潮湿的环境,弱还原弱氧化的淡水介质条件,水深相对较浅。古生产力、沉积速率及水介质环境影响烃源岩发育。热水活动促进了古生物的繁盛,P、Cu含量及 P/Ti值越高,有机质 TOC含量越高。（La/Yb）N值越高,沉积速率越低,有机质越富集。Cu/Zn值越高,V/Cr值越高,Th/U值越低,水体还原性越好,有机质丰度越高。总之,热水活动提高了古生产力水平,相对较低的沉积速率有利于有机质的富集,还原性较强的水介质条件可使有机质得到良好的保存。陇县一带烃源岩因受陆源植物输入的影响,且形成环境不利,烃源岩品质相对较差。     

不同地形特征下云南沿边村寨农户生计资产研究

依据英国国际发展署(DFID)提出的可持续生计分析框架为指导,选取与农户生计资产密切相关的评价因子,建立农户生计资本评价指标体系,对云南省25个沿边县域中具有不同地形特征的64个村寨生计资本进行了测算、对比和分析。研究发现,研究区生计资本总体水平偏低,不同地形特征下村寨间生计资本差异性较大,生计资本不平衡,针对不同的生计脆弱性,提出如下讨论:(1)人力资本上,着重加强和巩固教育和培训力度;(2)金融资本、社会资本上,加大农业现代化水平的投资力度,加大加强农业合作组织的建设;(3)物质资本上,建议增加对农业基础设施和信息媒体的建设;(4)在自然资本的脆弱性上,要在可持续性利用的基础上,大力发展循环经济。     

基于行动者网络理论的乡村绅士化演化过程与机制解析——以广西巴马盘阳河流域为例

乡村绅士化是城乡要素双向流动背景下乡村转型与振兴的新型路径。基于对广西巴马盘阳河流域乡村绅士化现象的历时性田野调查,采用行动者网络理论解析乡村绅士化演化的过程、类型与机制。研究表明：在巴马盘阳河流域乡村人类行动者与非人类行动者、“草根”行动者与机构行动者共同缔结的行动者网络的转换过程中,伴随关键行动者从“候鸟人”先锋、屯社精英向地方政府、投资开发商的更替,乡村绅士化路径从“草根”绅士化向机构绅士化演替,乡村产业从接待“候鸟人”、发展旅游转向大健康产业融合发展,乡村绅士化类型从单一的舒适移民绅士化向舒适移民、旅游和地产共构的“一地多类”绅士化演化。关键行动者更替及其功能角色转换、绅士化路径变迁和主导产业更替与融合发展、宏观乡村发展制度与地域自然人文环境共同作用于乡村绅士化的阶段演替与类型共生。行动者网络理论与方法利于呈现乡村绅士化的阶段演替脉络与共生演化特征,并揭示乡村绅士演化的一般机制与地域机制。     

APPLICATION OF MAP AND FILE INFORMATIONVISUALIZATION SYSTEM TO COMPREHENSIVEDIVISION OF NATURAL DISASTERS- Takingthe ChangjiangValleg as an Example

In recent years，scholars at home and abroad have method，and that vanous disasters would be analyzed assynthetically studied natural dlsaste‘theoretically and an Integral．SHI Peilun（1991）putforwad a scientificmethodologlcally，as well as its cases analys。s（CND，term—regional disaster system，which Indicates that1987； MA et al，1990； MARBLE，1990； NE et al，the situation of a disaster（calamity loss）results from1999； PATAK et al，1982； SHI，1991；VAN et al，h…     

祁连山南坡灌丛草甸生物量变化与水热因子的关系研究

通过野外调研和室内实验,研究了祁连山南坡灌丛草甸地上生物量的生长季变化,并对地上生物量与水热因子的关系进行了探讨。结果表明：在不同区域群落结构有所不同,覆盖度越低,上层和下层的植物高度越低,丰富度和多样性越小。但均匀度还受草场退化阶段的影响,群落结构相对稳定,植物的均匀度越高;地上生物量的年内变化是单峰曲线,乌鞘岭和门源的地上生物量在7月份最大,祁连和野牛沟的地上生物量在9月份最大;地上生物量的积累与前1月和前2月的气温和降水正相关,与前4月的气温也正相关,并且对气温变化的敏感性大于降水,但与地温和土壤水分的相关性不明显,前1月表层地温较高对地上生物量的积累有积极作用;对于地上生物量积累,日气温、日相对湿度、降水量有直接正向作用,而日最高气温、日最低气温、日水汽压有直接负向作用,5 cm、20 cm地温和0~10 cm、20~30 cm土壤水分也有直接正向作用,而10 cm地温和10~20 cm土壤水分也有直接负向作用。     

共和盆地黏土矿物与孢粉记录的末次冰消期以来的气候环境相位差

在青藏高原北缘共和盆地达连海钻取了40.92 m沉积柱,其¹⁴C年代有10个控制点,底部年龄最大值为14.5 cal ka BP,沉积柱为末次冰消期以来的湖泊沉积物。在沉积柱中按20 cm/70 a分辨率选出200个样品进行了黏土矿物、粒度、碳酸盐、沉积速率等非生物指标与生物指标的孢粉等多项指标的综合分析。结果表明：末次冰消期以来,达连海沉积柱中非生物指标与生物指标反映的气候和环境变化阶段的显著性不同,反映的气候环境的变化阶段也不尽一致,出现气候环境的相位差。冰消期黏土矿物非生物指标与孢粉生物指标有约1.0~1.2 ka的相位差;早、中全新世黏土矿物反映的气候变化时段较孢粉指标指示的时段滞后约1.0 ka;在晚全新世黏土矿物反映的气候变化较孢粉滞后约0.1 ka。造成黏土矿物和孢粉反映气候环境相位差的原因是孢粉和黏土矿物对气候响应的差异性、黏土矿物和孢粉搬运方式的不同、气候条件及其转换、地貌等多因素的综合影响。