长江流域水资源、灾害及水环境状况初步分析

长江是我国第一、世界第三大河流,发源于青藏高原,全长6300多公里,流域面积180×104km²,占中国陆地面积的1/5。长江及其流域不仅以其不可替代的自然资源优势和其他江河无法比拟的区位优势,在我国国民经济和社会发展中扮演着举足轻重的角色,特别是约占全国的36%、拥有9616×10⁸m³的年径流量(为黄河的20倍),是我国最重要的水源地。这不仅对长江流域资源优势的发挥和缓解我国北方地区日趋严重的水资源短缺问题至关重要,而且对全国的可持续发展也将产生深远影响。然而,在长江流域大规模开发及经济快速发展的同时,人类活动与自然规律的负面效应相互叠加,导致了流域环境的生态调节和自我恢复功能大幅降低,引起了日趋严重的水环境退化、洪涝灾害威胁加剧等问题。文章首先对长江流域水资源的重要性及其作用做了分析,肯定了其丰富的资源和重要的战略地位,该流域在占全国不足18%的土地上,集中了40%以上的人口及国民生产总值,而且其经济地位有进一步上升的趋势,在水量及水能的蕴藏上,全流域湖泊面积达10323km²,占我国淡水湖泊总面积的37.2%,水能蕴藏总计达2.7×10⁸kW。另外,对长江流域日趋严重灾害及水环境问题做了探讨,尤其中游的洪水、淤积以及随着经济发     

晚更新世晚期以来的长江上游古洪水记录

长江上游三峡河段主要的古洪水记录有:1)三峡深槽的蚀积变化;2)长江阶地粗粒沉积;3)长江的泛滥沉积;4)长江的古洪水平流沉积。不同时间跨度不同类型古洪水记录的精度有较大的差别。古洪水记录显示,晚更新世晚期的40～30kaB.P.,长江上游大洪水比30kaB.P.以来的长江上游大洪水大得多;全新世以来,以3983aB.P.前后的大洪水为相对最大;公元1870年大洪水为3000aB.P.以来最大洪水;近百年来的实测洪水以公元1981年洪水为最大。     

Hydrothermal Mineralization on the Mesoproterozoic Passive Continental Margins of China： A Case Study of the Langshan-Zha＇ertaishan Belt, Inner Mongolia, China

Most ore-forming characteristics of the Langshan-Zha‘ertaishan hydrothermal exhalation belt, which consists of the Dongshengmiao, Huogeqi, Tanyaokou and Jiashengpan large-superlarge Zn-Pb-Cu-Fe sulfide deposits, are most similar to those of Mesoproterozoic SEDEX-type provinces of the world. The characteristics include: (1) All deposits of this type in the belt occur in third-order fault-basins in the Langshan-Zha‘ertaishan aulacogen along the northern margin of the North China Platform; (2) these deposits with all their orebodies hosted in the Mesoproterozoic impure dolomite-marble and carbonaceous phyllite (or schists) have an apparent stratabound nature; ores display laminated and banded structures, showing clear depositional features; (3) there is some evidence of syn-sedimentary faulting, which to a certain extent accounts for the temporal and spatial distribution and the size of the orebodies in all deposits and the formation of intrabed conglomerates and breccias; (4) they show lateral and vertical zonation of sulfides; (5) The Cu/(Pb Zn Cu) ratio of the large and thick Pb Zn Cu orebodies gradually decreases from bottom to top; and (6) barite is interbedded with pyrites and sometimes with sphalerite. However, some characteristics such as the Co/Ni radio of the pyrites, the volcanism, for example, of the Langshan-Zha‘ertalshan metallogenic belt, are different from those of the typical SEDEX deposits of the world. The meta-basic volcanic rock in Huogeqi, the sodic bimodal volcanic rocks in the Dongshengmiao and potassic bimodal-volcanic rocks with blastoporphyfitic and blasto-glomeroporphyritic texture as well as blasto-amygdaloidal structure in the Tanyaokou deposits have been discovered in the only ore-bearing second formation of the Langshan Group in the past 10 years. The metallogeny of some deposits hosted in the Langshan Group is closely related to syn-sedimentary volcanism based on the following facts: most of the lead isotopes in sphalerite, galena, pyrite, pyrrhotite and chalcopyrite plot on both sides of the line for the mantle or between the lines for the mantle and lower crust in the lead isotope composition diagram; cobalt content of some pyrites samples is much higher than the nickel content (Co/Ni= 11.91-12.19). Some volcanic blocks and debris have been picked out from some pyritic and pyrrhotitic ores. All Zn-Pb-Cu-Fe sulfide orebodies in these deposits occur in the strata overlying metamorphic volcanic rocks in the only ore-bearing second formation. In the Jiashengpan deposit that lacks syn-sedimentary volcanic rocks in the host succession only Pb and Zn ores occur without Cu ore, but in the Dongshengmiao, Tanyaokou and Huogeqi deposits with syn-sedimentary volcanic rocks in the host succession Cu ores occur. This indicates a relatively higher ore-forming temperature. The process of synsedimentary volcanic eruption directly supplied some ore-forming elements, and resulted in secular geothermal anomaly favorable for the circulation of a submarine convective hydrothermal system, which accounts for the precipitation of deep mineralizing fluids exhaling into anoxidic basins along the syn-sedimentary fault system in the Langshan-Zha‘ertai rift. The Dongshengmiao, Tanyaokou, and Huogeqi deposits hosted in the Langshan Group appear to be a transitional type of mineral deposit between SEDEX and VMS-types but with a bias towards SEDEX, while the Jiashengpan deposit hosted in the Zha‘ertai Group is of a characteristic SEDEX type. This evidence, together with other new discoveries of Mesoproterozoic volcanic rocks and the features of lithogeny and metallogeny of the Bayun Obo deposit in the neighborhood emphasize the diversity, complexity and uniqueness of the Mesoproterozoic Langshan-Zha‘ertal-Bayun Obo ore belt.     

Regional moment tensor uncertainty due to mismodeling of the crust

The retrieval of earthquake moment tensor (MT) requires the response of the medium, in which seismic waves travel from the hypocenter to the stations, to be known. In inverting long-period (LP) seismic data (teleseismic and LP regional records), a gross earth model is sufficient; with decreasing periods, a more detailed model is needed. This is the case when waveforms of weak earthquakes at regional distances are to be inverted. Regional moment tensors (RMTs) of mostly Mediterranean earthquakes are determined on a routine basis by the Swiss Seismological Survey (SED) by using averaged models of the earth's crust. By inverting broad-band records of the M_w=4.8 earthquake near Udine, N Italy, on Feb. 14, 2002, we tested the sensitivity of the MT solution with respect to possible errors in the earth model used and in the location of the hypocenter depth. We perturbed the P and S velocities and the thickness in the 1-D earth model in the range from 3% to 30% of the parameter values and constructed estimates of confidence regions of the MT and error bars of the source time function (STF) and scalar moment in three frequency bands. Similarly, these error characteristics were determined assuming a mislocation in the hypocenter depth. We found that, in the band of periods from 25 to 50 s, the mechanism is resolved well (at the confidence level 95% at least) up to an earth model uncertainty of 30%, in the passband 10–25 s up to about 10%, but it is undetermined completely at periods of 5–10 s. An error in hypocenter depth of as much as double the value reported by the location procedure does not destroy the resolution of the mechanism at periods above 10 s. In the RMT catalog of the SED, earthquakes of M_w greater than about 3.5 are processed at periods above 30 s; thus, the solutions for these events are robust with respect to a possible uncertainty in the earth model used. Mechanisms of weaker earthquakes, retrieved from short periods, should be interpreted with caution.     

At the heart of the cultural approach in geography: Thinking space

The way that space is thought of is at the heart of the cultural approach in geography. The passing down of all the components of a culture depends upon the way data is aquired and processed, the results memorized or broadcast. Communication shapes the experience and the knowledge of space and time. It gives to everyone the idea that the real world is doubled by a beyond which plays a central role in social life, since it is upon such a beyond that normative thinking relies and that a significance is given to individual and social life. The spheres of lived-in and known space and time, as well as that of the beyond, vary according to available technologies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

长江黄河源区多年冻土变化及其生态环境效应

应用江河源区五站1980-1998年0cm、5cm、10cm、15cm、20cm、40cm浅层地温资料、钻孔深层地温资料以及勘探资料,详细分析了两大源区的冻土变化,结果表明:近20年来,受气候变暖影响,江河源区多年冻土总体上保存条件不利,区域上呈退化趋势。岛状多年冻土和季节冻土区年均地温升高约0 3～0 7℃,大片连续多年冻土区升幅较小,为0 1～0 4℃。多年冻土上限以2～10cm/a的速度加深。在黄河源多年冻土的边缘地带,垂向上形成不衔接冻土和融化夹层,多年冻土分布下界上升50～70m。冻土退化已对江河源寒区经济和生态环境产生了一系列重要影响。但是,冻土退缩及其对环境的影响还存在很大的不确定性。     

基于不同退耕模式的黄土丘陵区生态环境建设地域分异特征

退耕是目前国家关于黄土丘陵区生态环境建设的主体措施。在总结"赈济退耕25"、"赈济退耕15"和"梯田退耕"各模式基本特点的基础上,根据土地利用、耕地坡度分级数据、农业人口数据和不同模式生态环境建设标准,分别计算了黄土丘陵区各县(市、区)退耕25°和15°以上坡耕地、新建园地、新修梯田、林草植被恢复的面积以及相应的投资需求额度。在构建并采用生态环境建设指数、政策性补贴资金密度指数和投资需求密度指数等指标,对55个县(市、区)进行类型划分的基础上,分析了黄土丘陵区不同退耕模式下的生态环境建设规模及投资需求地域分异特征。     

孟湾槽在百色市异常降雪天气中的作用

通过对1983年12月28日、2002年12月26日百色市两次异常降雪天气过程的对比分析,发现冬季孟加拉湾槽的发展东移在其中起到了关键性的作用。由于孟加拉湾槽前暖湿气流强盛,这种强盛的西南暖湿气流在低空冷空气堆(冷锋)上发生强烈的系统性上升运动,从而导致百色市及其邻近地区出现异常的雨雪天气。     

Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。