用时间序列模拟和预报天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川年径流总量

本文把1958—1984年天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的融水径流总量的时间序列X(t),分解为趋势项L(t)、周期项P(t)、平稳项S(t)、随机项ε(t),使该时间序列表示为X(t)=L(t)+P(t)+S(t)+ε(t)。采用非线性回归提取L(t),用谱分析和Fourier级数提取P(t),余差用自回归方程建模,用上述项的叠加作出预报,按相关指数公式计算R=0.90,效果良好。     

大化水库地震分析

大化水库自1983年蓄水后出现频繁的微弱地震,延续时间达7年,最大震为Ms1.7级,地震系列属震群型,初步判断属水库诱发地震。由于库区有活动断层且岩溶发育,地震诱发机制可能为断层孔隙水压力效应或岩液塌陷。从地震发展趋势分析,目前已处于衰减程过,预测今后不会有强震发生。     

中国东部地洼阶段应力场与锡成矿

中国东部地壳地洼阶段的热塑性变形应力场有利于锡成矿。构造应力场对锡成矿的控制作用,表现为对成矿域的矿液运移势和能量场的控制。推导获得矿液运移势的计算公式:Vi=-(a·K_0/u)·[exp(σ_1-σ_2)]·(σ_1+σ_2),表明地壳构造应力场对成矿域矿液的运移和成矿部位的选择提供了有利的动力学条件。     

A univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting

This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

The pattern characteristics of the tendency variations of earth resistivity and its relation to earthquakes

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南方大到暴雪的一种预报方法

对构成南方大到暴雪的两个特征量：降水量和积雪深度用多种预报方法从晴雨、降水性质、降水量级、冰冻及积雪厚度等不同角度分别进行预报，然后通过推理组合，最终建立暴雪预报方法。该方法除了可以得出有无大到暴雪的预报结果外，还可以得到多种中间预报结果，从而适应预报服务的多种需要。在近３年的实际使用中获得了很好的效果。     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

东北地区地震危险趋势分析

利用丰富的震史资料，研究了日本海沟、日本海深震与中国东北浅震的时空特征。根据深震、浅震的相关活动特点，我们对东北浅震危险趋势进行了分析。