2003年6、7月西昌二次4.8级地震的预测与分析

2003年6月17日和7月10日,先后在四川省西昌市和西昌-昭觉间发生2次ML4 8级强有感地震.对于这2次地震,我们曾作了较好的中期和短期预测.但是对于6月17日发生的第一次ML4 8级地震,未能做出临震预测;对于第二次地震,则在7月1日向上级填报的周会商表中作了明确的临震预测,7月10日,在西昌-昭觉间发生了ML4.8级地震.根据西昌地震遥测台网各子台的P波初动求解震源机制,结合地震所处的地质构造以及现场烈度考察圈定出的结果分析,认为这二次地震是由安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂、凉山断裂所围成的凉山小菱形块体活动的结果.     

建筑结构抗震能力评估技术的研究及应用

简要介绍影响建筑结构抗震能力的主要因素，重点评述目前建筑结构抗震能力评估的主要技术方法并指出其存在的问题，展望今后抗震能力评估技术的应用及发展趋势。     

利用GPS资料浅析华北地区块体运动及与地震活动的关系

为了研究华北地区近年地壳水平运动的状态与演化．利用10a来华北地区网络工程、山西断裂带GPS观测成果．结合该区地质构造背景．分析了华北地区各块体运动的方向、速率变化及其与区内所发生地震的关系．初步得出以下结论：在区域应力场相对稳定时，表现为区域内GPS观测点整体趋势性运动不明显；而在区域应力场相对变化时．表现为影响区域内GPS观测点出现明显的整体趋势性运动。     

AN APPARENT TEMPERATURE MODEL BASED ON THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM

In this paper,a comprehensive analysis and review of the advances in the research of human body comfort degree is made.Based on the studies of human thermal equilibrium theories contributed by previous researchers,different apparent temperature models corresponding to different environments are set up in accordance with the current situation and the characteristics of metabolism in different groups of people in China.After case studies and comparison with present dominant human body comfort degree statistical models,it is proved that the apparent temperature models have high rationality and wide adaptability.Furthermore,the comfort scaling standard according to apparent temperature is suggested,which is suitable for the middle latitude regions in China.     

云南2001年施甸地震的剪切波分裂参数变化特征

云南地区2001年4月10日至6月8日相继发生了4月10日MＳ5.2、4月12日MＳ5.9和6月8日MＳ5.3的施甸地震. 本文利用云南遥测数字地震台网的保山地震台记录的地震波形资料，使用SAM分析方法（即剪切波分裂系统分析方法），采用地震应力预测的分析手段，对这个强震系列进行剪切波分裂参数变化特征的研究. 初步结果表明，随着地震活动的增强，剪切波分裂时间延迟值t基本呈现增加的特征，但在强震即将发生之前的短时间内，发生t减小的现象，符合我们早先研究发现的震前应力释放现象. 研究认为，在地震活动强烈的构造地区和有强震发生危险的经济发达地区或重要城市，开展强烈地震的应力预测应用实践，可以减轻地震的危害程度.      

遥感图象自动识别城市震害房屋-以2001年印度库奇地震和1976年唐山地震为例

近断层地震动对地表结构物造成严重的破坏，它具有明显的方向性和脉冲型特征. 在速度时程中含有大幅值、长周期的脉冲波，对结构响应影响很大. 为简化计算和分析的需要，在既有的等效速度脉冲模型的基础上，建议了较为合理等效速度脉冲模型. 在充分收集脉冲型近断层地震记录的基础上，对等效速度脉冲模型的脉冲周期、脉冲强度及卓越脉冲数等参数进行了研究，并与以往研究者的结果进行比较，以利于近断层区结构的抗震设计.      

多尺度分解在地震信号处理中的应用

利用小波分析中的多尺度分解及信号消噪技术，对记录不清、信噪比小、震相无法辨认的地震信号进行处理。结果表明：多尺度分解在弱震信号提取和弱震相的识别等方面有很好的效果。     

An Algorithm for the Determination of All Significant Pathways in Chemical Reaction Systems

When the output of a complex chemical model is analysed, a typical topic isthe determination of pathways, i.e., reaction sequences, that produce ordestroy a chemical species of interest.A representative example is the investigation of catalytic ozone destruction cycles in the stratosphere.An algorithm for the automatic determination of pathways in any given reactionsystem is presented. Under the assumption that reaction rates are known, it finds all significant pathways, i.e., all pathways with a rate above a prescribed threshold.The algorithm forms pathways step by step, starting from single reactions.The chemical species in the system are consecutively considered as `branching points'.For every branching-point species, each pathway producing it is connected witheach pathway consuming it.Rates proportional to `branching probabilities' are calculated.Pathways with a rate that is smaller than a prescribed threshold arediscarded.If a newly formed pathway contains sub-pathways, e.g., null cycles, it is split into these simpler pathways.In order to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm, it has been applied to the determination of catalytic ozone destruction cycles and methaneoxidation pathways in the stratosphere.     

未定名矿物(Bi38CrO60)的矿物学研究

人工合成立方晶体Bi38CrO60在自然界首次发现于中国陕西省洛南县驾鹿金矿床中,暂称之为未定名矿物.其共生和伴生矿物有黄铁矿、自然金、碲金矿、含氧金矿物等.常呈不规则粒状集合体,偶见立方体微晶(粒径小于0.05 mm),棕黑色,金属光泽;HV=232.78 kg/mm2 ,HM=4.15;D=14.10(3)g/cm3,Dx=14.08(2)g/cm3,n=3.14(3).EPM8100探针分析Bi2O3为98.854%、CrO3为1.111%,合计99.965%,化学式为Bi38.009Cr0.995O60;CAMEBAX-SX51探针分析Bi2O3为98.862%,CrO3为1.112%,合计99.974%,化学式为Bi38.008Cr0.996O60.均可写为Bi38CrO60.X射线粉晶分析主要强度线d(I)(hkl)分别为0.321 5(100),(310);0.272 11(72),(321);0.171 45(40),(530);0.169 6(30),(600);0.165 1(30),(611);0.160 8(30),(620);0.294 11(25),(222);0.359 6(22),(220);0.217 1(20),(332);0.150 3(20),(631),等轴晶系,可能的空间群为Im3m;a=1.018 1(1)nm,c/a=1,晶胞体积v=1.055 29(1)nm3,z=1.1-Kp/Kc=0.019.Cr6 ,Bi3 ,O2-.未定名矿物和人工晶体的化学成分与X射线粉晶数据基本一致.     

Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance

As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been done for many years, include these contents: insurance model, financing. This paper presents the development of china in EDM and EI. The main contents include: (1) the statue and trend of earthquake disaster management and insurance in china; (2) the progresses and new methods about the seismic risk zonation and vulnerability analysis, and the future developing trend, the application of GIS in earthquake disaster assessment is introduced; (3) the way and illustration in building the earthquake disaster e