基于AHP法和灰色模式识别理论的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估

根据海底管道路由潜在风险的特点及风险类型,提出了一种将层次分析法（AHP法）和灰色模式识别理论相结合的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估方法,该方法利用AHP确定风险评价指标体系,运用灰色模式识别理论,建立识别结果标准,并结合实际工程进行计算,计算结果表明该方法是可行的.     

Factors affecting spatial and temporal variability in material exchange between the Southern Everglades wetlands and Florida Bay (USA)

Physical and biological processes controlling spatial and temporal variations in material concentration and exchange between the Southern Everglades wetlands and Florida Bay were studied for 2.5 years in three of the five major creek systems draining the watershed. Daily total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) fluxes were measured for 2 years in Taylor River, and ten 10-day intensive studies were conducted in this creek to estimate the seasonal flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), total organic carbon (TOC), and suspended matter. Four 10-day studies were conducted simultaneously in Taylor, McCormick, and Trout Creeks to study the spatial variation in concentration and flux. The annual fluxes of TOC, TN, and TP from the Southern Everglades were estimated from regression equations. The Southern Everglades watershed, a 460-km² area that includes Taylor Slough and the area south of the C-111 canal, exported 7.1 g C m⁻², 0.46 g N m⁻², and 0.007 g P m⁻², annually. Everglades P flux is three to four orders of magnitude lower than published flux estimates from wetlands influenced by terrigenous sedimentary inputs. These low P flux values reflect both the inherently low P content of Everglades surface water and the efficiency of Everglades carbonate sediments and biota in conserving and recycling this limiting nutrient. The seasonal variation of freshwater input to the watershed was responsible for major temporal variations in N, P, and C export to Florida Bay; approximately 99% of the export occurred during the rainy season. Wind-driven forcing was most important during the later stages of the dry season when low freshwater head coincided with southerly winds, resulting in a net import of water and materials into the wetlands. We also observed an east to west decrease in TN:TP ratio from 212:1 to 127:1. Major spatial gradients in N:P ratios and nutrient concentration and flux among the creek were consistent with the westward decrease in surface water runoff from the P-limited Everglades and increased advection of relatively P-rich Gulf of Mexico (GOM) waters into Florida Bay. Comparison of measured nutrient flux from Everglades surface water inputs from this study with published estimates of other sources of nutrients to Florida Bay (i.e. atmospheric deposition, anthropogenic inputs from the Florida Keys, advection from the GOM) show that Everglades runoff represents only 2% of N inputs and 0.5% of P input to Florida Bay.     

灰色关联分析法在海洋环境质量评价中的应用

介绍了灰色关联分析法的原理,说明了其评价步骤。以青岛某海区海水水质评价为例阐明了该方法在海洋环境评价中的应用,并将评价结果与模糊综合评价结果加以比较,结果表明,两种评价方法的评价结果有着较明显的差别,分析了原因。本文还提出了海水污染防治措施,为海洋环境保护提供依据。     

边坡整体稳定的可靠性分析方法

边坡整体滑动稳定性的可靠性分析是建立在土体具有的抗力大于荷载效应的概率基础上进行设计和校验的。在条分法的基础上推导出了进行边坡稳定可靠性分析的统一极限状态方程 ,将土的容重γ、内摩擦角φ、粘聚力 c作为随机变量 ,当其为非正态分布时 ,进行当量正态化 ,考虑变量相关的情况 ,用简化相关法对随机变量进行统计分析 ,并以 Bishop圆弧滑动法为例 ,用 JC法求解边坡的可靠性指标及失效概率 ,给出计算安全系数和可靠性指标的算法程序。并就影响可靠性指标的因素如抗剪强度指标、变量分布形式、土性参数的变异性等进行了讨论。     

Distribution of soft-bottom polychaetes in two coastal areas of the Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy): Structural analysis

Multidimensional statistical analysis was used to study the polychaete distribution in soft-bottoms of two coastal areas of the Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy), which are influenced by the discharges of the rivers Tiber and Ombrone. In both areas the distributional patterns of these organisms are determined mainly by sediment types and related factors such as hydrodynamics, river input, and sedimentation. The grain-size gradient from the coast to the open sea affects not only species composition, but also species richness, diversity and abundance.In both areas three main communities have been identified: a sandy biocoenosis, a mixed-sediment biocoenosis and a muddy biocoenosis. The sandy coastal community is characterized by only a few species, while the intermediate zone of sandy-mud sediments presents the highest species richness and diversity. At the mouth of the River Tiber the influence of the river is more evident than at the mouth of the River Ombrone. This is due to the Tiber's greater river flow, which determines an environmental uniformity and a ‘cenotic continuum’ from sandy to muddy communities. This does not occur at the mouth of the Ombrone, where the river flow is less important and the polychaete communities are better defined.     

栉孔扇贝(Chlamys farreri)自然群体遗传多样性的RAPD分析

利用RAPD技术对栉孔扇贝(Chlamysfarreri)的四个自然群体(大连、烟台、青岛、韩国)的遗传多样性进行了分析。12个随机引物在四个群体中共检测到123个位点,其中多态位点109个,多态位点比例为88.62%;四个群体中均未检测到各群体特有的扩增带。韩国、烟台、大连、青岛四个群体的遗传多样性指数(Shannon指数)分别为0.2557、0.2557、0.2344和0.2249,以韩国和烟台群体遗传多样性较高,其次为大连群体,青岛群体最低,但它们之间无明显差异。不同群体的遗传多样性指数的平均数Hpop为0.2427,整个栉孔扇贝自然群体的遗传多样性指数Hsp为0.2503。遗传多样性剖分显示,绝大多数(97%)的遗传多样性是由群体内不同个体间的差异造成的,只有很小部分(3%)的遗传多样性与群体间的遗传分化有关。而采用基于单倍型(等位基因)之间的进化距离的AMOVA分析得到的这两个数据则分别为99%和1%,Φ值为0.010,且P=0.05,表明群体间遗传分化明显程度位于临界值。     

黄河口及其邻近海域大型底栖动物的初步研究——(二)生物与沉积环境的关系

1985年5—6月对黄河口及其邻近海域的27个站进行了大型底栖动物的首航次定量调查。分别对18种环境因子和68个优势种和习见种所做的聚类分析显示了黄河口水下三角洲与邻近海域的某些差异,并联系沉积环境将所研究海域划分为四个区:黄河口水下三角洲、莱州湾、渤海中部和渤海湾东部。对大型底栖动物与沉积速率的关系也做了初步探讨。     

南海北部海区水团的判别分析

将判别分析应用于南海北部海区的水团分析。划分为八个水团:沿岸冲淡水团(F),近岸混合水团(M),暖表层水团(WS),表层水团(S),表—次层混合水团(SU),次层水团(U),次—中层混合水团(UI)和中层水团(I)。给出了各水团在四季代表月的Bayes多组判别的系数和参数。用资料检验判别的成效.冬季和春季可达95.90％以上,夏季为94.80％,秋季是全年最低值,为92.72％。讨论了造成错判的原因,并与Fisher判别作了比较。当测值维数较低时,建议选用Bayes判别。对八个水团以及各水团两两之间差异的显著性进行了检验,证实在每个季节中各水团之间的差异,都在高度置信水平(α=0.01)上具有显著性。因而,划分为八个水团是有实际意义的,其判别式的系数和参数,可用于实际的判别和预报。