基于应力变化的余震预测研究综述

本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析,并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生,而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究,即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件,从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发,结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率,进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的,余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点,ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。     

基于FLAC^3D的锚索抗滑桩滑坡推力分布规律研究

采用FLAC^3D建立了预应力锚索桩板墙结构的三维数值模型,结合有限元强度折减法分析了不同预应力作用下锚索桩滑坡推力的分布规律,并通过改变桩后岩土体的弹性模量及性质、锚索的设置位置以及边坡强度安全储备系数等参数,对锚索桩滑坡推力的分布规律进行了系统的研究。结果表明,在地质条件不变的情况下,随着锚索预应力的增大,桩后滑坡推力的分布图形逐渐由梯形向矩形变化;预应力对桩后滑坡推力分布的影响,取决于其与桩背总桩土相互作用力的相对大小,而不是其绝对大小。说明预应力的大小是影响桩后推力分布形式的一个非常重要的因素,照搬普通抗滑桩固定不变的推力分布形式对锚索桩进行设计,显然是不合理的。     

Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better.     

Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

This work examines 140 hydrological studies conducted in the Mediterranean region. It identifies key characteristics of the hydrological responses of Mediterranean catchments at various time scales and compares different methods and modelling approaches used for individual-catchment studies. The study area is divided into the northwestern (NWM), eastern (EM) and southern (SM) Mediterranean. The analysis indicates regional discrepancies in which the NWM shows the most extreme rainfall regime. A tendency for reduced water resources driven by both anthropogenic and climatic pressures and a more extreme rainfall regime are also noticeable. Catchments show very heterogeneous responses over time and space, resulting in limitations in hydrological modelling and large uncertainties in predictions. However, few models have been developed to address these issues. Additional studies are necessary to improve the knowledge of Mediterranean hydrological features and to account for regional specificities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor A. Efstratiadis     

Intensity–duration–frequency curves exploiting neighbouring extreme precipitation data

ABSTRACT

Records of precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology, intensity–duration–frequency curves are typically estimated from observation records. However, conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do, duration-dependent area reduction factors are used, but precipitation is measured at only a few locations. Due to the high spatial variability of precipitation, it is relatively unlikely that a gauged observation network will capture the extremes that occur during a precipitation event. Therefore, the area reduction approach cannot be regarded as the reduction of an observed maximum. To investigate precipitation extremes, spatial aspects need to be considered using different approaches. Here, we both address the conventional practice of area reduction and consider a within-area chance of increased precipitation, defined as the maximum precipitation intensity observed in a cluster within a selected domain. The results show that (1) the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated in current design practice, and (2) traditional calculations underestimate extremes by as much as 30–50%. We show how they can be revised sensibly.     

Determination of scoured bridge natural frequencies with soil–structure interaction

This study developed a finite element method with the effect of soil–fluid–structure interaction to calculate bridge natural frequencies. The finite element model includes bridge girders, piers, foundations, soil, and water. The effective mass above the soil surface was then used to find the first natural frequency in each direction. A field experiment was performed to validate that the natural frequencies calculated using the proposed finite element method had acceptable accuracy. The calculated natural frequencies with the fluid–structure interaction effect are always smaller than those without this effect. However, the frequency change due to the fluid effect is not obvious, so using the soil–structure interaction model is accurate enough in the bridge natural frequency analysis. The trend of the frequency decreases with the increase of the scour depth, but the curve is not smooth because of non-uniform foundation sections and layered soils. However, when the scour depth is such that pile cap is exposed, the changes in natural frequency with the scour depth are more obvious, and this is useful for measurement of the depth using bridge natural frequencies.     

Reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulent mixing: a one-dimensional-turbulence study

We study the problem of reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence in the Boussinesq framework using one-dimensional-turbulence (ODT) simulations. In this problem a reaction zone between overlying heavy/cold reactants and underlying light/hot products moves against gravity. First, we show that ODT results for global quantities in non-reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence are within those from direct numerical simulations (DNS). This comparison give us confidence in using ODT to study unexplored flow regimes in the reactive case. Then, we show how ODT predicts an early stage of reactive Rayleigh–Taylor turbulence that behaves similarly to the non-reactive case, as observed in previous DNS. More importantly, ODT indicates a later stage where the growth of the reaction zone reduces considerably. The present work can be seen as a step towards the study of supernova flames with ODT.     

Experimental methods for river discharge measurements: comparison among tracers and current meter

Abstract

Discharge measurements in natural watercourses are performed in order to determine the value of the surface outflow of a basin, its temporal variability, and the outflow characteristics. The methods conventionally used for these measurements utilize an immersed current meter in different points of a river section, which acquires the mean flow velocity. Using this measurement, the discharge can be calculated. Some experimental problems arise, however, when there is a very high discharge. An important method, valid in such cases, is the artificial tracing method. In particular, the use of chemical tracers for small watercourses is very convenient because they are low cost, easily handled, low impact and provide satisfactory results. In the past, radioactive tracers such as tritium have been used in large rivers, while fluorescent tracers have been commonly exploited in the USA and now elsewhere. However, if the water is turbid, the suspended sediments may easily absorb some tracers. In this paper, the preliminary results of a comparison between current meter and artificial tracer measurements are reported. In particular, field tests in a small tributary have been performed, in order to investigate the behaviour of different tracers.

Citation Tazioli, A. (2011) Experimental methods for river discharge measurements: comparison among tracers and current meter. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1314–1324.     

Simulation of streamflow with statistically downscaled daily rainfall using a hybrid of wavelet and GAMLSS models

ABSTRACT

A rainfall–streamflow model is proposed, in which a downscaled rainfall series and its wavelet-based decomposed sub-series at optimum lags were used as covariates in GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape). GAMLSS is applied in climate change impact assessment using CMIP5 general climate model to simulate daily streamflow in three sub-catchments of the Onkaparinga catchment, South Australia. The Spearman correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between the observed and median simulated streamflow values were high and comparable for both the calibration and validation periods for each sub-catchment. We show that the GAMLSS has the capability to capture non-stationarity in the rainfall–streamflow process. It was also observed that the use of wavelet-based decomposed rainfall sub-series with optimum lags as covariates in the GAMLSS model captures the underlying physics of the rainfall–streamflow process. The development and application of an empirical rainfall–streamflow model that can be used to assess the impact of catchment-scale climate change on streamflow is demonstrated.     

Epistemological dimensions of the water–energy–food nexus approach: reply to discussions of “Challenges in operationalizing the water–energy–food nexus”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Varis and Keskinen, and Nauditt, for their constructive contributions. We endorse their key comments, further referring to recent literature and events, including the UN 2018 High Level Political Forum on sustainable development. Here, we elaborate on the epistemological perspective of the water–energy–food nexus conceptualization, assessment, discourse and operationalization.