Test of Source-Parameter Inversion of Intensity Data

We demonstrate that the approximate source kinematics of the San Fernando, 1971 earthquake can be back-predicted by analysing its macroseismic intensity data set (felt reports) objectively and quantitatively. This is done by inverting either the data set of the intensity values observed in all sites, or the intensities tessellated with the Voronoi polygons technique. It is shown that the kinematic characteristics found following our method (epicentral coordinates, source depth, seismic moment, rupture length, Mach number, fault plane solution) match those determined by other authors, via instrumental measurements, rather well. The prerequisite for obtaining these results is that local amplification must not affect groups of neighboring sites. It was possible to invert the U.S.G.S. ``felt reports' for the source because this data set is sufficiently uncontaminated by local site responses, and retains relevant regional traces of source effects. Isoseismal maps cannot be safely used for this task, because qualitative drawing criteria give subjective results. Isoseismals, based on incomplete space frequency samplings, give rise to spurious effects, whereas the Voronoi polygons produce easy-to-grasp, quantitative and objective, representations of macroseismic intensity data. The tests performed, up to now on a series of earthquakes, suggest that the combined use of tessellation and of our KF model is promising mostly for inverting intensities of preinstrumental earthquakes.     

降水灾变灰过程预测

在利用非邻均值生成方法对宿州市１９５３－１９９４年６－８月降水跳变值处理的基础上，应用灰色残差辨识等预测方法，建立降水跳变灰过程的若干ＧＭ（１，１）模型，对宿州市未一定时期内涝，正常，旱三种降水等级出现的年份及其具体降水量值进行预测。     

论数字化拷贝影像的质量评价

本文通过不同扫描孔径对航摄底片进行数字化并回放成硬拷贝影像的试验,分析了回放片影像分辨率下降的原因,并提出,要使回放片的影像质量满足航测成图精度的要求,应采用高分辩率的航空胶片进行摄影,以便得到高质量的原始片,或采用更小的扫描孔径进行数字化,在回放时使用高分辩率的胶片,以使影像质量少受损失。     

华北地区地壳上地幔P波速度结构

本文利用近震体波资料,研究了华北地区地壳和上地幔P波速度结构。根据华北地区的大地构造特征,分四个区域研究。结果表明,各区之间P波速度结构存在明显差异,在较活动地区壳内和地幔顶部均有低速层存在,而稳定地区则没有,作者认为,这种横向不均匀性和低速层的存在可能是构造活动区的最主要的特征。     

Research on determining the annual earthquake occurrence rates of potential seismic source areas

To actually reflect the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of intra continental strong earthquakes of North China in seismic hazard analysis, several seismological and geological characteristics have been selected and quantized to describe the seismicity features in time and space of every magnitude interval with the thought of dividing the interesting magnitude range into several intervals and using of spatial probability distribution function. A component analysis method with orthogonal transformation is introduced to avoid the repeated use of the same element and the subjective effects in determining the annual earthquake occurrence rates of earthquake. By passing synthetic fuzzy judgement on the nonintercorrelated new characteristics, the annual occurrence rates of every magnitude interval of each potential source area are obtained associated with the adjustments of earthquake reducing process after the occurrence ofM>7 quake. An intensity map of the Beijing-Tianjin-Zhangjiakou area is calculated as an example which shows a close coincidence with the seismic temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of North China. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 496–504, 1991.     

Preliminary study of the straticulate structure of crust-mantle beneath east Guangdong and south Fujian Provinces of China

Using the 12 deep focus teleseismic P waveforms recorded by 6 short-period seismographs in east Guangdong and Fujian region of China as the observed data, synthetic P waveforms comparable to the observed ones are obtained by gradually adjusting the crust-mantle model and calculating the corresponding synthetic seismograms. The results suggest that the crust-mantle structure in this region is a vertically straticulate media structure consisting of 3 pairs of thin layers with a high- and low-velocity alternation. The crustal thickness tends to increase gradually from south to north, being 31.5 km in the south and 32.4 km in the north. Finally, the suggested model is tested using the explosive data of Yunfu, Guangdong Province. The theoretical travel-time of P waves agrees fairly well with the observed travel-time. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 172–179, 1992.     

地震短临预报综合指标的研究

本文在分析了华北震例资料的基础上，结合实用化攻关结果和多种孕震模型对前兆的解释，提取具有物理意义的１３个短临指标，建立了组合式短临指标体系，用信息集成方法计算短临群体异常综合信息量（Ｙ），以此值作为判定是否进入短临阶段的定量标志。当此值达到阈值（０．１０）时，结合中期前兆异常、地震活动性异常、异常台项比等因素，计算了短临预报综合指标Ｓ值，以Ｓ值作为是否形短临预报意见的定量判据。本文的方法把预测时间