GIS MCE技术在农业气象灾害风险评价中的应用

气象灾害风险评价涉及多源、多维、多尺度空间数据与社会经济统计数据,对应用GIS结合MCE技术进行农业气象灾害风险评价进行了研究。利用特尔菲专家测定法建立评价准则,利用空间划分技术建立评价单元,利用属性值空间化技术实现对气象灾害影响因素空间分布特征进行描述,以空间叠置计算获得多准则条件下空间单元决策目标分值,从而实现区域气象灾害风险区划。研究表明,GIS结合MCE技术能够较好地整合与气象灾害风险评价相关的各类空间数据和社会统计数据,实现气象灾害风险的定量化评价。以冰雪灾害致灾因子评价为例,证明以上技术方法具有可行性。     

近40年河北省地表干燥度的时空变化

利用河北省1970-2007年48个气象台站逐日资料, 采用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量, 由潜在蒸散量和降水量之比构建干燥度指数, 并采用Kriging插值法进行空间插值以分析其区域特征。结果表明:1970-1985年, 由于降水量减少和潜在蒸散量减少, 蒸散量的减少速率大于降水量的减少速率, 地表干燥度指数呈下降趋势, 潜在蒸散量的显著减少是地表干燥度下降的主要原因, 而风速和日照时数的显著降低决定了潜在蒸散量的显著下降; 1986-2007年, 由于年平均气温的显著升高, 潜在蒸散量增加, 使得地表干燥度略呈上升趋势。河北省地表干燥度高值区分布在张家口地区的桑洋盆地和坝西高原, 而低值区主要在燕山南麓低山丘陵地区的承德西南部、唐山的北部和秦皇岛中北部大部分地区。干燥度减少区域主要集中在河北省东北部至河北省西部的带状区域。     

温泉县气候变化对农牧业生产的影响

分析了温泉县历年来基本气候要素的变化,发现本地有着变暖、增湿、平均风速减小等变化趋势,结合对本地农牧业生产的影响提出一些启示。     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene environments in the Nile basin

Owing to the very gently sloping nature of the flood plain in the lower White Nile valley, which is underlain by a former lake-bed, the depositional record in that area is unusually well preserved. In Egypt and along the Blue Nile phases of erosion have destroyed segments of the sedimentary record, but the White Nile sequence is a good proxy for both the main Nile and the Blue Nile. During the last 15 ka, at least, times of high flow in the Blue Nile and main Nile were synchronous with those in the White Nile.Not all the White Nile flood deposits have been preserved but calibrated radiocarbon dates obtained on fossil freshwater and amphibious Pila shells and fish bones indicate that White Nile levels were high around 14.7–13.1 ka, 9.7–9.0 ka, 7.9–7.6 ka, 6.3 ka and 3.2–2.8 ka. The Blue Nile record is more fragmentary and that of the main Nile even more so except for the Holocene Nile delta. Calibrated radiocarbon ages for high Blue Nile flows indicate very high flood levels towards 13.9–13.2 ka, 8.6 ka, 7.7 ka and 6.3 ka.Incision by the Blue Nile and main Nile has caused progressive incision in the White Nile amounting to at least 4 m since the terminal Pleistocene  15 ka ago and at least 2 m over the past 9 ka. The Blue Nile seems to have cut down at least 10 m since  15 ka and at least 4 m since 9 ka. The time-transgressive and relatively late inception of plant domestication in the Nile valley may partly reflect this history of incision. Nile incision would propagate upstream into the White Nile valley, draining previously swampy areas along the valley floor, which would then become accessible to cultivation.     

Little River Experimental Watershed,a keystone in understanding of coastal plain watersheds

The US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service Southeast Watershed Research Laboratory (SEWRL) initiated a hydrologic research program on the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREW) in 1967. Long-term (52 years) streamflow data are available for nine sites, including rainfall-runoff relationships and hydrograph characteristics regularly used in research on interactive effects of climate, vegetation, soils, and land-use in low-gradient streams of the US EPA Level III Southeastern Plains ecoregion. A summary of prior research on the LREW illustrates the impact of the watershed on building a regional understanding of hydrology and water quality. Climatic and streamflow data were used to make comparisons of scale across the nine nested LREW watersheds (LRB, LRF, LRI, LRJ, LRK, LRO, LRN, LRM, and LRO3) and two regional watersheds (Alapaha and Little River at Adel). Annual rainfall for the largest LREW, LRB, was 1200 mm while average annual streamflow was 320 mm. Annual rainfall, streamflow, and the ratio between annual streamflow and rainfall (Sratio) were similar (α = 0.05) across LREWs LRB, LRF, LRI, LRJ, LRK, and LRO. While annual rainfall within the 275 ha LRO3 was found to be similar to LRO and LRM (α = 0.05), annual streamflow and Sratio were significantly different (α = 0.05). Comparisons of annual rainfall, streamflow, and Sratio between LRB and the regional watersheds indicated no differences (α = 0.05). Based upon this analysis, most regional watersheds shared similar hydrologic characteristics. LRO3 was an exception, where increases in row crops and decreases in forest coverage resulted in increased streamflow. LREW data have been instrumental in building considerable scientific understanding of flow and transport processes for these stream systems. Continued operation of the LREW hydrologic network will support hydrologic research as well as environmental quality and riparian research programs that address emerging and high priority natural resource and environmental issues.     

甘肃酒泉市观光农业发展研究

在对甘肃河西走廊酒泉市旅游业发展制定规划的过程中,认识观光农业对于形成普遍的旅游意识和开发旅游资源、完善旅游业结构具有特殊意义。干旱地区观光农业发展有利于农业向可持续方向转变和保持传统文化的延续。酒泉市观光农业发展有赖于地区旅游业的整体发展,在现阶段依附于木地城镇,重点旅游景点和旅游线路。根据这种依附性可以对观光农业资源进行空问分类,将其划分为城郊型、景点依附型、线路依附型和独立型．并据此对现有观光农业加以评价和考虑布局问题。由于绿洲地区城市空间结构的特点．城郊型观光农业具有很大的发展潜力,布局重点也比较明确。景点依附型观光农业可以集中于几个著名的、比较成熟的景点周边。独立型观光农业的发展主要以现有的生态农业开发区为基础,但是依赖于密集的资金投入。在长期内,在广大范围内丰富的绿洲农业资源的基础上发展观光农业,有赖于未来私人汽车旅游的普及和带薪假期制度的实行．以及旅游业充分发展后线路旅游的成熟。特定商业模式和文化资源的加入以及形成新的旅游观念对于其发展极为重要。     

粟类作物稃片植硅体形态研究回顾与展望

中国是粟、黍的起源地,但受植物遗存保存状况及研究方法的限制,对粟类旱作农业起源与驯化的时间、地点、种类、过程等的认识仍然存在不同观点。植硅体分析为准确鉴定粟、黍及其野生祖本和亲缘物种提供了新的途径。本文总结了近几年来针对粟、黍种子稃片植硅体研究取得的新进展,获得以下认识:1)进一步明确了稃片表皮长细胞植硅体的形态特征、大小、数量是鉴定考古文化堆积中粟、黍及其野生祖本和亲缘野生物种的可靠指标;2)通过对比我国北方常见的狗尾草属稃片植硅体,发现了ΩⅢ型仅发育于粟和青狗尾草的稃片中部,且其大小与狗尾草属野生植物差异显著;3)分析和说明了稃片植硅体鉴定流程和方法、重点强调了稃片Ω/η类型的鉴定特征和应用范围,以及植硅体统计量等关键问题;4)讨论了粟类稃片植硅体产量与农作物产量的关系以及植硅体埋藏学问题,最后对深化粟类植硅体形态学研究提出了初步建议。希望通过本文的总结与讨论,能够使植硅体分析方法在粟类作物起源和传播的研究中得到更准确、更广泛的应用。     

商末气候变化对于稻作农业的影响——基于济南大辛庄、刘家庄遗址商代植物遗存观察

气候变化影响着农作物的生长。文章通过对比济南大辛庄遗址中、晚商时期的植物遗存和济南刘家庄遗址商末周初的植物遗存,发现两个遗址主要农作物均包括粟(Setaria italica (L.)Beauv.)、黍(Panicum miliaceum L.)、大豆(Glycine max(L.)Merr.)和小麦(Ttiticum aestivum L.),大辛庄遗址水稻(Oryza sativa L.)绝对数量较多,但刘家庄遗址未发现水稻。综合本地区其他遗址的植物考古研究结果,可以发现山东地区岳石文化时期、商代水稻仍是主要粮食作物之一,但到商末周初水稻数量急剧减少。同时,邻近的中原地区和关中地区,多处商周时期遗址水稻种植也普遍出现萎缩。多项地质记录表明,商末(3000 a B.P.前后)东亚夏季风快速减弱,降水量显著下降。山东地区受东亚季风影响,这一时期降水量减少,难以保证稻作农业所需的持续充足的水源,从而影响到水稻产量和种植规模。因此,商末气候变化很可能是刘家庄遗址商末周初水稻缺失以及山东地区商末周初水稻数量骤降的主要原因之一,也同时影响到整个黄河中下游这一时期的稻作农业。     

Cover crops and precipitation influence soluble reactive phosphorus losses via tile drain discharge in an agricultural watershed

Subsurface tile drainage speeds water removal from agricultural fields that are historically prone to flooding. While managed drainage systems improve crop yields, they can also contribute tothe eutrophication of downstream ecosystems, as tile-drained systems are conduits for nutrients to adjacent waterways. The changing climate of the Midwestern US has already altered precipitation regimes which will likely continue into the future, with unknown effects on tile drain water and nutrient loss to waterways. Adding vegetative cover (i.e., as winter cover crops) is one approach that can retain water and nutrients on fields to minimize export via tile drains. In the current study, we evaluate the effect of cover crops on tile drain discharge and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads using bi-monthly measurements from 43 unique tile outlets draining fields with or without cover crops in two watersheds in northern Indiana. Using four water years of data (n = 844 measurements), we examined the role of short-term antecedent precipitation conditions and variation in soil biogeochemistry in mediating the effect of cover crops on tile drain flow and SRP loads. We observed significant effects of cover crops on both tile drain discharge and SRP loads, but these results were season and watershed specific. Cover crop effects were identified only in spring, where their presence reduced tile drain discharge in both watersheds and SRP loads in one watershed. Varying effects on SRP loads between watersheds were attributed to different soil biogeochemical characteristics, where soils with lower bioavailable P and higher P sorption capacity were less likely to have a cover crop effect. Antecedent precipitation was important in spring, and cover crop differences were still evident during periods of wet and dry antecedent precipitation conditions. Overall, we show that cover crops have the potential to significantly decrease spring tile drain P export, and these effects are resilient to a wide range of precipitation conditions.     

老挝北部Sentinel-2 A/B云覆盖适宜阈值界定及其影像获取概率时空差异

光学卫星影像云覆盖时空特征评估是衡量其作为重要遥感监测数据源的前提。Sentinel-2 A/B影像因其免费获取、多光谱（红边）、更高时空分辨率等优势,已在全球不同尺度陆面植被与生态监测中受到重视。相较于Landsat等同类影像产品,有关Sentinel-2 A/B的云覆盖分析还未见报道。本文利用2016—2018年老挝北部所有5288景Sentinel-2 A/B影像（Granule/Tile）的云覆盖元数据,基于不同云覆盖阈值（0~100%）水平下的影像获取概率差异确定了影像获取概率分析的云覆盖适宜阈值,并揭示了云量特征阈值水平下的影像获取概率时空差异。主要结论如下:① Sentinel-2 A/B影像获取概率分析云覆盖适宜特征阈值为20%（即云覆盖≤20%）,该阈值水平下老挝北部Sentinel-2 A/B影像的逐月累积平均获取概率最高（约27.41%）;② 在20%云覆盖阈值水平下,老挝北部Sentinel-2 A/B影像逐月累积平均获取概率差异在时间上与旱季（11月—次年4月）雨季（5月—10月）的时间分布较为吻合。旱季获取概率约为42.91%,3月概率（50.27%）最大,4月与2月次之,时间上与刀耕火种焚烧与橡胶林落叶特征吻合;雨季相应概率约为11.81%,6月最低（约1.26%）;③ 老挝北部Sentinel-2 A/B影像逐月累积平均获取概率在空间上存在东西差异,旱季西部省域单元（如琅南塔）影像获取概率远高于东部,雨季西部地区影像获取概率则略低于东部地区。本研究既可为后续开展大区及全球Sentinel-2 A/B影像云量分析提供借鉴,也对开展联合国减少森林砍伐和退化排放（UN-REDD）计划引发的土地利用变化如刀耕火种农业演变、橡胶林扩张等遥感监测有指导意义。