Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

Impact cratering - a review,with special reference to the economic importance of impact structures and the Southern African impact crater record

Only since several decades has impact cratering been recognized as an important surface process on all planetary bodies in the Solar System. However, as the process has not yet been effectively introduced into geological curricula, it is necessary to inform a wider public about its importance for (i) planetary formation and (ii) evolution, (iii) the understanding of this process as a geological process, (iv) the terrestrial impact crater record and its limitations, and (v) the recognition criteria for terrestrial impact structures, as well as (vi) the need of improvement of the impact cratering record in the light of the potential danger of an impact catastrophe on this planet. It is, particularly for developing countries, of interest to examine the economic and educational-environmental potential of impact structures. That it is possible to carry out an effective, low-budget geological investigation of impact structures within a Second World environment is demonstrated by the discussion of the progress that has been made in recent years with regard to the Southern African impact crater record. Several recommendations on how to improve, on the one hand, the terrestrial impact crater record and, on the other, their general working situation by activation of workers in Developing Countries are discussed.     

The gawler ranges,South Australia: an unusual volcanic massif

The volcanic residuals of the Gawler Ranges together form an extensive massif that in its gross morphology differs markedly from most exposures of silicic volcanic rocks. The upland developed in two stages, the first involving differential fracture‐controlled subsurface weathering, the second the stripping of the regolith. As a result, an irregular weathering front was exposed, with domical projections prominent. These bornhardts are etch forms, and they are of considerable antiquity.

The differential weathering of the rock mass reflects the exploitation of various fracture systems by shallow groundwaters. Orthogonal fracture systems at various scales, sheet fractures and columnar joints control the morphology of the bornhardts in gross and in detail.

The exploitation of the structural base, which was established in the Middle Protero‐zoic, probably took place throughout the Late Proterozoic and the Palaeozoic, though only minor remnants of the Proterozoic land surface remain. The major landscape features developed during the Mesozoic. The weathering which initiated the bornhardts occurred in the Jurassic or earlier Mesozoic, and the landforms were exposed in Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary times.

Though structural forms dominate the present landscape, some major and some minor landforms are best explained in terms of climatic changes of the later Cainozoic. The palaeodrainage system, established under humid conditions by the Early Tertiary, was alluviated during the Cainozoic arid phases, and salinas were formed. The sand dunes of the region also reflect this aridity.     

Chrysophyte stomatocyst taxonomy — classification of snowflakes?

The utility of classifying chrysophyte stomatocysts by their characteristic honeycomb and ridge patterns is questioned, because a strikingly similar expanding pattern appears on the surface of ionized polymer gels during osmotical swelling as a result of simple physical forces. The rapid accumulation of silicate into a spherical cyst inside a chrysophyte cell appears to be as a physical process sufficiently similar to result in an analogous pattern in microscopic scale. Chrysophyte stomatocysts that possess honeycomb or ridge patterns could be regarded as frozen moments of the pattern evolution during the silicate gel phase. As a consequence, such structures should have little taxonomical value.     

突发性地面增温与临震前兆——以1988年澜沧、耿马7.6,7.2级地震为例

本文通过较多的地面温度资料分析,认为1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马地震前几天,震区及其周围大范围的突发性地面增温异常是一种临震前兆,总结了增温异常的时空演变规律与地震活动的关系,并对其形成机制提出初步想法     

Chemical aspects of iron oxide coagulation in water: Laboratory studies and implications for natural systems

Initial coagulation rates of colloidal hematite (-Fe₂O₃) particles (diameter less than 0.1 µm) were measured experimentally in well-defined laboratory systems at constant temperature. The relative stability ratio,W, was obtained at various ionic strengths in NaCl medium and at pH values in the range from 3 to 12. ExperimentalW values ranged from 1 to 10⁴ in various systems. The results delineate the roles ofspecific andgeneralized coagulation mechanisms for iron oxides. Among the specifically-interacting species (G _ads ⁰ >G _coul ⁰ ) studied were phosphate, monomeric organic acids of various structures, and polymeric organic acids. The critical coagulation-restabilization concentrations of specifically-interacting anions (from 10^–7 to 10^–4 molar) can be compared with the general effects of non-specific electrolyte coagulants (10^–3 to 10^–1 molar). The laboratory results are interpreted with the help of a Surface Complex Formation/Diffuse Layer Model (SCF/DLM) which describes variations of interfacial charge and potential resulting from variations of coagulating species in solution. Comparison of these laboratory experiments with observations on iron behavior in estuarine and lake waters aids in understanding iron removal mechanisms and coagulation time scales in natural systems.     

Application of X-ray computed tomography for analyzing cleat spacing and cleat aperture in coal samples

New techniques to determine distributions of cleat aperture, cleat orientation and cleat spacing from CT scans have been developed. For cleat orientation and spacing distributions, two different coal blocks were scanned. The CT scans have been analyzed for the three orthogonal directions. Histograms of the cleat orientations are bimodal, expressing the typical cleat texture of face and butt cleats and bedding perpendicular relaxation fractures. Deviations up to 20° from the peak values in the cleat orientation distributions were used as input for automated image analysis of cleat spacing. Distributions of the cleat spacing measurements are related to the face and butt cleat directions. The term “relevant cleat length” is introduced as a measure to extract the amount of cleat length involved with the cleat spacing measurements. The ratio ranges from 0.03 to 0.38 and expresses the difference in cleat texture in both samples. Cleat spacing versus relevant cleat length shows sample specific patterns for face cleat, butt cleat and bedding. To describe cleat aperture quantitatively, peak height and missing attenuation have been used. The image of a cleat was seen as a convolution of a rectangular fracture profile with a Gaussian point spread function.     

Environmental impacts from mining at Taojiang Mn ore deposit, central Hunan, China

The Taojiang Mn ore deposit was exploited in the early 1960s, and waste rocks were developed since then. Because the Mn ores were hosted within the metal-enriched black shales （Peng et al., 2004）, the continuous mining has led to the exposure of an immense quality of black shales, which might cause serious impacts on environments. The present study deals with this environmental issue with samples from the waste rocks, and from the surrounding soils and surface water. The mineralogy of the waste rock was studied using EMPA, then a large number of elements in all waste rock, soil, and water samples were analyzed at a wide range of concentrations with high accuracy using an Elan6000 ICP-MS machine at Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The waste rock is composed mostly of black shales, with minor Mn carbonates. Both black shales and Mn carbonates of the waste rock contain many sulfide minerals, mainly pyrite, with minor galena, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, and others. The waste rocks are enriched in many metals including Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Sn, Tl, and others, and the metals are mostly hosted within the sulfides. Weathering of waste rocks might cause emission of the following metals： V, Cd, Ni, Th, U, Mo, Sb, Tl, Sc, Cr, Cu, Zn, Sn, and minor Co, and Pb. The surrounding soils are highly enriched in Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, Mn, Mo, Cd, Tl, and Pb, with the enrichment factors of 2.67.3.8, 7.26, 7.27, 8.2, 5.7, 13, and 5.4, respectively. The element ratios （Rb/Cs, Fe/Mn, Nb/Zr, Hf/Zr, and Ba/Sr） and REE distribution patterns of the soils are similar to those of the waste rocks and bedrocks.     

Speciation of adsorbed arsenate on the surface of hydrous iron oxide

Adsorption of arsenate on hydrous iron oxide is an important process controlling geochemical cycling of arsenic in environment as well as the fate of arsenic-bearing mining wastes. The widely accepted view on the mechanism of adsorption is that arsenate is adsorbed via bidentate binuclear inner-sphere complexation. In this study, we characterized the arsenate-hydrous iron oxide sorption solids synthesized at pH=3-8 using Fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy （FTIR） and X-ray diffraction （XRD）. It has been determined that poorly crystalline ferric arsenate developed on the surface of iron oxide when arsenate was sorbed at acidic pH, while at alkaline pH the adsorption of arsenate was via bidentate complexation.