Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use/cover change on runoff in the lower Connecticut River Basin

Climate change and land use and cover change (LUCC) have had great impacts on watershed hydrological processes. Although previous studies have focused on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on decreasing run‐off change, few studies have examined regions that have significant increasing run‐off due to both climate variability and land cover change. We show that annual run‐off had a significant increasing trend from 1956 to 2014 in the U.S. lower Connecticut River Basin. Abrupt change point years of annual run‐off for four subbasins are detected by nonparametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and reconfirmed by the double mass curve. We then divide the study period into 2 subperiods at the abrupt change point year in the early 1970s for each subbasin. The Choudhury–Yang equation based on Budyko hypothesis was used to calculate precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and landscape elasticities of run‐off. The results show that the difference in mean annual run‐off between 2 subperiods for each subbasin ranged from 102 to 165.6 mm. Climate variations were the primary drivers of increasing run‐off in this region. Quantitative contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in all subbasins are 106.5% and ?3.6% on average, respectively. However, LUCC contributed both positively and negatively to run‐off: ?18.6%, ?13.3%, and 10.1% and 9.9% for 4 subbasins. This may be attributed to historical LUCC occurring after the abrupt change point in each subbasin. Our results provide critical insight on the hydrological dynamics of north‐east tidal river systems to communities and policymakers engaged in water resources management in this region.     

Effects of forest cover change on catchment evapotranspiration variation in China

Several large-scale revegetation programs in China have resulted in significant changes in forest cover (ΔF) during the past three decades. As forests have important effects on catchment hydrology, evaluating the effects of ΔF on hydrology is essential. Using data from 44 catchments across China, this study derived a rational analytical equation to link changes in actual evapotranspiration (ΔET) with those in F within the Budyko framework, and further quantified the effects of ΔF on ET variation during 1976–2015. The elasticity of ET to ΔF was found to be the greatest in the dry catchments in northwest China, followed by the humid catchments in south China, and was the smallest in the subhumid and semiarid catchments in north China. F averaged across all the catchments has increased, and has further led to the increase in ET. The F-ET relationship has become more prominent in the recent decade (2006–2015), with 68.0% of the catchments showing an average increase in F of 4.5% and a resultant average increase in ET of 8.2% compared with the baseline period (1976–1985). These results are helpful for quantitative assessment of hydrological responses to afforestation, especially in water-limited regions.     

中国耕地利用变化驱动下的粮食生产:安全格局分析(英文)

自从1978年改革开放以来,随着经济的迅速发展,中国的耕地利用格局发生了很大的变化。耕地数量和质量的变化直接导致粮食生产的变动。本文利用来自政府部门的农业统计数据,分析了1978-2004年间中国耕地利用水平的时空动态格局,并通过构建"粮耕弹性系数"来反映耕地利用变化与粮食生产的互动关系。研究结果表明:耕地投入的增加和质量的提升在一定程度上缓解了1978年以来我国耕地资源严重流失给粮食生产安全带来的压力;自改革开放以来,中国耕地利用水平呈现由经济快速发展带来的普遍性提升局面,并随着经济发展程度由东南沿海向内陆递减,耕地利用水平的提升速率也呈现由东南沿海向内陆梯级递减态势。然而,耕地集约利用程度的不断提升,并不一定会带来粮食产量的持续稳定增长。耕地集约利用增长的边际效用递减特性,使得中国粮食生产安全的保障已逐步由耕地集约利用水平的提升转向了耕地面积的保护,由此导致耕地资源的数量成为了左右粮食生产安全的关键,这也为当今中国制定严格的耕地保护目标和战略提供了现实的科学依据。     

Applying multi‐parameter runoff elasticity to assess water availability in a changing climate: an example from Texas,USA

Adaptation and mitigation efforts related to global trends in climate and water scarcity must often be implemented at the local, single‐catchment scale. A key requirement is understanding the impact of local climate and watershed characteristics coupled with these regional trends. For surface water, determination of multi‐parameter runoff elasticities is a promising tool for achieving such understanding, as explored here for two surface‐water dependent basins in Texas. The first basin is the water supply for Dallas‐Ft. Worth (DFW), and exhibits relatively high precipitation elasticity (proportional change in runoff to change in precipitation) ε_P = 2.64, and temperature elasticity ε_T = ? 0.41. Standard precipitation–temperature elasticity diagrams exhibit unusual concave contours of runoff change, indicating influence of additional parameters, which can be isolated using multi‐parameter approaches. The most influential local parameter in DFW is unexpected reduced runoff fraction in cooler wetter years. Those years exhibit increased summer (JJA) precipitation fraction, but predominant cracking soils in DFW minimize JJA runoff, yielding negative . A comparative basin near Houston shows positive , reflecting the local impact of tropical cyclones and lesser abundance of cracking soils. Both basins exhibit positive elasticity to 1‐year previous precipitation (e.g. DFW ε_{P ? 1} = 1.24), reflecting the influence of soil moisture storage. Only DFW exhibits negative elasticity to 2‐year previous precipitation (ε_{P ? 2} = ? 0.65), reflecting multi‐year influence of vegetation growth and increased evapotranspiration. Using these elasticities, analysis of historical multi‐decadal climate departures for DFW indicates the 80% decrease in runoff during the 1950–1957 drought of record was primarily caused by reduced precipitation. Runoff 56% above‐normal during an unprecedented 1986–1998 wet period was primarily caused by increased precipitation. Since 2000, despite precipitation slightly above normal, runoff has decreased 20%, primarily in response to ～ 1^°C warming. Future precipitation droughts superimposed on this new drier normal are likely to be much more severe than historical experience would indicate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is irrigation water price an effective leverage for water management? An empirical study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin

Serious water scarcity, low water-use efficiency, and over-exploitation of underground water have hindered socio-economic development and led to environmental degradation in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. Price leveraging is an important tool in water demand management, and it is considered to be effective in promoting water conservation and improving water use efficiency on the premise that water demand is elastic. In the present study, we examine whether price is an effective and applicable instrument for restraining the increasing demand for agricultural irrigation water in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin and how will it affect farmers’ decisions on irrigation and crop structure. Specifically, the price elasticity of agricultural water demand was estimated based on the irrigation water demand function. The results show that the agricultural irrigation water price is statistically significant, but its elasticity is very low under current low water price. Price leverage cannot play a significant role in the context of the current pricing regime and farmers’ response to price increase is intrinsically weak. To create incentives for conserving water and improving irrigation efficiency, price mechanism should be accompanied with clearly defined and legally enforceable water rights, restricted water quota measures, and reform of water authorities and water-user associations. Furthermore, increases of surface irrigation water price may lead to the over-withdrawal of groundwater, consequently, effective groundwater licensing and levying must take place to limit the total volume of groundwater withdrawal. In all, improving irrigation efficiency through better management and the adoption of water-saving technologies is the ultimate way to deal with the challenges facing irrigated agriculture in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin.     

气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀水源区径流的影响(英文)

As the largest wetland in the North China Plain(NCP),the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP.In the past few decades,the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate variability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmental issues.In this study,we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake,based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment(a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin) from 1960 to 2008.Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities.The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly(P>0.05) by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identified around the year 1980.The quantification results indicated that climate variations accounted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow,while human activities accounted for 60%-62%.Therefore,the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake.To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake,we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and integrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.     

Analytical and Numerical Study of the Mechanics of Rockbolt Reinforcement around Tunnels in Rock Masses

Summary  This paper addresses the problem of quantifying the mechanical contribution of rockbolts installed systematically around tunnels excavated in rock masses. The mechanical contribution referred to here is that of increased stress confinement and decreased tunnel convergences as compared with corresponding stresses and displacements obtained for non-reinforced tunnels. The problem is treated analytically first by presenting a closed-form solution for stress and displacement distributions around a circular tunnel excavated in elastic material and reinforced by grouted or anchored rockbolts. The analytical solution assumes that rockbolts are regularly spaced around the tunnel and that axi-symmetry conditions of geometry and loading apply. The results obtained with the closed-form solution are shown to be equivalent to the results of the same problem solved with traditional numerical methods. Based on the analytical and numerical results and by introducing dimensionless ratios that allow to quantify the increase of radial stresses and the decrease of radial displacements in the reinforced region of the tunnel, the paper shows that reinforcement can have a significant mechanical effect (i.e., increasing the confinement and decreasing the convergences) in tunnels excavated in rock masses of poor to very poor quality. The paper analyzes then the mechanical contribution of rockbolt reinforcement when the rock mass is assumed to behave elasto-plastically. For this case, it is shown that rockbolt reinforcement can also have a critical effect in controlling the extent of the plastic failure zone and the convergences of the tunnel. Correspondence: C. Carranza-Torres, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, Duluth Campus, 1305 Ordean Court, Duluth, USA     

小湾水电站坝址区低高程岸坡表生改造特征及机制研究

摘要:小湾水电站坝基、水垫塘边坡及低高程排水洞系统广泛地揭示了低高程岸坡的地质特征。基于现场调查和二维弹塑性有限元分析,深化认识了低高程岸坡表生改造特征:（1）它是在建造和构造改造的基础上进行的:原构造缓倾角节理扩展、错动;陡倾角节理扩展、产状改变以及错动;新生了大量中缓倾角裂隙;表生改造程度向坡内减弱。（2）建立了低高程岸坡表生改造缓裂生成机制模型,分析了其生成过程。（3）在二维弹塑性有限元分析中,基于拉破坏区分布、剪应变和点安全度等指标,分析了低高程岸坡卸荷松弛范围,其中谷底表生改造明显影响深度为6~9m。     

Stress–Strain Behaviour of Flowable Fill

Flowable fill is a self-levelling and self-compacting, cementitious material which is primarily used as a backfill. It is a mixture of fine aggregates, small amount of cement, water and a by-product material. In this present experimental study, three industrial by-products namely fly ash, rice husk ash and quarry dust were used as constituent materials in flowable fill. Mix proportions were developed for different combination of these industrial by-products, in addition to small amount of cement content. The main objective of the present investigation is to study the stress–strain behaviour of these mixes, namely unconfined compressive strength (UCS), strain corresponding to peak stress, strain corresponding to fracture and modulus of elasticity. In addition, several mixes were tested for few other properties such as flowability, density, water-absorption and volume changes. The range of strengths, strains and moduli of elasticity obtained for these flowable fill mixtures represents different types of clay soils ranging from soft clays to very stiff clays. Thus, industrial by-products such as fly ash, rice husk ash and quarry dust can be beneficially added in flowable fill that offers comparable strengths to soils used for conventional fills and many other low-strength applications.     

全球矿产资源需求周期与趋势

依据矿产资源需求"S"形理论原理,按照经济发展程度把全球各国划分为4四个国家集团和3个典型国家,以1950—2014年钢、铜、铅、锌消费量和GDP总量为对象,概略论述了全球资源消费的3个周期,系统分析了各国家集团在不同周期对全球资源消费增长的贡献率,以及资源需求弹性的变化规律,指出大国工业化和全球经济周期决定资源需求周期,认为当前全球矿产资源需求的低迷状态还将进一步深化,至少将延续3~5年。