GDELT数据网络化挖掘与国际关系分析

21世纪以来的国际关系错综复杂、瞬息万变,给世界的经济、安全、外交等带来了深刻变化。这些变化对中国的内外政策产生了重大影响。全面及时地分析国际关系及其变化特征,对于中国的经济和外交发展规划具有重要参考价值。国际关系研究具有复杂性、及时性、时空性等特点,迫切需要时空大数据分析技术为其提供新的思路和技术手段。大众媒体如报纸、广播等记录着世界上发生的各种各样的事件,蕴含着丰富的信息,相对于记录个人活动的社交媒体数据,其更加适合于对人类社会进行大规模和长时间的分析。GDELT是一个免费开放的新闻数据库,它实时监测世界上印刷、广播、网络媒体中的新闻,对其进行文本分析并提取出人物、地点、组织和事件等关键信息。本文利用复杂网络的理论和方法对GDELT进行网络化挖掘并进一步分析国家关系。首先利用该数据构建国家交互网络,然后通过网络特征统计分析国家之间的交互关系,最后探测国家冲突事件交互网络的时序变化。研究发现：① 国家交互网络具有无标度特性,网络连接在整体和局部上都呈现出不均匀性,少数国家与其他国家有大量交互,大多数国家与其他国家的交互很少;一个国家与少数国家有大量交互,而与大多数国家的交互很少。② 国家冲突事件交互网络的突然变化往往对应一些重大事件。本文的研究可以为大数据时代的国际关系探索提供一个新的视角,同时也为新闻媒体数据的分析提供参考。     

Location choices of Chinese enterprises in Southeast Asia: The role of overseas Chinese networks

Journal of Geographical Sciences - With the implementation of the “Going out” strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s investments have become increasingly influential...     

Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.     

Hierarchical community detection and functional area identification with OSM roads and complex graph theory

An in-depth analysis of the urban road network structure plays an essential role in understanding the distribution of urban functional area. To concentrate topologically densely connected road segments, communities of urban roads provide a new perspective to study the structure of the network. In this study, based on OpenStreetMap (OSM) roads and points-of-interest (POI) data, we employ the Infomap community detection algorithm to identify the hierarchical community in city roads and explore the shaping role roads play in urban space and their relation with the distribution of urban functional areas. The results demonstrate that the distribution of communities at different levels in Guangzhou, China reflects the urban spatial relation between the suburbs and urban centers and within urban centers. Moreover, the study explored the functional area characteristics at the community scale and identified the distribution of various functional areas. Owing to the structure information contained in the identification process, the detected community can be used as a basic unit in other urban studies. In general, with the community-based network, this study proposes a novel method of combining city roads with urban space and functional zones, providing necessary data support and academic guidance for government and urban planners.     

Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.     

利用半参数模型估计确定验潮组网的深度基准面

深度基准面的确定是进行海洋测量的基础,准确确定深度基准面是进行海洋测量的有效前提。提出了一种将CORS技术与验潮组网技术进行结合的新传递深度基准面的方法,实现长、短期验潮站同步验潮实现深度基准面的增强传递;提出了采用半参数模型理论来求取潮差比的计算方法;具体阐述了验潮组网通过间接平差求取短期验潮站的深度基准面的计算方法,减少了验潮测量的人力投入,计算潮差比时考虑了系统误差的影响,计算短期验潮站时考虑了观测误差对深度基准面传递的影响。     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

大面积水深异常检测的条件变化自编码算法

针对大面积海底地形数据缺失或异常的复杂及多变性特点,结合条件变分自编码器(CVAE)与深度卷积生成对抗网络(DCGAN),构建了条件变分自编码生成对抗网络(CVAE-GAN)大面积海底伪地形的检测与剔除方法。本文方法利用条件变分自编码算法改变原有的样本分布,通过对训练样本的学习重新构建样本之间的分布规律,有效提高了高维到低维映射的稳定性;结合生成对抗网络,提高了整体算法的稳健性,最终得到较优的检测与剔除结果。采用水深格网数据进行试验,并与中值滤波法、趋势面滤波法进行比较。结果表明,本文方法在精度、稳定性及噪声稳健性方面有所提高,验证了本文方法在海底地形数据处理上具有可行性。     

一种顾及道路复杂度的增量路网构建方法

针对传统路网采集和更新需要昂贵的实地测量以及大量的后续内业处理问题,提出了一种从大规模粗糙轨迹数据中自动生成路网的方法。该方法包含轨迹滤选和路网增量构建两步:第1步通过构建空间、时间、逻辑约束的规则模型,在消除数据中的噪音和冗余的同时,将原始轨迹进行合理分割,滤选形成规范轨迹集合;第2步基于信息熵计算轨迹点周围道路的复杂度,据此自动调节道路分割参数,不断将新产生的路段加入到路网,同时计算道路平均交通流量和速度等路况信息,遍历各规范轨迹的定位点重复以上处理过程,最终得到完整路网。通过昆明市200辆出租车采集的约6851万条轨迹数据进行路网构建试验,并与OpenStreetMap数据比较,证明了本文方法的有效性。与已有典型方法比较,本文方法能用更少节点提取更高质量的路网。