中国大陆地区生态诅咒效应的多尺度实证检验

基于生态系统服务理论界定生态福祉概念及其表征、评价方法,借鉴资源诅咒理论,提出广义生态福祉视域下的生态祝福及生态诅咒假说,结合有关年度统计数据、以中国大陆地区为例展开实证分析。结果表明：① 从人均生态福祉来看,全国范围内的绝对生态诅咒假设不成立,东、西部地区生态祝福效应显著;② 从农林牧渔产业从业人员比例来看,全国及地区层面的条件生态诅咒假设均不成立,东部地区生态祝福效应显著;③ 从农林牧渔产业产值比例来看,全国及地区层面的条件生态诅咒假设均显著成立。自然生态系统为提高区域人均生态福祉、吸纳富余劳动力就业等贡献显著,但促进地区经济社会发展还需不断降低农林牧渔产业产值在国民经济中的比例。未来,中国应当进一步实施因地制宜的生态保护措施以规避生态诅咒,并通过因时制宜的经济社会发展规划促进生态祝福效应。     

Geographies of crisis in Greece: A social well-being approach

The most prominent ‘victim’ of the global financial crisis in 2007/2008 has been Greece, which is, even now, in the middle of an economic and social storm that is threatening its economic and social cohesion and its membership of the Eurozone. Using the social well-being conceptual framework as a benchmark and exploiting the literature of composite indicators, the paper aims to assess and measure the regional impact of the crisis in a systematic and comprehensive way. Differing from most of previous studies, both at national and international levels, this study is based on the assumption that the effects of the crisis go far beyond economics and create a social crisis strongly associated with significant human and social costs that might transform Greece’s regional status and threaten its regional well-being, probably in a very unequal way. The main finding of the analysis is that although all regions were severely affected by the dynamics and intensity of the crisis, some regions were more affected than others, leading to ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. From a policy point of view, the results of this study have serious implications for crisis management, recovery policy actions and a country’s social cohesion, especially in Greece where austerity policy measures not only imposed considerable cutbacks in regional development policies but also ignored the spatial dimension of the crisis.     

Methods for probabilistic assessments of geologic hazards

Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects (1) identifing sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that have been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist.Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Probabilities are required for events that are the greatest or rarest because they commonly will have the greatest consequences; the largest, or rarest, events always fall in tails of frequency distributions. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data.In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Alternative solutions may involve consequence analysis which may demonstrate that, although an event may occur, its consequences are sufficiently small that it safely may be ignored or by establishing bounds which may demonstrate that although probabilities are not known they cannot exceed a maximum value that is sufficiently small so that associated risk may be considered to be negligible.Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Latin America: Case Studies . Richard G. Boehm and Sent Visser Locality and Rurality: Economy and Society in Rural Regions . Tony Bradley And Philip Lowe The City and the Grassroots . Manuel Castells Geopolitics and Conflict in South America. Quarrels among Neighbors . Jack Child Post-Industrial America: A Geographical Perspective . David Clark Coastal Research: UK Perspectives . Malcolm W. Clark A Rural Policy for the EEC? Hugh Clout Peasant Agriculture in Assam: A Structural Analysis . M. M. Das . Environmental Change and Tropical Geomorphology . I. Douglas and T. Spencer Advances in Abandoned Settlement Analysis: Application to Prehistoric Anthrosols in Colombia, South America . Robert C. Eidt Measuring Culture . Jonathan L. Gross and Steve Rayner North America: A Human Geography . Paul Guinness and Michael Bradshaw A Geographical Bibliography for American Libraries . Chauncy D. Harris et al. Geography and the Urban Environment: Progress in Research and Applications, Vol. VI . D. T. Herbert and R. J. Johnston Changes in Global Climate: A Study of the Effect of Radiation and Other Factors During the Present Century . K. Ya . Kondrat'ev . Rural Development and the State: Contradictions and Dilemmas in Developing Countries . David A. M. Lea and D. P. Chaudhri The Martial Metropolis: U.S. Cities in War and Peace . Roger W. Lotchin The Climate of the Earth . Paul E. Lydolph . Weather and Climate . Paul E. Lydolph . Spatial Divisions of Labor: Social Structures and the Geography of Production . Doreen Massey . Panorama of the Soviet Union . N. Mikhailov . Soviet Armenia . K. S. Demirchian . USSR: Geography of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period . K. Spidchenko . Planung und Verwirklichung der Wiener Ringstrassenzone (Planning and Materialization of the Ringstrasse-Zone of Vienna). Kurt Mollik , Hermann Reining , Rudolf Wurzer . The American West Transformed: The Impact of the Second World War Gerald D. Nash . An Overview of the Survey of Income and Program Participation . Dawn Nelson , David Mc Millen, and Daniel Kasprzyk . Phenomenology, Science and Geography: Spatiality and the Human Sciences . John Pickles . Biological Diversification in the Tropics . Ghillean T. Prance Die Wanderviehwirtschaft im gebirgigen Westen der U.S.A. und ihre Auswirkungen im Naturraum . Gisbert Rinschede . Social and Economic Aspects of Radioactive Waste Disposal: Considerations for Institutional Management . World-Wide Weather . K. Takahashi Coastal Geomorphology in Australia . B. G. Thom Settlement System in Rural India: A Case Study of the Lower Ganga-Yamuna Doab . Ram Chandra Tiwari . Computer Programming for Geographers . David J. Unwin and John A. Dawson . Late Quaternary Environments of the Soviet Union . A. A. Velichko, ed . H. E. Wright , Jr. and C. W. Barnosky Ethics in Planning . Martin Wachs     

生态系统评估的概念、内涵及挑战——介绍《生态系统与人类福利：评估框架》

综合已有的生态学数据和知识,对生态系统进行科学的评估,以确保对生态系统的保护和合理利用,是人类福利及其可持续发展的重要保障。结合国际上“千年生态系统评估”计划的最新成果,对生态系统评估的概念和内涵进行了详细的阐述。生态系统及其服务功能与人类福利之间的联系是生态系统评估的核心,因此,生态系统评估的概念框架主要包括：生态系统及其服务功能、人类福利与消除贫困、生态系统及其服务功能变化的驱动力、生态系统不同尺度间的相互作用和评估,以及生态系统的价值与评价等基本概念。对以上基本概念和内涵及它们之间的相互关系的准确理解和把握是开展生态系统评估的前提条件。当前,在生态系统及其服务功能评估的综合性、驱动力分析和评估尺度的选定等方面尚面临挑战,仍需进行深入探讨。     

How are healthy,working populations affected by increasing temperatures in the tropics? Implications for climate change adaptation policies

Climate change and land use change are increasing average and extreme temperatures. Hotter temperatures can detrimentally affect workers’ health and their economic productivity and livelihoods, especially in rural areas in industrializing countries that may be more vulnerable and less resilient. A growing literature has examined these factors at large spatial scales, yet few studies have done so at finer scales. Micro-level data from developing regions is needed to understand the extent of heat exposure, as well as current and future adaptation strategies of working, healthy, and rural populations. We fill this gap using objective environmental measurements from 3M^TM Questemp^TM 46 Heat Stress Monitors, as well as survey data from working, healthy, and rural communities in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Our data contain two groups: those who work in only open areas, and those who work in both forests and open areas. We document workers’ livelihood strategies, work schedules, perceptions of how temperatures impact their work, and future adaptation strategies for even hotter days. Ambient temperatures are 2.6–8.3 °C cooler in forests compared to open areas, indicating the temperature effects of deforestation can be immediate and significant. Those working only in open areas face up to 6.5 h of exposure to temperatures above the accepted Threshold Limit Value for worker well-being. Workers adapt to hotter temperatures by altering the timing of their work shifts and breaks, indicating our sample is already adapting to increasing temperatures from climate and land use change. We also find differential adaptation strategies between those working only in open areas compared to those working in both forests and open areas, suggesting current acclimatization may be a factor in how people adapt. Our results suggest the need for adaptation and mitigation policies tailored to the unique constraints of rural workers that specifically incorporate extant adaptation strategies.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区生态系统服务对人类福祉的影响及其群体差异

生态系统服务对人类福祉的影响研究对于分析区域生态系统的社会贡献及有效减贫等方面具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文以地处黄土丘陵沟壑区的陕西省米脂县为例,在整合主客观人类福祉的基础上,基于生态系统服务可得性评估,利用结构方程模型定量分析了生态系统服务对人类福祉的影响及其群体差异。结果如下：① 生态系统服务对客观福祉和主观福祉具有显著正向影响,并通过客观福祉对主观福祉产生间接影响。农户属性对生态系统服务和客观福祉直接效应显著,对主观福祉直接效应不显著。② 生态系统服务对人类福祉的影响存在群体差异,纯农型与兼业型的服务可得性对客观福祉直接效应显著,而非农型不显著;纯农型与兼业型的服务可得性对主观福祉的直接效应明显大于非农型,且非农型间接效应不显著;非农型客观福祉对主观福祉的影响明显高于纯农型与兼业型。③ 生态系统服务对人类福祉影响的因子贡献与服务组合存在群体差异,即三类群体生态系统服务对福祉影响的差异不仅体现在服务类型及影响程度上,还体现在服务组合的差异上。     

克服地质统计学矿床建模中主观因素影响技术研究

精确的矿石储量估算是矿山设计、生产及管理的重要依据，地质统计学方法由于其考虑了区域化变量的结构性和随机性的二重性特征，获得了日益广泛的应用。然而，由于地质统计学方法是建立在一定假设的基础上，再加之各种主观因素的影响，地质统计学储量估算往往存在一定的偏差。在总结前人工作及地质统计学储量估算工作经验的基础上，认为影响估值精度的因素可归纳为两个方面：矿床具体条件及取样情况(客观因素)；储量计算时的处理手段和方法(主观因素)，提出克服主观因素是解决偏差产生的重要途径，对主要主观因素的影响及解决办法提出了较为详尽的论述。