西南天山复杂地层绳索取心钻探跑钻事故处理方法

新疆西南天山萨尔干矿区地层极其破碎复杂,近年来施工的钻孔多全孔破碎、漏失,钻进过程中时有掉块、卡钻、钻孔坍塌等现象发生,严重时发生孔内事故,施工难度较大。本文结合该区一例钻孔施工案例,介绍了破碎复杂地层取心钢丝绳断裂导致岩心内管脱落,进而引发严重跑钻事故的处理过程以及注意事项。结合现场事故情况,通过导向扩孔钻进等方法有效地处理了该起复杂事故,使钻孔得以顺利终孔,取得了所需地质资料,挽回了经济损失。     

怒江大坝建设中的各方博弈分析

在怒江上修建大坝是否可行,引起了社会各界的广泛争议。赞成者和反对者各执一词,使得怒江大坝工程的上马被迫搁浅。应用博弈论的方法可以分析在怒江大坝建设的论证过程中,中央政府、环保人士和当地人民的利益关系,并且可以证明在没有环境保护法律的保障下,环保评价的弊端。通过对各方博弈的分析,说明了政府在进行怒江大坝建设的决策过程中,必须高瞻远瞩,以全社会的可持续发展为根本出发点,同时要兼顾当地人民的利益,并要以此为基础制定出一套科学的工程建设环境评价法律。     

气候变化背景下北极利益博弈与风险评估——建模与仿真

鉴于北极风险评估中定量数据匮乏、定性知识难以定量化和权重要素确定中主观性强等困难,传统的风险评估方法无法有效解决。通过引入"云模型"实现了定性知识的量化表达;运用模糊层次分析法提高了权重的客观性;针对气候变化背景下北极区域响应及其地缘格局变化和利益博弈问题,运用上述改进方法和技术途径对北极地区利益博弈和安全风险进行了评估建模和实验仿真,提出了一些研究见解和决策咨询信息。     

三亚市季节性旅游移民社会融合对主观幸福感的影响

以旅游消费移民的代表性群体——季节性旅游移民为对象,构建季节性旅游移民社会融合对主观幸福感影响的概念模型,并提出相关假设;以典型的旅居城市三亚为案例地,运用结构方程模型对假设进行验证。研究表明：季节性旅游移民的文化融合对主观幸福感的影响较小,仅对正面情绪有显著的正向影响;而心理融合和身份融合均正向显著作用于主观幸福感的生活满意和正面情绪2个维度,且对负面情绪有显著抑制作用。基于实证分析,从文化融合、身份融合、心理融合等层面提出季节性旅游移民主观幸福感的提升策略。     

基于模糊综合评判方法的遥感影像压缩主观质量评价

介绍遥感影像压缩的主观评价方法及其分类,并应用模糊综合评判方法对采用JPEG2000标准和SPIHT改进算法压缩后的重建影像进行质量评价。评价结果表明:随着压缩比增加,两种压缩算法压缩后的影像质量均逐渐下降;当压缩比不超过4∶1时,两种压缩算法得到的影像效果均较好,与原始影像差别不大;当压缩比相同时,JPEG2000算法的压缩效果略好于SPIHT算法;在地形较复杂的丘陵和山地,两种压缩算法压缩后的影像质量下降,影像失真较严重。     

意义概念的三个模型

弗雷格首先把意义概念引入分析哲学,其真正目的是坚持思想有公认的确定的正确与错误之分,为思想的客观分析提供基础,但其借助的意义即思想的实体化却有违于这个初衷。直接经验论者从直接经验论立场出发,企图在经验世界中找意义,最后走向否定意义本身,分析哲学由此遭到重创。从语言、思想、世界的关系的高度,把弗雷格的意义理论、观念论、用法论的合理精神结合起来,构建了语境—思想意义模型,认为语言的意义既是主观的东西,同时又具有特殊的客观性:由公共客观的语境决定的确定性。语言的意义就是特定语境中的语言所表达的人们的思想。     

基于电子化供应链管理的动态定价数学模型的研究

随着不确定性因素在商业交易中的越来越突出的影响，考虑价格随机波动的动态定价研究成为管理经济学的重要课题。作者把随机误差所带来的不确定因素引入制造商主导定价数学模型，引入零售价格的期望、方差和转移价格的期望，将不完全信息博弈转化为完全信息博弈，并结合最优生产和存储模型，运用泛函极值方法解决供方先动需方后动的转移价格定价问题。获得了最优转移价格的预期龙的结构模型和预期价格与价格波动的比例关系，进而指出掌握定价主动权的制造商一方掌控了大部分利润。     

Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation II. The value of players’ information availability and cooperative behaviors

Stochastic dynamic game models can be applied to derive optimal reservoir operation policies by considering interactions among water users and reservoir operator, their preferences, their levels of information availability and cooperative behaviors. The stochastic dynamic game model with perfect information (PSDNG) has been developed by [Ganji A, Khalili D, Karamouz M. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information. Adv Water Resour, this issue]. This paper develops four additional versions of stochastic dynamic game model of water users interactions based on the cooperative behavior and hydrologic information availability of beneficiary sectors of reservoir systems. It is shown that the proposed models are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies when compared with alternative operating models, as indicated by several reservoir performance characteristics. Among the proposed models, the selected model by considering cooperative behavior and additional hydrologic information (about the randomness nature of reservoir operation parameters), as exercised by reservoir operator, provides the highest attained level of performance and efficiency. Furthermore, the selected model is more realistic since it also considers actual behavior of water users and reservoir operator in the analysis.     

Environmental economics of the Khangchendzonga National Park in the Sikkim Himalaya, India

A contingent valuation survey was conducted involving local community members, domestic and foreign visitors to estimate the environmental economics of the Khangchendzonga National Park and to elicit their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for its maintenance and conservation. Using a random survey, the average WTP was US$ 8.84 for foreign visitors per visit, followed by US$ 6.20 per household per year by local community members and US$ 1.91 per domestic visitor per visit for improvement in environmental conservation. The WTP was strongly influenced by age, education and income. The present study demonstrated that the contingent valuation method (CVM) is a promising approach, however it lacks inclusion of non-monetary contributions. The WTP for environmental management by the local communities was mostly in kind or time for services. The CVM can be a useful tool for decision-makers regarding investment and policy purposes for management of biodiversity hot spots and protected areas in developing countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

北京居民主观幸福感评价及影响因素研究

随着生活水平的提高,越来越多的居民开始重视自身生活的幸福程度.学术界对个体主观幸福感的关注虽然由来已久,但是鲜见从地理学角度出发的研究,尤其是评价影响主观幸福感的因素.本文以北京为例,基于大规模问卷调查,构建了个体主观幸福感影响因素框架,分析了不同社会属性人群的主观幸福感差异,并利用多元线性回归模型测度了制度与政策等因素对个体主观幸福感的影响.结果发现:不同社会经济属性个体的主观幸福感差异明显;制度因素对个体幸福感有显著影响,拥有本地户口居民的主观幸福感显著高于外地户口居民;工作时间和通勤时间的增加都能降低个体的主观幸福感;迁居能提高个体的生活满意度,然而频繁迁居和更换工作却会降低个体的生活满意度.