唐山地震区的地壳形变及强震重复时间预测

无论是地震前、还是地震后，在国内所有大震区中，唐山地震区的垂直形变资料都是最丰富的。作者在研究这些资料以后发现，唐山地震区的地壳形形变，在１９６７年以前经历了相当长的缓慢奖速的变化过程，１９６７－１９６９年全区出现了加速上升，紧接着转为快速下降和不稳定变化，根据宁河的流动水准测量资料推测，临震前地震断层发生了无震蠕动。大震发生时，全区出现了大幅度的同震形变。大震发生之后，地壳形变的速率随着余震的衰     

达尔布特断裂中段构造活动性

研究了达尔布转断裂中段第四纪沉积物的分布特征，阶地变形，冲洪积扇变形，断层陡坎展布及探槽揭露等方面的内容，认为达尔布特断裂中段的活动以左旋走滑为主，晚更新世晚期以来垂直活动速率在０．０１１ｍｍ／ａ，水平活动速率为０．２０～０．２２ｍｍ／ａ；且至少有２次明显活动，全新世最后１次活动可能为古地震事件，时间距今约４０００～４５００年左右，研究结果表明，达尔布特断裂中段具有发生强烈的构造条件。     

地震的多重分形统计特征研究

讨论了地震分布的多重分形统计特征。研究地震多重分形性质的计算方法及其应用于地震预报的可能性。采用推广Ｇｒａｓｓｂｅｒｇｅｒ－Ｐｒｏｃａｃｃｉａ算法从典型震区的地震数据计算地震多重分形分布的广义维数谱以确立较敏感的强震前兆，讨论了该算法的精度，数据量要求及适用范围。     

孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分

提出了孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分其参数确定的思路和方法，即在综合考虑孤立中强地震所在地震区的总体地震构造特征与地震活动水平的基础上，利用历史地震等震线，余震分布，区域应力场及震源机制等资料，确定其潜在震源区的参数。     

京西北延庆—怀来盆地的QSH值和小震震源参数的测定

用在一个地震台接上到的同一震源区内的较小地震的振幅谱去除大地震的振幅谱，求得较大地震震源同频趋势的斜率。利用Ｑ值在０．０００１－１００Ｈｚ之间几乎是常数是特性，用网格搜寻法对较大地震的振幅谱因衰减造成的损耗进行补偿，同时确定自震源对地震吧途径上的介持的品质因数、拐角频率和补偿后的频谱的零频极限。用这种方法，利用中－欧合作北京西北怀来数字地震台网的记录，确定了延庆－怀来盆地的品质因数ＱＳＨ值并测定了     

中国南北地震带1900年以来强震的时空分布特征及其预报意义

根据１９００年以来发生在南北地震带上的大震资料。分析了研究强震的时空分布认为：（１）南北地震带地震主体活动地区每幕往南平均滑移约３００公里。（２）从１９８８年开幕的南北地震带第Ⅳ个地震活动跃幕在１９９６年２月３日云南丽江７．０级地震后可能已接近闭幕。该带的地震活动性可能会逐渐减弱。     

Estimation of source parameters of Chamoli Earthquake, India

The devastating earthquake (mb = 6.6) at Chamoli, Garhwal Himalaya, which occurred in the morning hours on 29th March 1999, was recorded on Delhi Strong Motion Accelerograph (DSMA) Network operated by the Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee. In this paper the source parameters of this event calculated from the Strong Motion Data are presented. The seismic moment for this event has been found to be of the order of 10²⁵ dyne.cm and the moment magnitude has been calculated in the range of 6.53–6.69 at different stations. The stress drop and source radius for the earthquake are also calculated.     

Statistical analysis of strong-motion accelerograms and its application to earthquake early-warning systems

In view of increasing damage due to earthquakes, and the current problems of earthquake prediction, real-time warning of strong ground motion is attracting more interest. In principle, it allows short-term warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. With warning times of up to tens of seconds it is possible to send alerts to potential areas of strong shaking before the arrival of the seismic waves and to mitigate the damage, but only if the seismic source parameters are determined rapidly. The major problem of an early-warning system is the real-time estimation of the earthquake's size.
We investigated digitized strong-motion accelerograms from 244 earthquakes that occurred in North and Central America between 1940 and 1986 to find out whether their initial portions reflected the size of the ongoing earthquake. Applying conventional methods of time-series analyses we calculate appropriate signal parameters and describe their uncertainties in relation to the magnitude and epicentral distance. The study reveals that the magnitude of an earthquake can be predicted from the first second of a single accelerogram within ±1.36 magnitude units. The uncertainty can be reduced to about ±0.5 magnitude units if a larger number (≥8) of accelerograms are available, which requires a dense network of seismic stations in areas of high seismic risk.