Early Estimation of Strong Aftershock Duration Time

In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given.     

Relocation of the October 9, 1505 Earthquake with M63/4

There have been 12 possible locations of the earthquakes occurring in the South Yellow Sea since 1505.In this paper,the location of the earthquake that occurred in 1505 has been determined by the collection of more historical data of the influenced field,referring the isoseismal data of earthquakes with the epicentral intensityⅨ and combining geophysical field data with tectonic condition,due to its great influence on seismic safety assessment of some significant engineering.     

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M ≥ 6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

Introduction Haiyuan fault is a major seismogenic fault in north-central China. One of the most devastat-ing great earthquake in the 20th century occurred near Haiyuan in northwestern China on Decem-ber 16, 1920. More than 220 000 people were killed and thousands of towns and villages weredestroyed during the devastating earthquake. A 230 km long left-lateral surface rupture zone wasformed along the Haiyuan fault during the earthquake with maximum left-lateral displacement of10 m. Pale…     

深部热流体上涌对天水强震区深部发震环境形成演化过程的影响作用

通过与肯尼亚Gregory地堑的深部构造的对比分析，本研究了天水强震区深部发震环境的形成演化过程及其主要特征，探讨了深部热流体上涌在该地区深部发震环境形成演化过程中所起的重要作用，为进一步研究该地区前兆形成机理打下基础。     

The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed. Foundation item: National important fundamental research “The Basic Research of Important Project in Damage Environment” and The important project “The Seismic Hazard Assessment Research and Anti-earthquake Structure Research” from China Earthquake Administration during the 10th Five-year Plan. Contribution No. 04FE1008, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

On the Incorporation of the Effect of Crustal Structure into Empirical Strong Ground Motion Estimation

This article has two purposes. Firstly, a validation exercise of the modal summation technique for the computation of synthetic strong-motion records is performed for two regions of Europe (Umbria-Marche and south Iceland), using a variety of region specific crustal structure models, by comparing the predicted ground motion amplitudes with observed motions. It is found that the rate of decay of ground motions is well predicted by the theoretical decay curves but that the absolute size of the ground motions is underpredicted by the synthetic time-histories. This is thought to be due to the presence of low-velocity surface layers that amplify the ground motions but are not included in the crustal structure models used to compute the synthetic time-histories. Secondly, a new distance metric based on the computed theoretical decay curves is introduced which should have the ability to model the complex decay of strong ground motions. The ability of this new distance metric to reduce the associated scatter in empirically derived equations for the estimation of strong ground motions is tested. It is found that it does not lead to a reduction in the scatter but this is thought to be due to the use of crustal structure models that are not accurate or detailed enough for the regions studied. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

3-D finite element modeling for evolution of stress field and interaction among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Introduction Sichuan-Yunnan region is a major area with frequent strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland, especially the middle-southern segment of South-North Seismic Zone, where many strong earth-quakes occurred in history. In the past 30 years, Sichuan-Yunnan region has two seismically active periods: one is from Tonghai earthquake in 1970 to Longling-Songpan earthquake in 1976, the other is from Lancang earthquake in 1988 to now. During this two periods, the M=7.7 Tonghai, M=7.1 Dagua…     

山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

2003年7月上旬张家界特大暴雨山洪分析

对造成 2 0 0 3年 7月 8～ 1 0日张家界特大暴雨山洪的主要影响系统、物理量诊断场资料、多普勒雷达回波资料及自动气象站要素进行了分析 ,并重点分析了张家界特定的地形条件对降水的增幅作用及暴雨的夜发特征 ,为湘西北的暴雨山洪预报提供了一些有益的启示。     

应用GMS5多通道云图估计降水技术的研究

对近两年来5～8月中国东部地区120多个测站雨量观测资料和对应4400多幅GMS-5四个通道云图的研究发现：红外亮温的时间、空间变率、红外和水汽通道亮温差等云图衍生资料对消除卷云，弥补夜间缺少可见光云图的不足起到明显作用。从而，应用双判据双重MOS多元回归法建立四通道云图因子、衍生因子与降水量之间的回归方程，进行6小时分级降水估计。为了进一步消除厚卷云和特殊地形的影响，提出使用逐日实时资料自动建立多元回归方程估计降水量，从而对双判据双重MOS多元回归法估计结果进行校正。上海中心气象台的业务使用表明，总体估计的准确率达70％左右。